Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
In a context of still-high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and tighter credit, placing several hundred thousand euros into an apartment in Bangkok, a condo in Ho Chi Minh City, or a villa in Bali is no trivial matter. Yet these three markets remain at the heart of international investors’ strategies, as they seek rental yield, capital appreciation, and for some, a foothold in the sun.
In 2026, choosing between Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia (especially Bali) goes beyond merely picking a destination: it means comparing three distinct economic trajectories, legal frameworks, and risk profiles, with varying returns, security, and upside potential.
This overview relies exclusively on hard data and analyses from institutions and specialized firms cited in the research report, to help a French-speaking investor decide among these three options.
Understanding the Game: Yield, Security, Growth
Before diving into the country-by-country details, it helps to set the stage. The three markets are at different points in their cycles and cater to distinct investment logics.
Thailand is a mature market with a stable legal framework and high liquidity, but limited upside potential. Vietnam is a ‘Rising Star’ with rapid economic growth and explosive public investment, yet complex regulations and declining rental yields. Indonesia, dominated by Bali, offers spectacular returns via Airbnb, but fragile property rights for foreigners.
We can summarize the logic of each market right away:
| Market | Overall Profile in 2026 | Primary Investment Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Thailand | Mature, highly liquid market | Rental cash flow + moderate appreciation |
| Vietnam | High-growth emerging market | Medium/long-term capital gains, secondary yield |
| Indonesia (Bali) | Ultra-profitable tourist market, more restrictive legal environment | High rental yield, opportunistic approach |
The central question therefore becomes: Are you primarily seeking legal security, yield, or an economic growth catalyst? The answer will naturally guide you toward one of these countries.
Thailand: The Regional “Safe Haven” for Foreigners
Thailand remains, by far, the most accessible and best-structured country for a typical foreign investor who wants to buy a property in their own name, collect rental income, and eventually resell without too much friction.
A Proven Legal Framework: The “Gold Standard” of Condo Freehold
The key point about the Thai market is simple: a foreigner cannot own land, but they can hold full freehold ownership of an apartment in a condominium building, up to 49% of the total salable floor area of the building. This mechanism, governed by the Condominium Act of 1979, has worked for decades. The foreign buyer receives a genuine title deed (Chanote) in their name, and this regime is widely considered the regional “gold standard” for non-residents.
For villas and houses, the only truly compliant path remains a 30-year lease, sometimes with contractual renewal options (30+30+30). Strictly legally, this is a temporary right, but the initial 30-year lease, when properly registered, is robust.
Add to this a favorable tax environment: the annual land and building tax is very low, around 0.02% to 0.1% for residential use. Transaction costs (transfer fees, stamp duty, withholding tax) generally range between 3% and 6% depending on the structure.
The combination of condo freehold, low recurring taxes, and a deep secondary market places Thailand well above Vietnam and Indonesia in terms of legal security for foreign buyers.
Decent and Fairly Stable Yields
In terms of rental yield, Thailand is no longer the land of easy 10% gross returns. Aggregated data shows a national average of around 6.4% gross and 4.1% net in early 2026, with significant variations by city and product type.
The main segments break down as follows:
| Location / Product | Typical Gross Yield | Typical Net Yield | Summary Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok (Sukhumvit/Silom) | 4–5.5% | 3–4% | Prime condos, strong demand, high prices |
| Bangkok Suburbs | 6–6.7% | 4–5% | Lower price per sqm, deep rental market |
| Phuket (managed condos & villas) | 5–7% | 5–7% | Beach resorts, structured short-term rental |
| Pattaya (studios) | 8.2% | 5–6% | Best price/yield ratio, strong leisure demand |
| Chiang Mai | 4–5% | 3–4% | Long-stay market, digital nomads |
Phuket and Pattaya clearly stand out in the leisure segment: for villas or condos managed as hotel-like products, gross yields can climb between 8% and 15% according to CBRE and other sources, especially when operations rely on short-term rentals near the beaches. However, some of these revenues come from “para-hotel” arrangements that require licenses and may fall into a regulatory gray area.
Bangkok, on the other hand, has normalized: prime condos in central districts (Thonglor, Sukhumvit, Silom, Sathorn) trade around $3,500 to $6,500 per square meter, with yields compressing to 3.8–6% gross and more like 3–4% net. To compensate, investors rely more on the stability of rental demand (expatriates, executives, young urbanites who prefer renting over buying) and long-term rent growth.
A Residential Market in a Digestive Phase
In 2026, Thailand is not in the middle of a boom but rather a “sorting out” phase. The residential market is split between a struggling lower end (over-indebted households, limited credit access, large supply of affordable condos on the outskirts) and a much more resilient high-end segment in prime neighborhoods and beach resorts.
Several factors illustrate this digestive phase:
– Residential transfer volumes are near an eight-year low, with forecasts of slight contraction for 2026.
– New condo launches in Bangkok have dropped to historically low levels: in some recent years, more than 20,000 units per quarter were launched, compared to 15,000–17,000 expected for the whole of 2026.
– Banks have tightened lending criteria: credit rejection rates reach 40–70% for segments worth 1–2 million baht, in a context of household debt exceeding 90% of GDP.
– The government is trying to support the market through a temporary reduction in transfer and mortgage registration fees (0.01% on properties up to 7 million baht) and a temporary relaxation of loan-to-value rules.
Behind this mixed picture, however, there are positive signals for foreign investors: oversupply is slowing, developers are more selective with projects, and foreign demand for prime products remains solid. CBRE, for instance, notes a 93% sales rate for existing luxury and super-luxury condo stock in Bangkok.
Tourism, Visas, and Long-Term Appeal
On the macro front, Thailand remains the number one tourist destination in the region, with more than 35 million international visitors expected in 2026 according to Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) projections. Phuket and Koh Samui ride a steady flow of Russian, Chinese, and European tourists, which mechanically boosts demand for short-term rental villas and condos.
Minimum investment of $500,000 in real estate, bonds, or direct investment required for some long-stay programs in Thailand.
Overall, Thailand ticks the “balanced risk/return” box. Yields are not the highest in the region, but the legal framework is clear, property taxes are light, and the secondary market is deep. For an investor who wants an apartment in their own name, decent resale liquidity, and 3–6% net depending on the city, it remains a very solid core holding.
Vietnam: The Region’s Rocket, But Not for Fans of Easy Yield
Vietnam differs radically from Thailand and Indonesia in its land structure: no plot is truly held in freehold. All land belongs to the people, represented by the state, and individuals and companies only hold “land use rights.” For a foreign investor, this translates into Land Use Rights certificates or property rights over buildings, but never a land title in the classical sense.
A Legal Framework in Flux, But Clearer Now
Since 2024–2025, the country has launched a deep overhaul of its real estate legal arsenal. The new Land Law 2024, the Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law have taken effect, providing more regulation of foreign rights. The main outlines are now relatively clear:
A foreigner can purchase an apartment in an approved commercial residential project on the basis of a 50-year lease, renewable once (up to 100 years total). Foreign ownership is capped at 30% of units in a building and 10% of individual houses (max. 250 per ward). The buyer holds a fixed-term usage right to the building (Pink Book), without land ownership. Buying vacant lots, agricultural land, or sensitive areas is prohibited. Costs include 10% VAT on new builds, a 2% maintenance fund, condo fees of $0.6 to $1.2/sqm/month, and property management fees of 15–25% of income.
The reform strengthens transparency (mandatory clear legal status, foreign quotas, payment ceilings before delivery) and aims to curb speculation that had led to annual price increases of 20–30% in some years.
For overseas Vietnamese (Viet Kiêu) holding a Vietnamese passport, the situation is far more favorable: since the Land Law 2024, they enjoy land use rights almost equivalent to those of citizens, with the ability to buy individual houses with land, mortgage them, transfer them, etc. This amounts to a genuine quasi-resident landowner status.
Rental Yields Compressed, But Strong Upside Potential
In terms of pure rental yield, Vietnam often surprises foreign investors: despite the “El Dorado” narrative, the major cities no longer deliver the 7–8% gross figures still circulating in some discussions.
Recent data indicates instead:
| Vietnamese Market | Typical Gross Yield (Residential) | Typical Net Yield | Main Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) | 3.5–4.5% | 2.5–3.5% | Central districts, prime condos |
| Hanoi (prime areas) | 4–5% | 2.5–4% | Strong recent price increases |
| Da Nang (long-term rental) | 4.5–6% | 3–4% | Beach, marked seasonality |
| Da Nang (short-term rental) | 5–8% (seasonal peaks) | 5–8% (favorable cases) | Highly seasonal, tourism-dependent |
Multiple sources converge: in HCMC, the median gross yield is around 3.7%, net around 2.9%. In Hanoi, it’s in the 4–5% gross range. In Da Nang, high-season peaks can temporarily push gross figures up, but at the cost of significant vacancy outside tourist periods.
Cap rates in central areas have fallen to 3.5–4% due to property price increases outpacing rent growth.
In compensation, the capital appreciation potential remains high. Credible projections suggest 6–10% annual growth possible in well-positioned emerging areas, and 5–8% for well-located residential projects in Hanoi and HCMC, driven by the massive acceleration of infrastructure spending.
An Infrastructure Machine Driving Land Values
Vietnam’s great structural advantage is the scale of its public investment program. The 2026–2030 plan allocates 8,510,000 billion dong in spending, more than double the previous plan. The 2026 budget is 41.7% higher than 2025. Concurrently, mega-structural projects are underway or planned: the North–South high-speed railway (around $67 billion), Long Thành International Airport (first phase expected in 2026), expressways, international transit ports, urban metros in Hanoi and HCMC, etc.
Selected figures illustrate this dynamic:
| Key Vietnam Indicator | Value / Trend |
|---|---|
| GDP growth forecast 2026 | Approximately 6.3% |
| Real estate share in expanded GDP | Approximately 15% (including indirect effects) |
| Infrastructure spending growth | Around 20–30% per year in the short term |
| Expressway mileage (2020 → today) | From 1,000 km to 3,200 km |
| FDI (disbursed) 2024 | $25.4 billion (record) |
| FDI disbursed H1 2025 | $11.7 billion (record for a first half) |
This wave of investment mechanically fuels residential demand around new corridors (TOD, Transit-Oriented Development): metro stations, ring roads, highway interchanges, industrial zones. The question is not whether prices will rise over ten years, but where and at what pace.
A Market Becoming More Professional
After the speculative excesses of 2020–2022 (quick land flips, empty apartments bought purely as lottery tickets), the government has tightened the screws: legal reforms, a future anti-speculation tax, stricter bank lending to the real estate sector, and a stated preference for “clean” projects (complete documents, clear legal status, social balance).
A year of consolidation marked by increased supply and price stabilization, supported by infrastructure and FDI.
Over 130,000 new residential products expected in 2026, strengthening the market.
Primary prices expected to stabilize or slightly correct after 2025’s excesses.
Underlying appreciation continues, driven by infrastructure and foreign direct investment.
For a foreign investor, the message is twofold:
– Net rental yields (2.5–4%) are modest given the legal risk (50-year leases, quotas, usage rights).
– The main leverage is on price appreciation tied to economic growth (forecast ~6.3% GDP growth in 2026) and the infrastructure boost.
In other words, Vietnam is best suited for profiles able to hold for 5–10 years, comfortable with administrative complexity, and targeting capital gains rather than cash flow.
Indonesia: Bali, Regional Yield Champion… Under Close Legal Scrutiny
When Indonesia comes up on a foreign investor’s radar, the name is almost always the same: Bali. The island dominates the country’s international real estate narrative, driven by a robust tourism industry, the explosion of remote work, and the massive rise of short-term rentals.
An Unusual Tourist Market, Powered by Airbnb
Bali in 2026 is one of the strongest tourist markets in Southeast Asia. International traffic far exceeded 6.3 million visitors in 2024, with projections of 6.5 to 7 million annual arrivals in the medium term and growth of 8–12% per year. On some peak months, arrivals already exceed pre-pandemic levels.
This flow translates into record demand for modern private villas, especially on Airbnb and other platforms. In areas like Canggu, Berawa, Uluwatu, or Seminyak, pool villas command high rental rates with high occupancy, pushing yields well beyond regional standards.
Available data indicates:
– An average gross yield of around 8–15% on premium short-term rental villas.
– An average of 7–12% net for well-managed, well-located villas.
– Peaks of 18–20% net in very tight micro-markets like Canggu, Uluwatu, or Pandawa when the tax and operational setup is optimized.
Area breakdown:
| Bali Area | Estimated Gross Yield | Typical Net Yield | Investment Profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canggu / Berawa | 8–12% | 7–15% (max 18–20%) | Core short-term rental, digital nomads |
| Pererenan | 9–13% | 5–8% | Rising corridor, plus appreciation |
| Uluwatu / Bingin | 8–12% (ADR $280–$420) | 12–18% net (more volatile) | Cliffside villas, luxury, surf, high cyclicality |
| Seminyak | 6–10% | 4–7% | Established villa market, more defensive |
| Ubud | 7–10% | 4–6% | Wellness retreats, more ‘defensive’ market |
| Pandawa / Sawangan | – | 12.8–19.3% net | ‘Structurally’ cost-advantaged market |
These numbers are hard to ignore: no other ‘Tier 1’ market in the region offers, on a large scale, net yields approaching 15–20% on products priced at $250,000–$600,000.
A Cycle in a Normalization Phase
After several years of frenzy (proliferation of small developers, unrealistic yield promises, land price inflation), Bali enters 2026 in a normalization and professionalization phase.
Several signs point to this:
– The market has moved from pure euphoria to stabilization, with solid but more selective sales volumes.
– A significant share of pre-sale projects (nearly 38%) is struggling, with some construction sites halted for over 18 months, revealing risks of oversupply and bankruptcies.
– Poorly positioned or overvalued assets are correcting, while quality products in the best locations continue to outperform.
– The market is professionalizing under the effect of new regulations (full digitalization of procedures, tighter developer oversight, audit requirements, graduated sanctions, etc.).
– Platforms like Airbnb, Booking.com, and Expedia now require, as of 2026, a validated business registration number (NIB) and remove unlicensed listings.
For the investor, this means a paradigm shift: from a gold rush to an environment where compliance, operational quality, and the reliability of the operator have become just as important as the villa’s design.
Restricted Property Rights for Foreigners
This is the flip side of the Bali coin: in terms of land ownership, Indonesia is the most restrictive of the three jurisdictions for a foreign individual.
Key principles apply:
A foreigner cannot hold a freehold title (Hak Milik), which is reserved for Indonesian citizens. The accessible rights are all temporary and renewable: Hak Pakai (right to use) for an individual with a residence permit (30 years, extendable up to 80); Hak Guna Bangunan (HGB) via a PT PMA (foreign-owned company) for construction (30+20+30 years); and a simple leasehold (lease) signed with an Indonesian owner (25–30 years, renewable).
Furthermore, the regulatory reforms of 2025–2026 have strengthened controls:
– Introduction of a stricter licensing system for developers (three-stage review, budget control, financial audit).
– Strengthened crackdown on ‘nominee’ structures (apparent ownership by an Indonesian on behalf of a foreigner), with Bali explicitly criminalizing such arrangements.
– Obligation for companies (PT PMA) to update their business activity codes (KBLI), especially for rental villas (codes 55203, 55106, 55204, 55209).
– Clear definition of a Certificate of Proper Operation (SLF) as a mandatory condition for using, selling, or leasing a building.
To be compliant, a foreigner must set up a PT PMA with a paid-up capital of at least 2.5 billion rupiah ($150,000) and an investment plan exceeding 10 billion rupiah, then operate under the ‘villas’ or ‘accommodation’ category. An individual holding a Hak Pakai for residential purposes does not have the right to operate their property for tourist rental.
A Competitive Tax Environment
On the tax front, Indonesia remains attractive for real estate compared to other major international markets:
– At purchase, the transfer tax (BPHTB) is 5% of the taxable value (price or official NJOP value, whichever is higher), after deducting a locally set allowance.
– The standard VAT is 11%, with a scheduled increase to 12% for certain luxury goods, but the government reinstated a VAT exemption (PPN-DTP) for 2026 on the first 2 billion rupiah of a new home’s price (up to a total of 5 billion rupiah), applicable once per person.
– Rental income is subject to a 20% withholding tax on gross income for non-residents, but double taxation treaties can reduce this rate to 10%.
The total “round-trip” cost (buying + selling) generally falls in the range of 9.5% to 14% of the value, including registration fees, any VAT, final tax on resale, and notary fees.
The message for the investor is clear: the real constraint in Indonesia is not the tax system, but the legal and operational structuring. Those willing to set up properly (PT PMA, SLF, villa license, Airbnb compliance) can benefit from a competitive tax environment with yields well above the regional average.
When You Lay It All Out: How to Compare the Three Countries?
To truly decide between Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, you have to accept that they are playing different games. Still, we can compare them on a few key axes.
Synthetic View of Yields
| Country / Area | Typical Gross Yield (Residential) | Typical Net Yield | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand (average) | 4–6.5% | 3–5% | Mature market, stable cash flow |
| Phuket (Thailand) | 7–10% (9–12% short-term) | 5–7% | Legally simpler than Bali |
| Vietnam (major cities) | 3.5–5% | 2.5–4% | Yields compressed, price appreciation primary |
| Da Nang (Vietnam) | 4.5–6% (up to 8% in high season) | 3–5% | Strong seasonality, short-term rental regulation |
| Indonesia (average) | ~8.3% | 3–6% | National average, Bali pulls figures up |
| Bali (prime villas) | 8–15% | 7–12% (can reach 18–20%) | Ultra-profitable, heavily Airbnb-oriented |
Three profiles immediately emerge:
– Thailand, especially with Phuket, offers respectable yields but above all superior stability and legal simplicity.
– Vietnam now offers modest yields, offset by a strong capital appreciation outlook, at the cost of strictly leasehold ownership.
– Bali outclasses everyone in terms of gross/net yield on villas, but with the weakest property rights, high dependence on tourism, and the need for corporate structuring.
Legal Security and Property Rights
On this front, the order of preference for a foreign individual is fairly clear:
In Thailand, a foreigner can buy a condo in freehold within the 49% quota, while villas are on a 30-year lease, with a liquid secondary market and light property taxes. In Vietnam, ownership is limited to 50 years (renewable once) with quotas of 30% in buildings and 250 houses per ward, never owning the land. In Indonesia, foreigners cannot own land under Hak Milik and must use limited usage rights (Hak Pakai) or a PT PMA company for building rights (HGB); it is the most restrictive system, though yields in Bali can be attractive.
Liquidity and Secondary Market Depth
For easy resale in 5 or 10 years, not all jurisdictions are equal:
Analysis of real estate market liquidity for investors in Thailand, Vietnam, and Bali.
Very liquid market with a significant foreign share (up to 14.7% of transfer volumes and 25% by value). A well-located condo in Bangkok or Phuket almost always finds a buyer.
Market largely dominated by local buyers. The secondary market is less fluid, especially for high-priced properties and those held by foreigners (quotas, lease duration, regulations).
Real liquidity in certain corridors (Canggu, Uluwatu, Seminyak), but cyclical and dependent on tourism conditions and the ability to take over a PT PMA structure.
Macroeconomic Framework and Growth Trajectory
Over the 2026–2030 horizon, the trajectories are also distinct:
– Thailand advances with moderate growth (2.5–4% GDP depending on scenarios), an aging population, and a already well-developed real estate market. The potential for annual price appreciation of 3–5% remains credible, especially in Bangkok and Phuket.
– Vietnam is at a pivotal moment, with growth forecasts around 6.3% in 2026, explosive public investment, a booming industrial sector (China+1), and rapid urbanization. Real estate prices have already shown gains well above Thailand’s, and nothing suggests a deep downturn—only a normalization of the pace.
– Indonesia, via Bali, benefits from a different engine: international mobility, tourism, and the digital economy. Projections point to continued growth in tourist arrivals and a relative shortage of quality compliant supply, which should support rents and asset values in the best locations.
Which Country for Which Type of Investor?
To turn this diagnosis into a strategy, it helps to identify a few typical investor profiles and see where each country provides the best answer.
The “Cash-Flow” Investor with a 5–7 Year Horizon
This investor seeks solid rental yield with reasonable visibility over 5 to 7 years, without necessarily wanting to deal with overly complex structures.
– Option 1: Phuket / Pattaya (Thailand) Gross yields of 7–10% (even 9–12% with well-run short-term rentals) and net yields of 5–7% are achievable on managed properties, within a freehold framework for condos and simple leasehold for villas. Low property taxes, developed secondary market, moderate risk.
– Option 2: Bali, but with a structured PT PMA For those willing to accept complexity, a well-set-up PT PMA allows capturing double-digit net yields on villas in Canggu / Uluwatu / Pandawa. But this is more a professional operator’s game than a passive investor’s.
In emerging districts of Da Nang or HCMC, small condos offer gross yields of 5 to 7%, but management is heavy and regulatory risks on short-term rentals are high. The main appeal lies in potential resale value appreciation.
The 10-Year Capital Appreciation Player
Here, the primary goal is capital multiplication over a long cycle, rather than collecting high rents in the short term.
– Vietnam first Between the explosion of public investment, GDP growth, urbanization, rapid price increases in Hanoi and HCMC, and the gradual opening to foreign capital, Vietnam remains the best “growth story” in the region. Net yields of 3–4% are a bonus, not the core of the game.
In addition, Thailand offers moderate annual growth prospects of 3 to 5% on scarce locations like Bangkok’s CBD, certain luxury projects, or Phuket’s waterfront, with a controlled risk profile.
The Couple or Family Looking for a Second Home + Rental Income
For those who want to use the property several weeks a year, rent it out the rest of the time, and avoid legal complexity:
– Phuket / Koh Samui / Chiang Mai (Thailand) Managed condos or villas allow a mix of personal use and rental within a comfortable legal framework. Net yield 3–6% depending on the case, with long-stay visa options (Elite/LTR) as a bonus.
– Bali for primarily personal use A Hak Pakai for a primary residence, used as a holiday home, remains an attractive option if the goal is not to run a short-term rental business. Returns then take a back seat.
– Vietnam as a last resort for this profile The 50-year limit, complex rules, and compressed yields make Vietnam less suited for the “second home + modest income” buyer who mainly wants simplicity.
In 2026, Where to Invest in Real Estate: Strategic Reading
In summary, based on observable facts in 2026:
– For an investor prioritizing risk/return balance and legal simplicity, Thailand remains ahead. Bangkok for stability and liquidity, Phuket to optimize yield without exposing oneself to Indonesian complexity, Pattaya for the best price/yield ratio.
– For an investor wanting to maximize capital growth over 10 years, even at the cost of low yield and time-limited property rights, Vietnam is the most interesting piece of the puzzle. The key is to target locations with strong infrastructure leverage and partner with reputable developers.
For a professional investor willing to set up a local company, manage licenses and staff within a legally uncertain environment, Bali in Indonesia offers net yields potentially reaching 15 to 20%.
Rather than seeking a binary answer to the question “Thailand vs Vietnam vs Indonesia,” more and more sophisticated portfolios adopt a combined strategy: a stable base in Thailand, growth exposure in Vietnam, and an “opportunistic yield” pocket targeting Bali. All of this, of course, while staying disciplined on a point that all three markets insistently remind us of in 2026: without exhaustive due diligence on legal aspects, permits, ownership structure, and the reality of rental demand, even the best theoretical yield can turn into a bad calculation.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
