Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
Long under the radar of international investors, Uzbekistan’s real estate market is scaling up. Between a construction boom, the rising role of mortgage lending, surging then cooling prices, a growing rental market, and the arrival of foreign capital, the sector is entering a phase of profound transformation. Beyond the showcase of the capital, Tashkent, historic cities like Samarkand and Bukhara, as well as industrial and rural regions, are also reshaping their urban landscapes.
To understand current trends, it is necessary to examine the economy, demographics, public policies, and household behavior simultaneously. The resulting market is growing, still young, sometimes volatile, but offers opportunities for those willing to analyze its nuances.
An expanding market, but in a normalization phase
Residential real estate in Uzbekistan has experienced sustained growth for several years. After a phase of explosive activity between 2019 and 2021, with more than 10% annual growth in the number of transactions, the market entered a phase of relative stabilization in 2022.
In 2024, the number of residential purchase-sale contracts fell by 5.8% compared to 2023, reaching 256,600 transactions. This decline, however, is by no means a crash: it is more a consolidation after several years of euphoria. In fact, the trend reversed again in 2025.
Housing sales in the first half of 2025 reached 136,500 units, up 10.6% compared to the same period in 2024.
These figures confirm that the 2024 slowdown represents more of a plateau than a lasting reversal. Demand is supported by strong economic growth (over 7% in the first half of 2025), rising real incomes, urbanization, and a structural housing deficit.
Contrasting regional dynamics
Behind the national averages lies a market geography with sharp contrasts. Some regions show spectacular growth, while others are slowing down, or even temporarily declining.
The Jizzakh region recorded the strongest sales growth since the beginning of the year, with a 42% increase.
The table below illustrates the extent of these disparities in momentum.
| Indicator (housing sales) | Approximate annual variation |
|---|---|
| Uzbekistan, 1st half 2025 | +10.6% |
| Jizzakh (sales, 1st half 2025) | +29.9% |
| Navoi (sales, 1st half 2025) | +18.3% |
| Surkhandarya (sales, 1st half 2025) | +17.7% |
| Jizzakh (since start of year, another series) | +42% |
| Syrdarya (since start of year) | +29% |
| Tashkent city (since start of year) | +15% |
| Tashkent region (1st half 2025) | -2.6% |
Occasional corrections remain frequent. In August 2024, for example, transactions fell by 3.5% compared to July and 20.8% year-on-year, with regional declines exceeding 20% in Syrdarya, Khorezm, Tashkent region, and over 30% in Navoi, Namangan, and Tashkent city. But these episodes are part of a broadly upward underlying trend.
Housing production accelerating sharply
One of the main characteristics of Uzbekistan’s real estate market is the scale of the construction effort undertaken since the second half of the 2010s. The country is trying to make up for a housing deficit accumulated over decades, in a context of population growth and rapid urbanization.
Between 2010 and 2016, the housing stock grew by about 400,000 units. Between 2017 and 2024, an additional 1.65 million homes were added. The national stock reached about 7.6 million units in 2024. Over the last five years, housing construction has nearly doubled.
In 2024, the number of apartments delivered rose 29% year-on-year, reaching 100,300 units.
Public ambitions remain very high: the national strategy aims to build 421,000 new homes per year by 2040, so that so-called modern housing represents half of the total stock by that date. For 2025, programs foresee 120,000 new apartment buildings (135,000 apartments, or 8.1 million m²), financed by 15.5 trillion soums from the state budget and 10 trillion soums from bank loans. For 2026, the target rises to 140,000 apartments, and to 1 million units by 2030.
A stock still dominated by single-family homes
Despite the proliferation of high-rise residences, the housing stock’s character remains marked by single-family homes. The number of homes is estimated at about 5.7 million for 457.9 million m² of area. About 70% of homes are single-family houses, including in cities, and only 30% are in apartment buildings. In Tashkent, one third of the urban area is occupied by single-story houses where 45% of the inhabitants live.
The predominance of single-family homes and seismic constraints limiting the height of apartment buildings reduce urban density and increase costs. New master plans aim to reverse this trend by densifying areas slated for redevelopment and reducing the share of low-rise houses in new neighborhoods.
Tashkent, the laboratory for the new Uzbek city
The draft master plan for Tashkent for 2041 gives a good idea of the ongoing transformations. The capital’s population is projected at 3.3 million inhabitants, while its area would increase from about 33,000 to 41,500 hectares through the integration of neighboring territories. The city’s housing stock is expected to grow from 47.5 million to 71.6 million m², representing an increase in the average area per inhabitant from 19 to 21.7 m².
This vision is accompanied by massive infrastructure projects, including the extension of the metro to 157 km and 74 additional stations by 2025, and the creation of a “New Tashkent” strongly oriented towards green building standards (LEED, BREEAM, EDGE) and renewable energy.
Prices: after the boom, a soft landing
On the price side, the Uzbek real estate market is emerging from a few years of very strong growth. In 2022, the average nominal increase in housing prices in dollars reached 23.6% nationally, and the real increase (inflation-adjusted) 14.6%. In 2023, real prices climbed another 18.5%, before slowing sharply to 1% in 2024.
In 2023, new home prices jumped 39.6% and existing home prices 35.1% nationally. In 2024, the increase fell back to 11.4% for new homes and 6.3% for existing ones. This real estate disinflation trend continues in 2025, although figures remain positive.
In 2025, the Uzbek secondary real estate market saw strong appreciation. Prices rose 0.3% in June month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. Since January, the cumulative increase reached 11.4%. Acceleration was notable in the fall: +0.6% in September month-on-month and +4.6% year-on-year in dollars. The peak was observed in October with a national monthly increase of 2.3%, particularly pronounced in the Syrdarya and Kashkadarya regions (+6.5%) and in Tashkent (+4.6%).
The following table summarizes some key magnitudes of recent national trends.
| Price indicator | Approximate value |
|---|---|
| Nominal housing price increase (2022) | +23.6% |
| Real price increase (2023) | +18.5% |
| Real price increase (2024) | +1% |
| Primary market price increase 2023 | +39.6% |
| Secondary market price increase 2023 | +35.1% |
| Primary market price increase 2024 | +11.4% |
| Secondary market price increase 2024 | +6.3% |
| Year-on-year variation existing homes, June 2025 | +1.8% |
| Cumulative increase existing homes since start of 2025 | +11.4% |
Some regions overheating, others correcting
Regional disparities are significant. In June 2025, the Jizzakh region showed the highest year-on-year increase in the existing home market (+11.7%), followed by Surkhandarya (+10.9%), Karakalpakstan (+9.3%), Khorezm (+7.3%), or Namangan (+7.1%). Other territories, on the contrary, are seeing prices correct after past surges: the Syrdarya region, Bukhara, or Andijan recorded declines of around 16 to 21% year-on-year over certain periods, according to different series.
On a sectoral level, new homes continued to appreciate faster than existing ones in the first half of 2024 (+7.2% vs. +4.5% over six months). This dynamic is explained by two main factors: the persistent rise in construction costs, which had already increased by nearly 11.8% in 2021, and the upgrading of part of the new supply.
Tashkent: between surge, stabilization, and adjustment
The capital accounts for about one-third of national transactions and remains the epicenter of the most visible trends. But contrary to the image of a permanently overheating market, reality is much more nuanced, with alternating bullish and corrective phases, depending on the period and segment.
In November 2023, the average price for existing homes in Tashkent was between $1,000 and $1,200 per square meter, about 23% higher than at the start of 2023. In early 2024, existing home prices even jumped 41.2% year-on-year, from 10.98 to 15.5 million soums per square meter. At the same time, sales began to slow: the city recorded a 12% drop in transactions in early 2024 compared to the previous year, followed by a further 8% decline in the second quarter.
In June 2025, the average price per square meter for existing real estate in Tashkent was $1,075, down 4.8% year-on-year.
The table below summarizes some recent key figures for Tashkent.
| Tashkent indicator (housing) | Approximate value |
|---|---|
| Existing homes, average price Nov. 2023 | 1,000 – 1,200 USD/m² |
| Existing homes, year-on-year increase early 2024 | +41.2% |
| Existing homes, average price June 2025 | 1,075 USD/m² |
| Existing homes, year-on-year variation June 2025 | -4.8% |
| Existing homes, average price August 2024 | 1,128 USD/m² |
| Existing homes, year-on-year variation August 2024 | +4.2% |
| Price-to-rent ratio (January 2025) | 11.2 years of rent |
| Price-to-rent ratio 2022 | 7.55 years (≈ 3.65 years less) |
This recent price decline in the capital is due to several factors: a massive influx of new construction, a relative tightening of credit conditions, a rebalancing after the surge of 2022–early 2024, but also a shift in demand, which is turning more towards rental.
Analysis of sub-local trends in the existing and new home market between June 2024 and October 2025.
The districts of Mirzo-Ulugbek (-7.6%), Yashnabad (-7.3%), and Chilanzar (-6.9%) recorded the sharpest corrections between June 2024 and June 2025.
Over the same period, the sharpest declines in new homes were in the districts of Uchtepa (-9.7%), Yunusabad (-8.8%), and Shaykhantakhur (-7.7%).
In October 2025, strong increases were observed in existing homes in Yashnabad, Yunusabad, and Shaikhantakhur, in a context of a general city-wide rebound of +4.6%.
A growing shift in favor of renting
One indicator illustrates the changing balance between buying and renting well: as of January 1, 2025, the price of an average apartment in Tashkent represented 11.2 years of rent, or 3.65 years more than in 2022. In other words, sale prices have increased much faster than rents, making renting relatively more attractive for many households.
Price-to-rent ratios vary greatly by region. In 2024, the period needed to “buy” a home with rent payments ranged from 7.3 to 8.4 years in regions like Karakalpakstan, Sirdarya, or Kashkadarya, compared to 14.9 years in Tashkent, 13.9 years in Samarkand, and 11.3 in Navoi. This heterogeneity creates very different opportunities depending on whether one positions themselves as a rental investor or a first-time homebuyer.
A rental market undergoing rapid change
Residential renting was historically marginal in Uzbekistan, in a country where more than 95% of households own their homes following the major privatization waves of the 1990s. But this situation is clearly evolving.
On one hand, household preferences, particularly urban ones, are changing: the flexibility of renting, the desire to remain mobile, high acquisition costs in big cities, and the lack of maintenance concerns are all pushing a growing share of the population towards renter status. On the other hand, the rapid increase in housing supply and rising prices have opened up a profitable space for rental investment, especially in the capital and tourist cities.
Between January and May 2025, the volume of rental services nationally reached 5.1 trillion soums, up 25.6% compared to the same period in 2024. The increase was particularly strong in Surkhandarya (+32.4%), Syrdarya (+28.7%), and Tashkent city (+29%). Since the beginning of autumn 2025, market players have noted a strong rebound in rental demand.
Tashkent: rents broadly stable, but highly segmented
In Tashkent, the rental market has been highly volatile in recent years. After a surge in 2022 (+25% for the year, linked partly to the massive arrival of Russian nationals), rents began to level off from 2023 onward. Over the entire 2022–2024 period, the average increase is only 1.2%, proof that the very strong 2022 rise was followed by a marked adjustment.
The average rent in Paris at the end of 2024, in dollars per square meter, marking an 11.5% decline compared to 2023.
In 2025, data shows a largely stabilized market. In June 2025, the average rent was $8.1 per m², down 2.6% year-on-year. In September 2025, it rose slightly to $8.5 per m², or +1.4% compared to September 2024. In November 2025, the average rent reached $8.7 per m², up 5% year-on-year, with peaks of $11 in central neighborhoods.
Rents in central Tashkent neighborhoods reach up to $10.3 per m², compared to about $6 in the periphery.
A detailed dataset gives a concrete idea of rental levels by housing type in a few districts.
| District (Tashkent) | 1 room (USD/month) | 2 rooms | 3 rooms | 4 rooms | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergeli | 297 | 355 | 415 | 419 | Among the cheapest |
| Almazor | 293 | 352 | 419 | 493 | Affordable periphery |
| Mirabad | 344 | 512 | 643 | 705 | Center, very expensive |
| Yakkasaray | 383 | 487 | 677 | 722 | Center, very expensive |
In terms of rental yield, figures remain attractive for investors. In Tashkent, the average gross rental yield in dollars was around 9% at the end of 2024, with a price-to-rent ratio of 11.4 years. In the center, the yield is around 8.26%, and in the close periphery around 9.64%, according to some sources. These levels are significantly above the average yield on foreign currency deposits (about 5.8%), but remain lower than the interest paid on soum deposits converted to dollars (over 17%), which explains why real estate is perceived both as a yield investment and a hedge against inflation, without being the most lucrative short-term investment.
The short-term rental boom
Beyond classic renting, the short-term rental market (Airbnb-type) is experiencing impressive growth, driven by strong tourism growth. With several million foreign tourists per year, and official targets of 10 million visitors by the middle of the decade, cities like Tashkent, Samarkand, and Bukhara are becoming prime markets for “hospitality”-oriented investors.
In Tashkent, about 600 to 630 homes are active in short-term rentals.
The composition of this market is heavily skewed towards entire apartments (over 90% of listings), with a predominance of one or two-bedroom homes suitable for stays of 2 to 4 people. A significant share of the supply offers stays of one month or more, which increases its appeal for digital nomads and temporary expatriates.
Yield rates appear particularly interesting in tourist cities like Samarkand or Bukhara, where purchase prices are lower than in Tashkent and nightly rates are well supported by international demand.
Mortgage financing booming, but costly
The rise of mortgage lending constitutes another pillar of the transformation of Uzbekistan’s real estate market. Long marginal, mortgages are taking an increasing share in housing finance, even though the bulk of investment is still covered by households’ private funds.
Between 2017 and 2024, commercial banks granted over 84 trillion soums in mortgage loans to about 478,200 citizens. At the same time, 19 trillion soums in loans were disbursed to developers for the construction of 5,700 apartment buildings (266,000 apartments). In 2022, banks granted 8.2 trillion soums in loans to 37,600 families, double the volume of 2021. In 2024, the flow of new mortgage loans reached 17.1 trillion soums, up slightly by 1.5% year-on-year, and 61% of these loans financed the purchase of new homes.
The total outstanding mortgage loan balance in trillions of soums as of January 1, 2025, up 16% year-on-year.
Mortgage financing relies on a mix of resources: about 56% from centralized state funds, 35% from banks’ own resources, and 9% via the mortgage refinancing company UzMRC in 2024. For 2025, the state plans to mobilize 20.9 trillion soums for mortgage programs.
Very high rates for households
While credit supply is expanding, its cost remains very high for households. The central bank’s key rate is at 14%, but the rates charged by banks on commercial mortgage loans are around 23 to 26% per year. In 2024, average rates were between 17 and 20% over 15 years, but new offers often show higher rates, around 24.8% for loans funded from banks’ own resources and up to 25.3% on average for commercial loans in early 2025.
The following overview summarizes some typical conditions observed in the mortgage market.
| Mortgage loan parameter | Approximate typical value |
|---|---|
| Average loan amount (2024) | 350 million soums |
| Maximum amount (some products) | 800 M UZS (Tashkent), 500 M UZS regions |
| Current term | 15 years (max. up to 20 years) |
| Average commercial rate (2024–2025) | 21–26% per year |
| State program rate (11 banks) | 16–18% over 20 years |
| Fixed-rate mortgage 20 years (indicative example) | ≈21.6% |
| Standard minimum down payment | 25% of property price |
| Down payment for unofficial incomes | 30% and more |
| Average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio early 2025 | 63% |
Affordability is all the more an issue as only the top 30% of households are currently able to bear such levels of rates and down payments. Synthetic indices confirm this pressure: the Loan Affordability Index stands at 0.35, while the price-to-income ratio in Tashkent is estimated around 12.9, and the weight of a loan installment relative to income can exceed 280% according to some benchmark scenarios.
Total amount in billions of soums of subsidies granted in 2022 to more than 16,700 low-income families to facilitate access to real estate credit.
Since May 2024, however, these aids are only granted to households that have never received mortgage support before, a sign of a gradual rationalization of the system.
Demand driven by demographics and income
One of the structural strengths of Uzbekistan’s real estate market lies in its demographics. The population has grown continuously over the last 60 years and is expected to increase by another 6 million inhabitants by 2030. The country has about 36 million people in 2024, with a significant share of young households of home-forming age.
Urbanization is another determining factor. Since 2009, the urban population has exceeded the rural population, and large cities – Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara, but also regional capitals – are attracting a growing share of population flows, sometimes via administrative reclassification of former rural towns into urban areas.
There are only about 189 homes per 1,000 inhabitants, a ratio lower than that of many countries in the region.
Estimates by the Asian Development Bank converge on a need for about 145,000 new homes per year until 2040, given population growth and the declining average household size. However, over the past decade, average annual production has not exceeded 90,000 units, fueling a structural deficit.
The housing deficit is marked by a ratio of only 0.76 homes per family in early 2024, leaving about 24% of families without an independent home. Although the homes-to-households ratio increased from 0.96 in 2020 to 1.01 in 2024, overcrowding indicators remain high.
At the same time, purchasing power is increasing. In 2024, average wages rose by 18% and per capita income by 20.4%. The first nine months of 2025 show an 8.4% increase in households’ real income. These trends support demand solvency, even though the previous rise in real estate prices temporarily eroded gains in affordability.
Transparency, digitalization, and securing transactions
Another major undertaking concerns the modernization of the institutional framework and the digitalization of the market. Long characterized by opacity, informal arrangements, and cash payments, the sector is gradually moving towards a logic of transparency and formalization.
Authorities have adopted a broad “Digital Uzbekistan – 2030” program which includes the creation of a unified information system akin to a Multi Listing Service (MLS) for real estate. A draft new law on real estate activity provides for the legalization of informal brokers (reclassified as “real estate agents”), the establishment of a public register of professionals, the implementation of an electronic transaction platform, and the reduction of cash use.
Only 18% of leases were registered via digital systems in 2023.
Authorities have set an ambitious goal, however: to raise the share of electronically managed rentals to 40–50% by the middle of the decade, through incentives, improved digital infrastructure, and awareness campaigns.
The introduction of escrow accounts
Securing off-plan purchases is another structuring axis. Starting July 1, 2025, a new escrow system is to be implemented for real estate transactions. Henceforth, contracts can only be signed for officially registered construction projects, and buyers’ funds must be deposited in bank escrow accounts. Banks will only release the funds – or the loans – once at least 30% of construction progress is achieved.
A transition period is planned until December 31, 2025, during which the old and new systems will coexist. Starting January 1, 2026, all transactions must mandatorily go through escrow accounts. This mechanism, inspired by more mature markets, aims to reduce the risks of unfinished projects and rebalance the relationship between developers and buyers. It will be complemented by the “Transparent Construction” digital platform, which will make information on projects, co-ownership agreements, and developers’ commitments public.
Towards an upgrade and greening of the housing stock
Alongside quantitative issues, the quality of real estate supply is at the heart of public policies. Issues of comfort, energy efficiency, and environment are gradually becoming structuring.
Residential and commercial buildings account for nearly half of the country’s final energy consumption, with a large share for heating. The government has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions per GDP unit by 35% by 2030 compared to 2010, under the Paris Agreement, and has adopted a “green development” strategy.
Since 2020, presidential decrees have mandated the use of energy-efficient technologies in new construction. Projects supported by institutions like UNDP, the World Bank, IFC, and EBRD promote the construction of high-performance rural housing, the renovation of public buildings, and the adoption of international certification standards.
Tashkent thus hosts the first residential complexes and business centers certified LEED, BREEAM, or EDGE, such as the Parkent Plaza complex, the Trilliant center, or the NUR residence. The “New Tashkent” project emphasizes neighborhoods intersected by canals, vast green spaces (over 30% of the area), centralized heating and cooling networks, and broad integration of solar energy and energy recovery.
For developers, these changes imply initial additional costs, but also an upgrade that can translate into higher selling prices and greater appeal to international investors, who are increasingly sensitive to ESG criteria.
An investment environment still young, but increasingly codified
On the macroeconomic and institutional front, Uzbekistan displays a combination of assets and risks that are reflected in its real estate market. The economy is growing at a steady pace (between 5.5% and 7.2% annual growth recently), inflation shows signs of stabilization, and the structural reforms initiated since 2016 are gradually improving the business climate.
Major rating agencies classify the country in the speculative category but with a stable outlook. At the same time, foreign direct investment exceeded $7 billion in 2023, marking strong growth. A growing share of these flows is attracted to the real estate sector, notably via major urban projects like the “Tashkent City International Business Centre”, the “Samarkand Silk Road” complex, or “Bukhara City”, as well as numerous residential and commercial programs.
The legal framework, of the civil law type, has been strengthened to secure property, regulate investments, and guarantee the free repatriation of profits. Foreign investors can own residential and commercial buildings, even though they cannot own land, which remains state property and can only be leased long-term (up to 49 years).
A program in effect since 2025 allows obtaining residence permits through investment. Access depends on minimum financial thresholds, which vary by region. Options include donations, investments in businesses, or real estate purchases. These investments can lead to the granting of temporary, long-term, or even unlimited residence permits for the applicant and their family.
In this landscape, foreign investors – whether from the Gulf, Turkey, Russia, Korea, Europe, or North America – find a market in the process of structuring, with high yields but non-negligible risks: currency volatility, administrative complexity, a rapidly evolving regulatory framework, variable construction quality, sometimes insufficient infrastructure, especially outside major cities.
Conclusion: a market with strong potential, but requiring detailed analysis
The current trends in Uzbekistan’s real estate market paint a paradoxical picture. On one hand, a structural housing deficit, dynamic demographics, growing urbanization, an expanding economy, and high rental yields create a powerful growth engine. On the other, the past price surge, the high cost of credit, regional inequalities, affordability pressures, and the slow pace of formalization call for caution.
The country is in transition from a model of near-universal ownership towards a system where mortgages, renting, rental investment, and state intervention are gaining importance. Major metropolises like Tashkent are adopting advanced tools for urban planning, greening, and transaction security. Historic cities such as Samarkand and Bukhara seek to balance tourist development, heritage preservation, and modernization of the housing stock.
For investors, this reality requires looking beyond national averages. The gaps between neighborhoods in the same city, between dynamic regions and those in correction, between well-designed new builds and lower-quality construction are considerable. The quality of location, the legal solidity of projects, a fine understanding of taxation and public programs, and the ability to anticipate regulatory changes (escrow, digitalization, green standards) will be decisive factors.
The real estate market in Uzbekistan is neither a bubble to flee, nor a guaranteed El Dorado. It is a market under construction, both literally and figuratively, where the risks of a young market coexist with rare opportunities to be part of the trajectory of a country that, within a generation, is profoundly changing its urban face.
Analysis of the Uzbek real estate market
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. We encourage you to consult qualified experts before making any investment, real estate, or expatriation decisions. Although we strive to maintain up-to-date and accurate information, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the proposed content. As investment and expatriation involve risks, we disclaim any liability for potential losses or damages arising from the use of this site. Your use of this site confirms your acceptance of these terms and your understanding of the associated risks.
Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
