Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
Driven by a gradual economic recovery, strong demand, and structurally limited supply, Moldova’s real estate market is experiencing a paradoxical phase: prices are reaching historical records while transaction volumes are starting to decline. At the center of this complex interplay is the capital, Chișinău, which has become the true barometer of Moldovan real estate.
This article analyzes the main developments in the sector: price fluctuations, supply and demand dynamics, the growth of mortgage lending, the significant rise in rents, transformations in construction, and the impact of European integration on the country’s attractiveness.
A recovering, but controlled overheating market
After marked stagnation in 2022 and 2023, Moldova’s real estate market is experiencing a strong recovery. Data from the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) and leading real estate agencies converge: the current cycle is dominated by rapid price increases, fueled by a supply deficit and much more favorable credit conditions than a few years ago.
The real estate market experiences price cycles lasting up to 15 years.
For now, the signals do not point to a classic speculative bubble. Analyses by the German Economic Team show that rents have increased at a pace close to that of selling prices, maintaining high rental yields and suggesting that valuations remain largely supported by income.
Chișinău, epicenter of the price surge
The capital concentrates most of the country’s real estate activity, with about 70% of national transactions. It illustrates better than anything the extent of the price increase over the last decade.
A historic surge in price per square meter
Between 2015 and 2023, the average price of apartments in Chișinău increased by nearly 90%. After a long stabilization phase between 2012 and 2019 around €600–650/m², the curve abruptly turned upward from 2020.
The table below outlines the evolution of average apartment prices in Chișinău from the pre-financial crisis period to the recent records.
| Year | Average apartment price in Chișinău (€/m²) |
|---|---|
| 2007 | 850 |
| 2008 | 900 |
| 2009 | 720 |
| 2010 | 610 |
| 2011 | 525 |
| 2012 | 535 |
| 2013 | 540 |
| 2014 | 550 |
| 2015 | 565 |
| 2016 | 580 |
| 2017 | 595 |
| 2018 | 635 |
| 2019 | 650 |
| 2020 | 705 |
| 2021 | 850 |
| 2022 | 960 |
| 2023 | 1,070 |
| 2024 | 1,540 |
At the end of 2024, according to the Acces Imobil index, the average price of apartments in Chișinău reached €1,540/m², a rise of 43.9% compared to 2023. In the first part of 2025, the trend continued: the average price climbed to around €1,720/m² by the end of March, with a temporary peak around €1,906/m² on the primary market in the first quarter.
Annual increase in real estate prices in Chișinău in the third quarter of 2024 according to the BNM’s RPPI index.
New vs. old: a widening gap
The price increase does not affect all segments equally. The primary market (new housing) now shows a price level significantly higher than the secondary market (existing housing).
| Segment | Average price 2023 (€/m²) | Average price Q1 2025 (€/m²) | Approx. change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old | 880 | 1,324 | +50% |
| New | 1,295 | 1,906 | +47% |
This divergence reflects rising construction costs (estimated at around €650/m², for selling prices of €1,000 to €1,300/m² upon project completion) and the scarcity of building permits. Buyers prefer either new apartments delivered at the “white frame” stage (structure complete, finishes to be done) in modern complexes, often between €1,200 and €1,400/m², or completely renovated units above €1,500/m² in the most sought-after areas.
Demand supported by credit, migration, and the diaspora
Behind the price curve, several forces combine. Demand is not only tied to domestic population growth but also to migratory and financial phenomena that transcend the country’s borders.
The growing weight of mortgage lending
The most spectacular change concerns the mortgage market. In the space of two years, the cost of borrowing has been halved, dropping from about 14% APR in 2022–2023 to 7–8% in 2024, thanks to the drastic cut in the BNM’s key rate (from 21.5% in fall 2022 to 3.6% from May 2024).
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (Nov.) / 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNM key rate (peak) | 21.50% | – | 3.60% (stabilized) |
| Average rate new mortgage loans (MDL) | 12.89% (Nov) | 8.84% (Nov) | 6.89% (Nov 2024) |
| Share of mortgage in new loans | – | 25.6% | 36.1% (11 months) |
| Outstanding mortgage loans (MDL) | – | 14.9 Bn | 17.9 Bn (Nov 2024) |
The volume of new mortgage loans to individuals is exploding: 7.05 billion lei granted between January and November 2024, more than double the total for 2023 and 35.1% higher than the previous peak in 2021. The outstanding mortgage balance climbed from about 2.3 billion lei in 2016 to nearly 17.9 billion by the end of 2024, reaching about 4.4% of GDP.
Over 40% of apartments purchased in Chișinău in the first nine months of 2024 were bought on credit, illustrating a transformation of the real estate market.
The structuring role of the Prima Casă / Prima Casă Plus program
The introduction of the Prima Casă program in 2018 and its enhanced version Prima Casă Plus in 2024 has profoundly reshaped the market. This state mechanism, which guarantees part of the loan, has enabled over 8,000 households to access homeownership with a reduced down payment and capped rates.
The July 2024 reform further expanded access: the price ceiling for eligible housing jumped from 1 million to 2.5 million lei, the maximum loan term increased from 25 to 30 years, and the public guarantee for housing outside Chișinău was raised to up to 65–70% of the outstanding principal. Most importantly, the condition of employment within Moldovan territory was lifted, opening the program to freelancers, self-employed professionals, artists, or Moldovans working online for foreign companies.
The number of Prima Casă Plus loans increased from about 310 in Q3 2024 to over 900 in Q1 2025, representing nearly 35% of new mortgage contracts.
Diaspora, refugees, and internal migration
Demand does not only come from local households. Diaspora remittances, estimated at around $1.6 billion per year (over 20% of GDP), continue to massively support purchasing power. A significant portion of these funds is directed towards real estate, both to house relatives and to build a rental portfolio.
The influx of Ukrainian refugees from 2022, as well as the arrival of nationals from other countries in the region, increased pressure on the housing stock, particularly on the rental market. At the same time, internal movements — young professionals and students converging on Chișinău, as well as families looking for single-family homes in the suburbs — contribute to concentrating demand in and around the capital.
Statisticians observe a notable shift: whereas previously about 60% of properties for sale were located in Chișinău and 40% in the regions, nearly 80% of the supply for sale is now located in the capital, reflecting accelerated demographic and economic centralization.
A dwindling supply: permits down, construction delayed
The surge in prices largely stems from a supply deficit that has been widening for several years. In a market where demand is stoked by cheap credit and external financial flows, the scarcity of new housing acts as a real spark on prices.
Plunge in construction starts and completions
The figures are telling. In the first nine months of 2024, the number of new housing units completed in Moldova fell by 67% compared to the previous year. The Chișinău region is the hardest hit, with a 74% drop in completions, followed by the North (-64%) and the Center (-33%). Only the South of the country and the ATU Gagauzia still show positive momentum.
| Indicator | Jan–Sept 2023 | Jan–Sept 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing completions (Moldova) | ~6,400* | 2,121 | -67% |
| Chișinău region share (completions) | – | sharply down | -74% |
Estimate based on the 67% decline.
The flow of new residential building permits continues to contract, with 1,641 permits issued in the first nine months of 2024, a decline of 3.2% year-on-year. This trend is part of a marked decline, following drops of 15.6% in 2023 and 9.9% in 2022. The capital Chișinău, which accounts for about 37% of permits, recorded an even sharper fall, of nearly 16% year-on-year.
Pressure on land, rising construction costs
Developers report several structural constraints: difficulty in acquiring buildable land (scarcity of municipal tenders, high prices of private plots), stricter regulatory requirements, rising wages in construction, and soaring material costs.
Construction cost is estimated around €650/m², creating a significant gap with average selling prices.
Result: some developers are reducing or delaying their projects, fueling a loop where weak supply feeds price increases… which ultimately dampens demand.
A plateauing market: drop in transactions in 2025
While 2024 was marked by a solid rebound in the number of sales, 2025 shows signs of a downturn in terms of volume. Prices remain high, but buyers are becoming scarcer.
From overheating to cooling volumes
In the first three quarters of 2024, the Moldovan residential market recorded 24,324 housing sales (houses and apartments), a 12.84% increase year-on-year. Chișinău and its suburbs account for 53% of these transactions. In the capital, apartment sales rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while sales of single-family homes increased by over 34%.
Number of apartment transactions recorded in Chișinău in the first nine months of 2025, a decline of over 50% compared to 2024.
This contraction, combined with an increasing average time to sell (from 1–2 months in 2021–2024 to 3–4 months in 2025), suggests the market has entered a plateauing phase: prices are reaching a threshold that many households can no longer cross, even with attractive interest rates.
Affordability significantly declining
Affordability indicators confirm this growing pressure on households. In 2020, purchasing one square meter of housing required on average the equivalent of 1.7 monthly salaries; today it requires 2.1. The time needed to finance a 60 m² apartment has increased from 8.7 years of income in 2020 to about 10.3 years today.
| Affordability Indicator | 2020 | Current Situation |
|---|---|---|
| Salaries needed for 1 m² | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Years of salary for 60 m² | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| Average apartment price (approx.) | €45,000 | >€100,000 |
Paradoxically, wages have risen significantly, with the average income in Chișinău increasing from about €422 in 2019 to nearly €900 in mid-2024. The wage / price per m² ratio (a more technical indicator) even improved slightly, from 0.65 to 0.68 between 2018–2020 and 2021–2024. But the speed of real estate price increases, particularly since 2022, has ultimately outpaced this gain in purchasing power.
A rental market explosion: rents, yields, and formalization
Another major facet of current trends: the growing strength of the rental market, particularly in Chișinău. The capital is gradually moving towards a model closer to major European cities, where renting is becoming an increasingly common option, even for families.
Rents experiencing strong inflation
Since the arrival of Ukrainian refugees in 2022, rental demand has surged, while available supply has remained limited. The result is a spike in rents, increasing much faster than the general consumer price index.
Between 2022 and 2024, average rents for apartments in Chișinău increased by 25 to 30%. The “rents” component of the price index reached an annual increase of 18.2% in November 2024. In local currency, some rents have simply doubled since 2019.
| Apartment Type | Average rent 2022 (€/month) | Average rent 2024 (€/month) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 bedroom | 250–300 | 400–450 |
| 2 bedrooms | 300–400 | 500–550 |
| 3 bedrooms | 400–500 | 600–650 |
In central neighborhoods and premium areas, rents can reach several thousand euros per month depending on size, standard, and amenities (with a general range from €200 to €3,000 monthly). The “Centru” sector remains traditionally the most expensive, followed by Râșcani and Botanica.
Among the highest rental yields in the region
For investors, this rapid rise in rents combined with a price per m² still lower than many European capitals results in particularly attractive gross yields. In January 2025, the average gross residential rental yield in Chișinău is estimated at 8.38%.
| Chișinău District | Average gross rental yield (Jan. 2025) |
|---|---|
| Center | 8.42% |
| Râșcani | 8.93% |
| Botanica | 8.01% |
| City average | 8.38% |
These yield levels largely explain why residential real estate is perceived as one of the best investments accessible to Moldovan individuals and foreign investors. They also support the thesis of a ” expensive but not speculative ” market: high prices remain aligned with robust rental income.
Rise of tenant households and formalization
Historically, Moldova was a country of homeowners. But the trend is changing. Twenty years ago, only a handful of families (about 6%) lived in rented accommodation; today, this share has risen to about 15%. Economists expect it to continue increasing to gradually approach the European average.
The number of registered rental contracts increased by over 10% in the first seven months of 2024 (i.e., 14,677 contracts). Meanwhile, tax on rental income jumped by 34.1% year-on-year. This increase indicates that more landlords are using the official channel, under the effect of strengthened tax controls and the appeal of banking.
Between risk and opportunities: a bubble-free but tense market
Analyses converge on one point: despite the rapidity of price increases, the Moldovan real estate market does not currently show the characteristics of a classic bubble.
Rental income is keeping pace with price growth, yields remain high, the weight of non-performing loans is low, and the level of household mortgage debt remains modest relative to GDP. Moreover, wage growth, especially in the IT and services sectors, provides a base of solvent demand, at least in the capital.
Identified main risks include the proximity of the war in Ukraine, the frozen conflict in Transnistria, energy security with gas price shocks and local crises, the volatility of diaspora remittance flows, and changes in the regulatory framework.
The introduction of a strict limitation on cash payments for real estate transactions — a ceiling set at the equivalent of about €80,000 starting spring 2025 — illustrates this last point. Officially, the measure aims to combat money laundering, but professionals fear it may hinder some transactions in a market where prices have risen sharply.
Underlying trends: suburbanization, sustainability, and digitalization
Beyond cyclical figures, several underlying trends are reshaping the contours of the Moldovan real estate market.
The push of suburban residential and single-family homes
The Covid‑19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for an increased preference for larger spaces, single-family houses, and green suburban neighborhoods. This phenomenon, visible in many metropolitan areas, is also verified around Chișinău.
Transaction statistics show a marked increase in sales of single-family homes (+34% in the first three quarters of 2024 in Chișinău and its belt) and an increase in their price of about 10% already in 2022. Residential projects of the “cottage” or “village” type (Cottage Residence, Hora Village, Satul German, Poiana Pinului, etc.) are beginning to structure a genuine suburban supply for middle and upper classes.
Public infrastructure programs (roads, water supply, urban facilities) engaged for the 2023-2030 period improve the accessibility and attractiveness of the concerned areas, reinforcing the suburbanization trend.
Growing appeal of sustainable and energy-efficient housing
The energy crisis and rising energy prices have accelerated interest in well-insulated buildings, equipped with modern heating, ventilation systems, and sometimes renewable solutions (solar panels, heat pumps).
Market studies report increasing demand for “green” or “eco-efficient” housing, making it a key selling point for new projects. In a country still heavily dependent on energy imports, the ability to reduce bills becomes an important differentiator, both for sale and rent.
Rapid digitalization of the real estate sector
In a country where the national digital transformation strategy aims to make Moldova a “digital nation” by 2030, the real estate sector is not escaping modernization.
Real estate professionals now heavily use digital tools such as online platforms, AI data analysis, electronic signatures, and virtual tours to facilitate transactions, especially with the buying diaspora abroad. In parallel, administrative reforms are underway to enable notaries to directly access public registers (cadastre, taxation, commercial register), aiming to simplify and speed up transaction procedures.
PropTech start-ups and the rise of the Moldova Innovation Technology Park, which offers a simplified tax regime of 7% on turnover, reinforce this movement of integrating digital technology into the entire real estate cycle, from prospecting to property management.
A favorable but fragile macroeconomic and European context
The trajectory of Moldova’s real estate market is not separate from its macroeconomic environment and its rapprochement with the European Union.
After a contraction in 2022, real GDP returned to growth (0.7% in 2023, estimated about 2.6% for 2024). The International Monetary Fund and the European Commission anticipate a gradual acceleration to 3.7–3.8% in 2025 and over 4% in 2026. Inflation, which peaked at nearly 29% in 2022, fell back to around 5% in 2024, within the BNM’s target.
Obtaining EU candidate status in 2022, the opening of negotiations in 2024, and a constitutional referendum confirming the European orientation strengthen investor confidence. This dynamic is praised by rating agencies, such as Fitch which assigns a B+ rating with a stable outlook, highlighting the resilience of the banking sector and the anchoring in a reform process.
This trajectory attracts significant flows of foreign direct investment, including in real estate and related sectors (construction, materials, services). Major European funding programs are planned for 2025–2027 to support reforms, infrastructure, and the energy transition, with expected spillovers on real estate asset values, especially in areas connected to major transport corridors or industrial projects.
Outlook: moderate price increases, gradual market easing
Forecasts by local players for the coming years remain generally optimistic but cautious. For 2025, most analysts anticipate moderate price increases, on the order of an additional €50/m² in Chișinău, representing much smoother growth than the jumps in late 2023 and early 2024.
The average price per square meter in Paris could reach around €1,800 by 2026, with adjusted inflation of 5 to 7%.
This gradual arrival of new apartments and houses could help calm price increases, without reversing the underlying appreciation trend, especially if the economy continues its convergence towards European standards and if interest rates remain contained.
Conclusion: a market at a crossroads
The current trends in Moldova’s real estate market paint the picture of a sector in full transformation: prices have doubled compared to 2019, rents are rising at a frantic pace, demand remains solid despite a recent decline in transactions, and rental yields are among the most attractive in the region.
The current model presents several major weaknesses: a severe deterioration in affordability for first-time buyers, a shortage of new housing, a growing weight of long-term debt, and a dependence on diaspora financial flows and geopolitical contexts.
The coming decade will be decisive. It will have to combine, within an increasingly European framework, three major projects: relaunching supply by relaxing and modernizing urban planning, curbing speculation through better-targeted taxation, and developing a quality, accessible, and energy-efficient rental stock. This is the price to pay for Moldova to transform the current phase of tension into a sustainable trajectory of real estate development, serving both investors and households.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
