Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
Long relegated to the margins of major European real estate markets, Serbia is now establishing itself as one of the most dynamic markets in Southeast Europe, with the high-end segment acting as its driving force. Between the spectacular transformation of Belgrade, massive investments in mountain resorts like Kopaonik or Zlatibor, and the arrival of global hotel brands, the country is carving out a unique place on the luxury map.
The market is undergoing a major transformation, fueled by economic growth, foreign investment, rapid urbanization, and the anticipated impact of EXPO 2027 in Belgrade. Local demand also remains very strong, with real estate seen as a safe-haven asset and a symbol of success.
A Real Estate Market in a State of Managed Overheating
Nationally, Serbia is emerging from a cycle of spectacular price increases. Between 2019 and the end of 2023, apartment prices jumped by over 60%, with peaks of 20–30% per year in 2021–2022. According to data from the cadastre (RGA) and international analyses, prices then slowed but never declined: in 2024, the average increase for apartments still hovers around 5%.
In value terms, the market has now reached levels that place it at the top of the region. In 2024, the total volume of real estate transactions in Serbia amounted to €7.4 billion, up 15% year-on-year. More than half of this value – 55.6%, or €4.1 billion – comes from the residential sector, the clearly dominant segment. The rest is divided between houses, building plots, commercial properties, and agricultural land.
The transaction amount for the second quarter of 2025, showing annual growth of nearly 14%.
Belgrade, the Epicenter of Value
The Serbian market is deeply asymmetric: Belgrade concentrates solvent demand, the most ambitious projects, and the highest price levels. For apartments, the capital accounts for about 54 to 55% of the national transaction value, and nearly 37% of units sold in the first nine months of 2024.
In 2024, Belgrade alone captured €3.53 billion in real estate investment, far ahead of other regions. Figures for 2025 confirm this dominance: in the second quarter, the city totaled €659.7 million in apartment sales.
By mid-2025, the average housing price in Belgrade reached €2,990/m², up 9.4% year-on-year. Although lower than in Western European capitals, this level and the high pressure on the premium segment now make it an expensive market in the Balkan context.
Growth Still Strong, but More Sustainable
One of the key questions regarding Serbia’s Luxury Property Market is the sustainability of this increase. After the surge of 2021–2022, major consulting firms like CBS International or Cushman & Wakefield now anticipate a period of moderate growth, on the order of 3 to 7% per year until 2030 depending on the scenario.
Projections for the coming years are structured around several scenarios:
| Belgrade / Serbia Growth Scenario | 2025 (forecast) | 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | +3 to +4% | +2 to +3% |
| Moderate | +5 to +6% | +4 to +5% |
| Optimistic | +7 to +8% | +6 to +7% |
In reality, the most recent data shows an increase of around 4–6% per year nationally, slightly stronger in major cities playing catch-up (Niš, Kragujevac) and in certain Belgrade municipalities undergoing revaluation like Palilula, where prices jumped nearly 33% in one year, rising from about €1,960 to €2,600/m².
Belgrade, a Showcase of Luxury: From Historic Districts to Mega-Projects
If one had to summarize Serbia’s Luxury Property Market in a single territory, it would be Belgrade. The capital combines historic bourgeois neighborhoods, new riverside towers, gated residential complexes, and diplomatic villas. Three areas stand out clearly: the Stari Grad – Vračar – Savski Venac triangle, the waterfront of Belgrade Waterfront, and the residential hills of Dedinje, Senjak, and their surroundings.
Premium Districts: Stari Grad, Savski Venac, Vračar
Stari Grad, Savski Venac, and Vračar constitute the heart of the high-end market within the city. Figures for the second quarter of 2025 detail a highly segmented landscape between old and new, but generally at levels well above the city average.
| Central Municipality (Belgrade) | Resale €/m² (Q2 2025) | New €/m² (Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Stari Grad | 3,629 | 3,985 |
| Savski Venac | 3,268 | 4,610* |
| Vračar | 3,493 | 3,335 |
| Novi Beograd | 2,970 | 3,200 |
Savski Venac includes the high prices of Belgrade Waterfront, which strongly pull the average for new builds upward.
Looking only at the first quarter of 2025, average prices in these premium districts exceed €4,000/m² for all residential properties: approximately €4,260/m² in Stari Grad, €4,369/m² in Savski Venac, and €4,103/m² in Vračar. These are averages, and the most sought-after properties, particularly large prestigious apartments, sell for significantly more.
In Belgrade’s Vračar neighborhood, the high-end real estate market shows significant price disparities. For instance, a 74 m² two-bedroom apartment can be listed at around €213,000, while a spacious 283 m² apartment can reach €1.85 million. This valuation is explained in part by strong demand for pre-war buildings and listed historic properties, prized for their prestigious features: high ceilings, original parquet floors, Art Nouveau façades, and prime locations.
Record sales confirm this move upmarket: a garage in Vračar reached €73,000, and in the historic center, an older apartment on Obilićev venac sold for over €6,000/m², outside of new developments.
Dedinje, Senjak, Embassy Hill and Diplomatic Villas
To the southwest of the center, the hills of Dedinje, Senjak, and the residential areas of Savski Venac form the capital’s “diplomatic belt.” Dedinje features oversized villas, embassy residences, and historic properties. Uzicka ulica, an iconic street in Dedinje, remains a symbol of power and wealth: a house there sold for €4.4 million, one of the country’s most expensive residential transactions.
More recently, another record of €4 million was reached for a house in Savski Venac. Current listings show villas of 600 to over 1,000 m² with pools, gardens spanning several ares (hundreds of square meters), and multiple garages, priced between €2.5 and nearly €10 million depending on condition and exact location.
The Senjak neighborhood combines bourgeois elegance and tranquility, with a strong diplomatic presence. Its villas, often situated on large plots, represent one of the most liquid segments of the ultra-high-end real estate market. This area is particularly favored by wealthy expatriates, corporate executives, and the diaspora.
Belgrade Waterfront: The Controversial Icon of New Luxury
It is impossible to analyze Serbia’s Luxury Property Market without mentioning Belgrade Waterfront. This monumental project on the banks of the Sava River in Savski Venac is presented as “the most ambitious urban regeneration project in the country’s modern history,” and one of the largest construction sites in Europe.
The result of a public-private partnership between the Serbian state and the Emirati developer Eagle Hills (which holds a 68% stake in the project), Belgrade Waterfront represents an estimated total investment of between €2.5 and €3.5 billion. Spanning approximately 90 hectares, the plan includes 1.85 million m² of built-up area, encompassing:
– luxury residential towers and branded residences (The Residences at The St. Regis Belgrade, W Residences Belgrade, etc.)
– a giant shopping mall, Galerija Belgrade, 300,000 m², with over 500 stores and 3,600 parking spaces
– five-star hotels (St. Regis, future W Hotel) and, eventually, eight hotels offering 2,200 rooms
– offices, cultural facilities, and a completely redesigned riverfront
Exceptional apartments in the Kula Belgrade project can reach selling prices exceeding €11,000/m².
Official statistics confirm this positioning: in the third quarter of 2023, 182 apartments were sold there at an average price of approximately €4,390/m², with a range between €3,433 and €9,475/m². Over the longer term, analysts estimate value growth of up to 5% per year within the complex.
Indicative price table for major luxury projects in Belgrade:
| Segment / Project | Indicative Price Range €/m² |
|---|---|
| Central Belgrade (average 2024) | ~3,500 |
| Luxury projects (Belgrade Waterfront type) | 5,000 – 6,000 |
| Kula Belgrade (some units) | > 6,000, up to ~11,000 |
| High-end complexes outside BW (West 65, St. Regis, etc.) | 4,000 – 8,000 per unit |
Beyond the numbers, Belgrade Waterfront has a massive economic impact: residential sales have already generated over one billion euros in revenue, the annual induced value at maturity will be counted in hundreds of millions, and the project has repositioned Savski Venac among the most expensive addresses in the country.
The construction site, however, is not without controversy: working conditions, worker fatalities, nighttime demolition of old facilities, and displacement of vulnerable populations have sparked significant debate. But from a strictly real estate perspective, the complex has established itself as the benchmark for new luxury in Belgrade, to the point that “Belgrade Waterfront” has become synonymous with ultra-high-end for many foreign buyers.
Beyond Belgrade: Novi Sad, Niš, Kragujevac, and the Mountains of Kopaonik and Zlatibor
Serbia’s luxury market is not limited to the capital. Several hubs are gaining momentum thanks to the combination of university centers, tech clusters, high-end tourism, and massive public investment.
Novi Sad, the Second High-End Hub
Novi Sad, the capital of the Vojvodina province, is the second most dynamic city. Driven by a booming tech sector, a significant student population, and fast rail links with Belgrade, the city is attracting a growing number of investors.
By mid-2025, the average price per square meter there reached approximately €2,483/m², up 4.7% year-on-year. In 2024, apartment sales increased by 30%, while the transaction value jumped by 53%. Neighborhoods like Liman or Grbavica are positioning themselves as mini local “Vračars,” with prices approaching or exceeding €2,000/m² in the most sought-after areas.
Upmarket residential developments, often linked to the tech scene and returning diaspora, focus on modern comfort: underground parking, small wellness facilities, security, quality materials. While below Belgrade’s levels, Novi Sad clearly stands as the second reference market for high-end properties.
Niš and Kragujevac: Industrial and Urban Upscaling
Niš is transforming into a technological and industrial hub in southern Serbia. Prices there remain significantly lower (approximately €1,661/m² on average in mid‑2025), but growth is very rapid: +6.73% year-on-year regionally in 2024, with apartment sales up 48% and transaction value nearly doubling (+97%).
Housing sales surged 40% in Kragujevac in 2024, boosted by the automotive industry.
Kopaonik and Zlatibor, the Golden Triangle of Mountain Tourism
Another key component of Serbia’s luxury market is at altitude. The Kopaonik – Zlatibor – Stara Planina triangle concentrates a growing share of high-end investment, in the form of five-star hotels, leisure residences, and prestige chalets.
Serbia’s main ski resort, Kopaonik has become the most sophisticated mountain destination in the region, with a high-value tourism ecosystem.
The cumulative value of the Kopaonik system (hotels, residences, restaurants, leisure) is estimated between €1 and €1.5 billion.
Each major hotel project involves an investment of €50 to €150 million.
The local economy generates between €150 and €250 million per year in tourist and hotel spending.
On the real estate side, prices for mountain apartments in Kopaonik generally range between €2,500 and €3,000/m², with strong seasonality for short-term rentals. During the peak ski season, a well-located apartment can rent for up to €200 per night, offering high gross yields provided occupancy is well managed.
Zlatibor, another iconic resort, has transformed into a veritable mountain town. Prices per square meter there generally oscillate between €1,800 and €2,500/m², and annual tourist revenue also amounts to hundreds of millions of euros. Investors are flocking to hotel residences and apartments intended for short-term rentals, with rates ranging from €80 to €150 per night depending on the season.
Stara Planina, finally, is considered a “strategic reserve” for future, more sustainable high-end development focused on nature and ecology. For now, the supply there is more limited, but the strategies envisioned aim for a premium mountain positioning, aligned with European environmental standards.
Who Buys Luxury in Serbia? A Portrait of Buyers and New Clientele
The buyer profile is one of the most distinctive aspects of the Serbian market. While in Western Europe, credit dominates, Serbia remains a country of cash buyers. Up to 70–85% of acquisitions are made in cash depending on the period, and even though the share of purchases financed by loans is rising again, it remains modest.
A Majority of Local Buyers… but Highly Polarized
Over 90% of national transactions involve Serbian residents, most often for personal use. The culture of property ownership is extremely strong: the homeownership rate exceeds 90% of the population, one of the highest in Europe. Real estate is seen as a guarantee of stability, social status, and a hedge against inflation.
On the luxury segment, however, profiles are diversifying. In central Belgrade neighborhoods like Vračar, Dorćol, or Savski Venac, the main high-end buyers are:
– members of the Serbian diaspora, having partially or fully returned to the country, often with income denominated in euros, dollars, or Swiss francs
– tech and services executives, paid at European levels but with a cost of living still lower than in Western capitals
– a segment of local economic elites, sometimes from opaque sectors, seeking tangible and prestigious assets
The profile of first-time buyers is trending younger: the average age for purchasing a first apartment in Belgrade is now said to be around 25–27 years old, compared to 35–40 previously. This shift is partly due to public assistance, such as interest rate subsidies and reduced down payments to 3% announced by President Vučić for certain young households.
Belgrade Real Estate Market Observer
The Role of Foreigners: Minority in Volume, Key in the Luxury Segment
By transaction volume, foreigners remain a minority (approximately 5% market share, with 4.81% foreign buyers in 2023), but they are overrepresented in the ultra-high-end segment, especially in Belgrade Waterfront, Dedinje, Senjak, Vračar, and mountain resorts.
The dominant nationalities include:
– Russians, who arrived en masse following the start of the war in Ukraine (approximately 200,000 people are estimated to have migrated to Serbia, the majority to Belgrade). They first drove up the rental market before turning to purchases, including via locally created companies;
– members of the Serbian diaspora based in the United States, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, willing to pay a premium for construction quality and location;
– buyers from Turkey, China, and to a lesser extent, Israel and Western Europe (France, Germany), interested in the catch-up market status, the absence of inheritance tax for direct descendants, and a relatively advantageous tax system.
The threshold from which Russian and Ukrainian investors often purchase real estate in Serbia in cash, directly influencing prices.
Certain nationalities, such as Hungarians, are turning more towards building plots, taking advantage of proximity to the border and regional trade agreements.
Internal Migration and EXPO 2027: Underestimated Drivers
Belgrade’s appeal does not only come from abroad. Each year, between 13,500 and 15,000 people (according to official figures) move there from other regions of the country; unofficial estimates suggest rather 25,000 to 30,000 people. This internal migration flow fuels demand, particularly for medium-sized housing (1 to 3 rooms, between 30 and 70 m²), which are very liquid and sought after for both purchase and rent.
Simultaneously, the preparation for EXPO 2027 – an investment plan dubbed “Leap into the Future” with a budget of €17.8 billion – acts as a gigantic urban catalyst. The project includes the construction of an exhibition park, strengthening of transport infrastructure (roads, rail, expansion of Belgrade airport), and numerous public facilities. The impact on property values, particularly around major transport axes and future EXPO sites, is already visible.
The Leverage Effect of the Serbian Economy and Public Policies
The boom in Serbia’s luxury market does not exist in a vacuum: it rests on a solidly growing economy, a stabilized macroeconomic environment, and a deliberate strategy to attract foreign capital.
Growth, Employment, Inflation: A Rather Favorable Context
Between 2020 and 2023, Serbia’s real GDP grew by approximately 12%. In 2024, growth is estimated around 3.8–4%, with forecasts for 2025–2026 generally between 3.5 and 5% according to institutions (Central Bank, IMF, EBRD). The labor market is also improving: in the third quarter of 2024, the employment rate reached a record 51.9%, while unemployment fell to 8.1%, near its historical lows.
Regarding inflation, after a peak of 12.4% in 2023, the consumer price index fell back towards 4.5% in 2024 and should continue its decline to 3.6% in 2025 and then 3.1% in 2026 according to the IMF. This normalization of prices, combined with rising real wages (approximately +9.3% in the first nine months of 2024), strengthens household purchasing power, at least in major cities.
Mortgage Credit: Still Limited Use, but Recovering
Historically, Serbia is a cash market. Yet, the use of mortgage credit is picking up again. The monetary environment contributes to this shift: the National Bank of Serbia lowered its key rate to 5.75% at the end of 2024, after raising it to combat inflation, while the European Central Bank began cutting its rates (3.0–3.4% depending on the facility).
In November 2024, the average interest rate on new mortgages in France was around 5.05%.
Even though these conditions remain more expensive than in pre‑2022 Western Europe, they mark an improvement compared to the peak reached in 2023, when some borrowing rates were nearing or exceeding 6.4%. As a result: in 2024, the share of purchases financed by credit rose to 10% across the entire market, and to 22% for apartments (compared to 7% and 17% in 2023). In the third quarter of 2024, approximately 25% of apartments were purchased with a loan – still far from the 30% of the 2019–2021 period, but in clear recovery.
An Attractive Fiscal and Regulatory Framework for Investment
In Serbia’s Luxury Property Market, taxation plays a non-negligible role. Acquisition costs remain moderate compared to other European countries: for a resale, the buyer pays a 2.5% transfer tax, to which notary fees (0.1–0.5%), lawyer fees (1–3%), and agency commission (around 2%, frequently shared between seller and buyer) are added. For a new property purchased from a developer, this 2.5% is replaced by VAT (10% for residential, 20% for commercial), which some investors can partially recover if renting through a Serbian company.
The annual property tax is low (up to 0.4% of the cadastral value for residential, 0.8% for commercial). Rental income is taxed at an effective rate of about 15% after a standard deduction. A capital gains tax of 15% applies upon resale, but it is exempt after ten years of ownership.
Add a factor often decisive for wealth management clients: Serbia does not levy inheritance tax for direct descendants. Combined with the possibility for eligible foreigners to obtain a temporary – renewable – residence permit based on property ownership, the country gains attractiveness for families looking to structure their assets over one generation or more.
Rental Yields, Tourism, and the High-End Rental Market
Parallel to sales, the rental dimension is central to investment in Serbia’s luxury property market. In this area, Belgrade and major university cities, as well as mountain tourist resorts, stand out.
Solid Yields Despite Rising Prices
Yield studies show gross levels generally between 4 and 6% for properties located in central Belgrade, depending on the quality of the property and the rental mode (long-term, short-term, corporate rental). Some sources mention even higher yields, beyond 7%, in less premium locations with strong rental demand, or for products optimized for short-term stays.
Average rents illustrate the gap between the center and the periphery:
– approximately €500 for a studio in Belgrade at the end of 2024
– around €800 for a T2 (one bedroom)
– nearly €1,000 for a T3
– approximately €1,500 for a large T4
Annual rent increase in Belgrade and Novi Sad at the end of 2024, after explosive growth in previous years.
Prestige Rentals and the “Bleisure” Segment
The country’s tourism upscaling multiplies opportunities. Belgrade is positioning itself as a destination combining business and leisure (“bleisure”), with a growing offer of five-star hotels (St. Regis, future Ritz‑Carlton, upcoming W Hotel) and luxury residences for short or medium-term stays. Two restaurants in the capital (Langouste, Fleur de Sel) have been distinguished by the Michelin Guide, strengthening its gastronomic image.
This is the gross annual yield, in percentage, that some Belgrade Waterfront apartments can generate due to strong rental demand.
In the mountains, Kopaonik and Zlatibor offer a different profile: more seasonal, but potentially more profitable. In Kopaonik, for example, a well-located 45–50 m² apartment purchased for around €2,700/m² can generate significant income if its occupancy rate is high in winter and acceptable the rest of the year. Serbia’s tourist visitor numbers – over 3.8 million tourists in 2024, up 15% – suggest this demand will continue to grow, especially with EXPO 2027 and the country’s repositioning as an “affordable luxury” destination in the Balkans.
Belgrade Tomorrow: Metro, Premium Offices, and Investment Corridors
Looking towards the 2030–2035 horizon, Serbia’s luxury property market – and particularly Belgrade’s – will be profoundly reshaped by major infrastructure projects.
The construction of two new metro lines in Belgrade, costing approximately €9 billion, is expected to significantly increase real estate values. International experience indicates price increases of 10 to 20% in the medium term along serviced routes. In Belgrade, the announcement of the routes has already caused immediate increases, such as in Mirijevo where values rose by 10 to 15%.
Highway and railway corridors – the high-speed Belgrade–Novi Sad line, modernization of Belgrade–Niš, Corridor XI towards Čačak and Požega – are also transforming the investment geography, creating “development axes” where new residential zones, logistics parks, and industrial parks combine. The industrial and logistics sector is thus considered the fastest-growing real estate segment in Serbia, with over 6 million m² of modern logistics space and projects totaling several hundred thousand additional square meters.
In this context, Belgrade’s function is evolving: the capital remains the heart of residential luxury, but it is also becoming the hub of a network of booming cities (Novi Sad, Niš, Kragujevac, Čačak, Subotica), where values rise as transport links strengthen.
A Luxury Market Still “Affordable” on a European Scale?
Put in perspective with major global luxury markets, Serbia’s luxury property market remains, paradoxically, relatively affordable. A cited study reminds us that in 2021, one million dollars could buy approximately 456 m² of housing in Belgrade at an average price of €2,000/m², compared to 15 m² in Monaco, 21 m² in Hong Kong, 31 m² in London, or 33 m² in New York.
Despite price increases, particularly in the premium segment, the cost per square meter in Belgrade (between €4,000 and €6,000 in the best neighborhoods) remains lower than in Western European capitals or renowned Alpine resorts. The country, whose infrastructure is improving rapidly, presents a growing, catch-up market, offering an increasingly rare value-for-price proposition for international investors.
The recent acquisition of an investment grade rating (BBB‑) from S&P Global Ratings, the strategy of gradual accession to the European Union, high FDI flows (€4.5 billion in 2023, about 7% of GDP), and the EXPO 2027 plan further reinforce this appeal, sending investors a clear signal: the country no longer aims to be just a “low-cost” destination; it claims a place among the structured and regulated markets of the region.
Risks, Limitations, and Gray Areas
Like any fast-growing market, Serbia’s luxury property market also has its risks and blind spots.
The national demography, first, remains unfavorable: the country is aging (over 20% of the population is over 65), the birth rate is low, and emigration to Western Europe continues. Belgrade and a few major cities compensate through internal and international migration, but some rural areas and small towns are emptying out. In the long term, the question of domestic demand across the entire territory will arise.
The real estate legal framework, although strengthened, remains complex. Cases can be complicated by unsettled inheritances, unregulated constructions, restitution claims, or cadastral errors. Although regularization windows exist for properties built without permits, increased caution is recommended, especially for foreign buyers. Professionals unanimously emphasize the necessity of rigorous due diligence conducted by an experienced local lawyer.
Financially, the still significant share of cash purchases constitutes both a factor of stability (little systemic risk from household over-indebtedness) and a source of potential volatility: if cash investor confidence were to reverse, or if a major geopolitical shock affected the region, price adjustments could be brutal, especially in the ultra-high-end segment.
Finally, the country’s energy dependency (gas and oil imports), sensitivity to the European economic cycle, and domestic political uncertainties constitute parameters to monitor for anyone considering investing several million euros.
Conclusion: A Market Transitioning Towards High-End Maturity
Serbia’s luxury property market is entering a pivotal phase. The period of violent catch-up in the years 2020–2022 is giving way to a cycle of more moderate, yet sustained growth, driven by a more solid economic base, better financial regulation, and massive infrastructure projects that are redrawing the country’s map.
Belgrade, with its historic neighborhoods, diplomatic hills, glass towers, and reinvented waterfront, remains the showcase of this metamorphosis. Novi Sad, Niš, Kragujevac, and mountain resorts like Kopaonik and Zlatibor form, around it, an archipelago of emerging luxury hubs, each with its own logic: tech, industry, tourism, retirement, second homes.
In a European environment where many markets have reached maturity, Serbia’s Luxury Property Market still offers depth, potential growth, and a diversity of products, from the penthouse with a view of the Sava to the mountain chalet, from the diplomatic villa to the branded residence integrated into a five-star hotel.
Provided one accepts the local complexity, surrounds oneself with reliable advisors, and thinks in the medium-to-long term, it stands as one of the most interesting playing fields for savvy investors seeking new frontiers in European luxury real estate.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
