Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
As China opens a new chapter with its 15th Five-Year Plan, Hong Kong approaches 2026 with a clear ambition: to re-emerge, and more importantly, redefine itself, as the central platform for capital, talent, logistics, culture, and innovation between China and the rest of the world. Behind the official slogans of “super-connector” and “super value-adder,” a profound transformation is underway, impacting the real economy, infrastructure, taxation, demographics, and the cultural landscape.
Singapore is evolving from a regional financial center to a central platform for Asian flows (goods, data, tourists, artists, start-ups, and investments), against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and the reconfiguration of global trade.
An Economy Stabilizing and Reorienting Around Asia
After several turbulent years, the short-term economic momentum has clearly rebounded. Gross domestic product grew by 3.5% in 2025, after 2.6% in 2024, driven by a combined rebound in foreign trade, investment, and a gradual restart of consumption.
Projections for 2026 remain prudent but solid: the government anticipates GDP growth between 2.5% and 3.5%, while the University of Hong Kong and the General Chamber of Commerce converge on a range of 2.5–3%. In the longer term, the announced trajectory is around 3% annual real growth on average between 2027 and 2030, with controlled inflation (1.7% underlying in 2026, close to 2% thereafter).
In 2025, merchandise exports surged by 12%, driven by demand for electronic equipment related to artificial intelligence.
The table below summarizes several key macroeconomic indicators for 2025–2026.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5–3.5% |
| Goods Export Growth | — | +12.0% | +8–9% (HKTDC forecast) |
| Goods Import Growth | — | +12.6% | — |
| Services Export Growth | — | +6.3% Q3 (y-o-y) | — |
| Private Consumption (volume) | — | +1.7% | moderate, supported by tourism |
| Total Investment | — | +4.3% | continued recovery |
| Underlying Inflation | 1.1% | — | 1.7% |
This dynamic is based on a conscious repositioning: Hong Kong is no longer trying to compete with low-cost manufacturing bases, but is specializing as a platform jurisdiction for business models intensive in capital, intellectual property, and cross-border interconnections. In other words, a place for structuring deals, investment vehicles, digital value chains, or high-value-added logistics hubs, rather than factories.
A Financial Gateway: Both Classic and Digital
The figures confirm that the city remains one of the major hubs of global finance. In the 39th edition of the Global Financial Centres Index, Hong Kong retains third place globally, immediately behind New York and London, but has significantly reduced the rating gap. It dominates the Asia-Pacific region and ranks first globally for fintech offerings, as well as for banking, finance, and insurance.
In 2025, the Stock Exchange returned to a vigorous capital-raising cycle: 119 IPOs raised over HK$280 billion, a volume that places Hong Kong at the top globally. The Hang Seng Index climbed about 28% over the year, while the average daily trading volume soared by nearly 90% to approach HK$250 billion.
Net flows into authorized funds domiciled in Hong Kong exceeded HK$380 billion in the first eleven months of 2025.
Hong Kong remains the primary offshore center for the renminbi, with the largest pool of RMB liquidity outside mainland China, the top overseas Chinese currency bond market, and one of the world’s leading foreign exchange markets.
The following table illustrates some recent financial magnitudes.
| Key Financial Indicator | Value / Rank |
|---|---|
| GFCI 39 Ranking (global financial center) | 3rd globally, 1st in Asia-Pacific |
| GFCI 39 Score | 765 points (minimal gap with New York, London) |
| 2025 IPOs | 119 deals, >HK$280 billion raised |
| Hang Seng increase in 2025 | +27.8% |
| Total bank deposits (2025) | HK$19.4 trillion (+12%) |
| Finance’s share of GDP (2023) | 24.9% |
| Number of family offices (end 2025) | >3,380 |
This classic foundation is combined with regulatory acceleration in digital assets and tokenization. A licensing regime for centralized virtual asset platforms has been in effect since 2023, while the market supervisor (SFC) launched an ASPIRE roadmap and a LEAP framework for tokenized assets, with an initial focus on green bonds and real asset-backed securities.
The authorities are preparing a specific licensing framework for crypto-assets and extending preferential tax regimes to digital assets and private credit. The goal is to make Hong Kong a global laboratory for regulated ‘on-chain’ finance, leveraging a common law legal infrastructure and a currency pegged to the US dollar.
A Strategic Pivot Toward the Belt and Road and the Greater Bay Area
The other pillar of the “Asia gateway” strategy lies in the city’s repositioning within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Hong Kong is no longer just a simple participant but aims to become a “value-chain enhancer,” a node that assembles financing, legal expertise, risk management, engineering, ESG standards, and international talent around projects scattered across Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America.
Foreign direct investment figures illustrate this role. In 2024, Hong Kong received the third-largest FDI inflow in the world, while ranking fifth among outward investors. Virtually all Chinese groups expanding internationally go through Hong Kong, which has become both the primary recipient and the main source of FDI for mainland China: the stock of Chinese direct investment in the SAR reached US$1.75 trillion at the end of 2023, representing nearly 60% of the total overseas stock.
Trade with BRI countries exceeded US$300 billion in 2024.
This anchoring relies on a dense institutional architecture: a framework agreement signed in 2017 with the National Development and Reform Commission, a joint conference mechanism since 2018, a dedicated working group within the Steering Group on Integration into National Development, a series of bilateral investment agreements and free trade treaties, and a network of double taxation agreements covering over 50 jurisdictions – of which nearly 60% are BRI countries.
An Extension Toward ASEAN, the Gulf, and Beyond
The repositioning is not limited to Sino-BRI flows. Surveys by the General Chamber of Commerce reveal that over 40% of companies surveyed plan to increase their investments in ASEAN in 2026, and more than a quarter target the Middle East. This is consistent with the economic diplomacy conducted by the government, which is multiplying missions to Gulf countries, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, resulting in memoranda of cooperation on green finance, innovation, and infrastructure.
For foreign investors, Hong Kong now serves as a dual interface: towards China and the Greater Bay Area on one hand, and towards BRI corridors and emerging markets on the other. The “Hong Kong plus mainland” model is developing via dual-entity structures, combining a legal and financial base in Hong Kong with operational platforms in mainland China (like Guangdong), Southeast Asia, or the Middle East.
Logistics and Maritime: Consolidating the Regional Hub Role
The gateway vocation would be meaningless without top-tier logistics infrastructure. Port, air, rail, road: Hong Kong’s transport apparatus is being redeployed to remain competitive in the face of the rise of neighboring ports in the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asian hubs.
A Port in Transition, Between Regional Competition and Greening
Historically, the Hong Kong port was among the world’s top in container volume. However, figures show a long-term decline: from 23.1 million TEUs in 2012 to 16.7 million in 2025. In 2024, container traffic stood at 13.7 million TEUs, of which 10.4 million via the Kwai Tsing terminals and 3.3 million via mid-stream or other berths. A large part of this traffic – about 60% – corresponds to transshipment, confirming its nature as a regional hub.
To strengthen its competitiveness against ports like Shenzhen or Singapore, Hong Kong is betting on a strategic action plan focused on specialization, not a volume race. This plan, structured around ten major strategies and 32 measures, aims to develop high-value-added maritime services such as fleet management, marine insurance, ship finance, arbitration, smart logistics, and green fuels.
The measures deployed are multiple. A Port Community System (PCS) has been implemented, interconnected with the Guangdong e-Port system, allowing real-time tracking of freight flows by sea, land, and air; over 3,000 companies are already registered. The average container vessel turnaround time is significantly lower than the global average (one day versus nearly two for major ports), which remains a tangible advantage for shipping companies.
From 2026, a reform will extend the reduced tax rate of 8.25% to commodities traders and major shipping players. Concurrently, the registration ordinance will be amended to allow dual registration and digitize procedures, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of the Hong Kong Shipping Register.
On the environmental front, the city aims to position itself as a bunkering hub for green marine fuels – methanol in particular – with port dues reductions for vessels propelled by or carrying clean fuels, a subsidy envelope of about HK$34 million, and the creation of dedicated anchorage areas via legislative amendments. Early in 2025, nearly 800 vessels had already benefited from the Green Incentive Scheme, covering over a third of the eligible Hong Kong fleet of more than 5,000 tons.
Aviation, the Discreet Pillar of the Gateway
While the spotlight often focuses on the port, the true backbone of value flows remains aviation. Hong Kong International Airport handled approximately 4.9 to 5.07 million tons of cargo in 2024–2025, making it one of the world’s top cargo airports. Over 140 airlines serve more than 200 destinations, and peak passenger traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
The Hong Kong government is developing an “Airport City” integrating logistics, events, offices, business tourism, and a cultural ecosystem. This project includes the expansion of AsiaWorld-Expo (phase 2 for 2028), the construction of the Airport City Link (autonomous link), the opening of a marina and new retail by around 2028, as well as a logistics park in Dongguan connected to the airport.
Following the same logic of multimodal integration, the city is working on extending the air transshipment cargo exemption regime to sea-sea and sea-air schemes, to smooth flows combining rail, sea, river, and air across the Greater Bay Area and beyond. This is a way to capitalize on its position in Asia-Europe, Asia-Americas corridors, in a context where detours via the Cape of Good Hope and disruptions in Red Sea traffic are profoundly altering supply chains.
A Massive Effort in Infrastructure and Urban Reconfiguration
To continue playing the role of an Asian platform, Hong Kong is betting on an unprecedented wave of public investment. Annual public works expenditure is expected to exceed HK$100 billion in the coming years, with a peak above HK$120 billion over two to three fiscal years. Total construction output will climb towards HK$300 billion annually.
The Northern Metropolis is a development project covering about 300 km² in northern Hong Kong, integrated into Greater Bay Area planning.
Simultaneously, the San Tin Technopole, the Hetao Shenzhen‑Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Co‑operation Zone (whose Hong Kong part became operational in late 2025), new districts in Hung Shui Kiu/Ha Tsuen, as well as extensions of metro lines and key roads (Route 6, Hong Kong–Shenzhen Western Rail Link, Northern Link, extensions of existing lines) are profoundly reshaping the urban and logistics map.
On the energy and environmental front, the city is preparing a hydrogen certification plan for 2027, deploying a green transition roadmap for buses and taxis (with subsidies for purchasing about 600 electric buses and 3,000 electric taxis), and investing heavily in charging-equipped parking spaces and lots (target of about 200,000 equipped spaces by 2027).
Innovation, AI, and “New Industrialization”: The Gateway’s Tech Society
The transformation of Hong Kong is not only about physical infrastructure. It also involves a deliberate reorientation toward innovation and technology, defined in the Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Development Blueprint. The vision: to become an international innovation hub, capable of contributing to China’s technological self-reliance while widely opening up to global talent and capital.
Several funding envelopes of HK$10 billion each have been launched to accelerate research commercialization, support new industrialization, and create a deeptech fund.
Major sectoral priorities are clearly identified: life and health technologies, artificial intelligence and robotics, microelectronics and open architectures like RISC‑V, new energies, aerospace industry, quantum technologies, and new materials. Hong Kong has already attracted over 500 cutting-edge or high-potential enterprises in these fields since 2023, while the number of start-ups has multiplied nearly fivefold in a decade, reaching about 4,700 in 2024.
The city’s total computing power is now estimated to reach 5,000 petaFLOPS, boosted by a supercomputing center dedicated to AI.
This technological upgrading is accompanied by training and reskilling initiatives: the Employees Retraining Board is transforming into “Upskill Hong Kong” with AI modules for workers, intensified higher education efforts, and AI training requirements for civil servants, while 91% of companies surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce consider AI integration “essential” to their operations.
Taxation, Regulation, Business Climate: A Singular Legal Platform
For international investors, much of Hong Kong’s appeal lies in its specific legal and fiscal environment, both aligned with international standards and distinct from the rest of China.
Hong Kong’s tax system is territorial: only locally sourced profits are taxed. The standard corporate tax rate is 16.5%, with a two-tier regime (8.25% on the first HK$2 million of profit). There is no VAT or capital gains tax. However, the adoption of OECD Pillar 2 (minimum effective tax rate of 15% for large groups) is underway and is expected to generate about HK$15 billion in additional annual revenue from 2027–2028.
To support households and businesses in an uncertain global economic climate, the 2026‑27 budget provides for 100% rebates on 2025‑26 profits tax and salaries tax, capped at HK$3,000 per case, as well as temporary relief on property rates and extra payments for social security benefits. The message is twofold: maintain a very low average tax burden, while targeting support to sectors deemed strategic.
An Advisory Committee on Tax Policy will be established to continuously assess the attractiveness of the tax system, with the possibility of halving tax rates (down to 5%) for certain priority activities. Furthermore, the 2025 redomiciliation reform now allows foreign companies to transfer their domicile to Hong Kong without a liquidation procedure, strengthening its role as a home port for Asian holdings.
Finally, the signing of double taxation agreements (51 in force early 2025, 52 by end-May according to another count, and 18 under negotiation) completes the arsenal, as does a vast network of investment treaties and free trade agreements covering ASEAN, several Latin American countries, European partners, and BRI economies.
Tourism, Culture, and Creative Industries: The Gateway’s “Soft Power” Component
The image of “Society Hong Kong 2026: Asia Gateway” does not rely solely on stock market figures or logistics yields. It is also played out in museums, festivals, fashion shows, marathons, art toy exhibitions, and contemporary art fairs.
In 2025, the travel and tourism sector accounted for about 13.6% of GDP, roughly US$56.4 billion, and supported nearly 587,000 jobs. Visitor arrivals reached 49.9 million, up 12% from 2024, of which about 76% were from mainland China. The first two months of 2026 confirm a marked rebound, with nearly 10 million visitors in the period (+18%), driven by a jump of over 20% in arrivals from the mainland.
The table below puts the recent tourism trajectory into perspective.
| Tourism Indicator | 2018 (pre-crisis peak) | 2019 | 2025 | 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visitor Arrivals (millions) | 65.3 | ~56 | 49.9 (+12% vs 2024) | 53.8 (+8% vs 2025) |
| Share of Mainland Chinese Visitors | — | — | 76% (~37.8M) | ~79% in Jan-Feb (trend) |
| Average Length of Stay (nights) | — | 3.3 | 3.1 | slight decrease expected |
| Satisfaction Level (score /10) | — | — | 8.9 | maintenance targeted |
Despite the rebound, spending by foreign visitors remains about 15% below 2018 levels, and business traveler spending lags by nearly 17%. At the same time, Singapore and Macao have already surpassed their pre‑COVID tourism spending levels. It is in this context that the government and the Hong Kong Tourism Board are repositioning the offering: more flagship events, diversification of source markets (inland Chinese cities, ASEAN, Middle East, India), upscaling of target segments, and a repositioning of the city as a “multi-dimensional” destination where gastronomy, heritage, festivals, and neighborhood experiences take precedence over pure shopping.
The budget envelope dedicated to tourism for 2026‑27, intended to fund cultural events, a new light show, and strengthening the MICE offering.
A Structured and Funded Cultural Ecosystem
Beyond tourism, the arts, culture, and creative industries constitute a growing segment of the economy. In 2023, these sectors employed about 226,000 people for a total value added of around HK$134.5 billion, representing nearly 4.6% of GDP. “Creative industries” in the government sense alone (advertising, architecture, design, digital entertainment, film, music, publishing-printing, television) comprised over 31,000 establishments and about 133,000 practitioners, generating about HK$66 billion (2.3% of GDP).
Annual public spending on culture in Hong Kong reached over HK$7.3 billion in 2024‑25, an increase of about 76% over ten years.
Infrastructure is keeping pace: the West Kowloon Cultural District, one of the largest integrated cultural districts in the world, already houses Freespace, the Xiqu Centre, the M+ museum of visual culture, and the Hong Kong Palace Museum, which together have welcomed nearly 9.7 million visitors from their opening until autumn 2024. The Lyric Theatre Complex is set to complete the facilities around 2026. The Leisure and Cultural Services Department, for its part, manages 15 museums, two visual arts centers, and 16 performance venues across the territory.
The year planned for the second International Cultural Summit and major regional performing arts gatherings in Hong Kong.
Culture, Tourism, and Asia: A Strategic Triangle
This cultural vibrancy is not just an exercise in local branding. It is part of the national strategy that positions Hong Kong as a “center for international cultural exchange between East and West” within the 14th Five-Year Plan. It also feeds its “super-connector” function with key Asian markets: film co-productions in the region, performance tours in BRI countries, increased participation in fashion weeks and design weeks in mainland China, ASEAN and beyond, exchange programs around intangible heritage or art toy creators.
In practice, this translates into series of creative product showcases dedicated to intangible heritage, art toys, fashion, or lifestyle products, with editions spread from late 2025 to late 2026; by organizing fairs like Ani‑Com & Games Hong Kong, which bring together artists, studios, fans, and buyers from across Asia; or by the growing prominence of the city as a hub for art and collectibles trading, complementing fairs like Art Basel Hong Kong or Art Central.
Demographics, Workforce, and Society: A Gateway Under Demographic Pressure
The dimension “Society Hong Kong 2026: Asia Gateway” cannot be understood without looking at the demographic question. The SAR’s population is stagnating and beginning to decline: around 7.38 million inhabitants in 2026, compared to about 7.49 million in 2020. Official projections anticipate a continuous decline to about 7.25 million in 2030, 6.82 million in 2040, and just over 6 million in 2050.
South Korea’s population is experiencing a contraction coupled with pronounced aging, with an extremely low fertility rate (0.68 children/woman in 2022) and a share of those aged 65 and over expected to almost double by 2033. The median age exceeds 48 years and the working-age population is shrinking, creating labor market tensions and increased dependence on talent immigration.
To compensate for the negative natural balance – in 2025, there were about 31,000 births for 50,000 deaths, a natural deficit of nearly 19,000 people – the government relies on talent attraction and labor import programs. It is these net migration flows that explain the slight population increase observed between end‑2024 and end‑2025, despite falling births.
The demographic reality requires making Hong Kong a hub for Asian talent (AI researchers, engineers, etc.) and re-skilling the local workforce through training to prevent automation and AI from generating structural unemployment, potentially at 3.9% in 2026 according to the Chamber of Commerce.
Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and Risks: A Gateway Under Constraints
Being a gateway also means absorbing external shocks. Hong Kong operates in a particularly turbulent trade environment: Sino‑American tensions, value chain reconfigurations, increased US tariffs on a large part of imports, conflicts in the Red Sea, massive maritime detours, pressure on air cargo capacity on certain corridors.
Over half of Hong Kong companies reported being negatively affected in 2025. The official strategy to respond includes market diversification (ASEAN, Middle East, Latin America, Africa), strengthening synergies with mainland China and the Greater Bay Area, and positioning Hong Kong as a platform for value chain restructuring, especially for companies seeking to reduce their concentrated exposure to the United States or the US dollar.
The authorities are also betting on regulatory innovation – for example around central bank digital currencies, with participation in the m‑CBDC Bridge project with Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and the People’s Bank of China – to facilitate more efficient BRI cross-border payments, less dependent on traditional channels. Similarly, partnerships are being formed with major institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is opening an office in Hong Kong in 2026, or with the Silk Road Fund to co‑finance green infrastructure projects.
According to the American Chamber of Commerce, 92% of large groups do not plan to move their headquarters from Hong Kong in the next three years.
Toward a “Society Hong Kong 2026” More Integrated with Asia
By aggregating these different dimensions – finance, logistics, innovation, culture, tourism, demographics, geopolitics – the emerging image of Society Hong Kong 2026: Asia Gateway is that of a territory that does not seek to return to the status quo ante, but to redefine itself as a platform for aggregating and reallocating resources for the entire Asia‑Pacific.
Hong Kong’s official strategy is based on developing four pillars of excellence (finance, shipping, trade, innovation) complemented by a hub role. This vision now integrates the functions of “super‑connector” and “super value‑adder” into major national initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or Greater Bay Area development. In concrete terms, this means Hong Kong must not only consolidate its traditional sectors, but also amplify its value and connections to serve as a strategic bridge in these major projects.
– channel international capital toward complex Asian projects, combining traditional finance, digital assets, risk insurance, and green finance;
– organize the flow of goods, data, services, and people through a multimodal logistics system meshed with the Pearl River Delta and intercontinental maritime routes;
– serve as a back‑office base for Asian and Western companies wanting to innovate, patent, raise funds, structure joint ventures, or develop cultural intellectual properties;
– project a cultural identity as an “East‑West exchange center” that attracts tourists, creators, researchers, students, and affluent middle classes from the region.
Despite challenges like aging, regional competition, and a mixed international image, Hong Kong is transforming. Supported by solid economic data, major infrastructure programs, tax reform, and the dynamism of its creative and tech industries, the city aims to become much more than a gateway to China, but a central crossroads for tomorrow’s Asia.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
