Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
Singapore’s private residential market in 2026 is both solid, heavily regulated by the authorities, and deeply segmented. At the top of the hierarchy, four poles attract most of the attention from wealthy investors: District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, and Sentosa Cove. All are classified in the Core Central Region (CCR), the most expensive residential heart of the city-state, but their price trajectory, rental yields, and risk profile now share little in common.
This article compares real estate prices in four areas in 2026, with tables and an analysis of factors influencing the rise or fall in values. It allows investors or owner-occupiers to identify premiums and discounts, while explaining how the 60% ABSD tax for foreigners is reshaping the market.
2026 Context: a Market That’s Rising Overall, but Slower
Before diving into the comparison, we need to place District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, and Sentosa within the broader landscape. Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) shows that the overall private price index rose another 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026, following +0.6% the previous quarter. Over one year, the increase stands at about 3.4%, with eight consecutive quarters of growth.
The Outside Central Region (OCR) recorded the highest quarterly price increase for non-landed apartments, with a rise of 2.2%.
The conclusion is clear: the high-end is not booming, but it is holding steady. For an investor, this CCR primarily plays the role of a “safe haven” with moderate appreciation, while the OCR offers more percentage growth, at the cost of potentially higher volatility.
CCR vs. RCR vs. OCR: A Numerical Overview
New launches in 2026 confirm the significantly above-average positioning of the districts we are analyzing. The average prices per square foot (psf) observed on new projects fall into a simple structure.
Table 1 – 2026 Price Benchmarks by Major Region
| Region | Average New Price 2026 (Indicative PSF) | Difference vs. OCR | Key Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCR (Incl. District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, Sentosa) | ~S$3,200 psf | + ~50% | Luxury core, PSF well above market average |
| RCR | ~S$2,700 psf | + ~26% | City fringe, good price/location compromise |
| OCR | ~S$2,150 psf | – | Suburban, main reservoir for volume and % growth |
In this framework, District 9, District 10, and Marina Bay sit well above the average CCR benchmark, with peaks exceeding 4,500 or even 5,000 S$/psf on certain addresses or finishing levels. Sentosa, meanwhile, appears as a “CCR apart,” with lower average PSF but an overall ticket that can reach tens of millions for the most iconic villas.
District 9: The Orchard Address, a Concentration of Luxury and Urban Premium
District 9 is the historic center of gravity for Singapore’s prime residential market. It encompasses the entire Orchard/Cairnhill corridor, River Valley, Scotts Road, and Leonie Hill/Grange Road. Consolidated data for 2026 shows an average level around S$3,500 psf, across all new and resale condos.
This average actually hides considerable dispersion between micro-sectors and projects. It can be summarized as follows.
Table 2 – 2026 Price Ranges in District 9 (Condominiums)
| D9 Sub-Sector | Typical PSF Range 2026 | 2-Bedroom Range | 3-Bedroom Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orchard / Cairnhill | S$3,500 – S$5,500 | S$3.0M – S$5.5M | S$5.0M – S$10M+ |
| River Valley | S$2,800 – S$4,200 | S$2.2M – S$3.8M | S$3.5M – S$7.0M |
| Scotts Road | S$3,200 – S$5,000 | S$2.8M – S$4.8M | S$4.5M – S$9.0M |
| Leonie Hill / Grange Road | S$2,600 – S$3,800 | S$2.0M – S$3.2M | S$3.2M – S$5.5M |
In practice, recent resales on Orchard Boulevard, Cairnhill Road, or River Valley Close have occurred between S$3,200 and S$3,800 psf. The best-placed freehold projects remain anchored at the top of this range, even in quarters where volume declines, a sign that the premium for an Orchard address is far from being questioned.
River Modern, a 455-unit 99-year leasehold project in River Valley, sold 90% of its stock at launch in early 2026 at around S$3,266 psf. River Green, another D9 launch at River Valley Green started in 2024, achieved S$3,385 to S$3,663 psf. Meanwhile, the D9 resale market ranges from S$1,709 psf (RV Suites) to S$2,797 psf (Scotts Highpark), creating a gap of S$1,000 to S$1,900 psf between new and resale.
District 9 therefore stands out for three characteristics: a very wide PSF dispersion, absolute leadership in the prestige segment, and a launch dynamic that remains very lively whenever a well-positioned new project hits the market.
District 10: The School Belt and the Freehold Premium
District 10, covering Bukit Timah, Holland Village, Tanglin, Nassim, and King Albert Park, shares the CCR prime status with District 9, but with a different brand universe. Here, the premium comes not only from the commercial showcase but from proximity to top schools, the depth of family neighborhoods, and a substantial stock of freehold properties.
The 2026 estimate places the District 10 average at approximately S$3,200 psf for condos, a differential of about S$300 psf compared to District 9. This relative discount reflects the gap between the prestige shopping boulevard of Orchard and the more residential, school-oriented profile of Bukit Timah.
Table 3 – 2026 Price Ranges in District 10 (Condominiums)
| D10 Sub-Sector | Typical PSF Range 2026 | 2-Bedroom Range | 3-Bedroom Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holland Village | S$2,500 – S$3,500 | S$1.8M – S$2.8M | S$2.8M – S$4.5M |
| Bukit Timah / Farrer | S$2,200 – S$3,200 | S$1.6M – S$2.5M | S$2.5M – S$4.0M |
| Tanglin / Nassim | S$3,800 – S$6,000 | S$3.5M – S$6.0M | S$6.0M – S$12.0M+ |
| King Albert Park | S$2,000 – S$2,800 | S$1.5M – S$2.2M | S$2.2M – S$3.5M |
Recent resales illustrate this positioning well. Leedon Residence, a large freehold condominium, recorded transactions around S$2,891 psf; Hyll on Holland (freehold) sold via sub-sale at S$2,749 psf; Verdure, another freehold project on Holland Road, reached S$2,063 psf. Conversely, Tanglin Regency, on a 99-year lease starting in 1994, stood out with a sale at S$1,528 psf, while D’Leedon (99-year) traded around S$2,013 psf.
The price gap between freehold and leasehold properties can reach 15 to 25% in certain CCR D9-D11 sub-markets, such as District 10.
Recent launches also confirm strong demand. Skye at Holland, along Holland Village Way, achieved approximately 99% reservations over the launch weekend in late 2025, at an average price around S$2,953 psf. At the ultra-premium level, boutique addresses like 21 Anderson show resales exceeding S$5,000 psf, particularly for very rare penthouses.
District 9 vs. District 10: A Price Gap That Changes Everything
On the surface, S$3,500 psf for District 9 versus S$3,200 psf for District 10 does not seem like an abysmal difference. Yet, this delta of S$300 psf has a very concrete impact on the total acquisition cost, especially for foreigners subject to a 60% ABSD.
The total cost difference, including the 60% ABSD, between buying a 750 sq ft apartment in District 9 versus District 10 in Singapore.
This leads to a very concrete trade-off for an international investor: District 9 retains the maximum premium in prestige and momentum on new launches, while District 10 offers a slightly lower entry barrier and a long-term defensiveness profile reinforced by an abundance of freehold properties.
In terms of rental yield, the numbers reinforce this dilemma. District 9 posts fairly low gross yields, often between 1.5% and 2.5%, typical of a “trophy” segment. District 10, especially in its more family-oriented sub-markets, tends more toward 2.5%–3.5% gross, which doesn’t turn these properties into cash-flow machines but does make the equation a bit more balanced.
Marina Bay: Financial Showcase and Structural Scarcity
Marina Bay clearly stands apart from District 9 and District 10 due to its mixed office/residential positioning. It is the heart of the modern Central Business District, a financial, tourist, and ultra-premium residential showcase. Housing here is exclusively private condos; no HDB flats dilute the price level.
In 2026, the Marina Bay market shows resale prices generally between S$2,800 and S$3,800 psf for iconic towers like The Sail @ Marina Bay, Marina Bay Residences, or Marina One Residences. Transactions cover a very wide spectrum in absolute value, from about S$2.2 million to over S$20 million depending on unit type and view.
Table 4 – 2026 Price Benchmarks at Marina Bay (Condominiums)
| Type and Typical Size | Indicative Average PSF 2026 | Typical Price Range |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom (753–1,216 sq ft) | ~S$2,360 – S$2,420 | ~S$1.7M – S$2.95M |
| 2–3 Bedrooms (1,130–1,981 sq ft) | ~S$2,230 – S$3,110 | ~S$2.27M – S$8.0M |
| 4 Bedrooms / Penthouse (2,368+ sq ft) | ~S$2,740 – S$4,531 | ~S$6.28M – S$20M+ |
Data for Marina Bay Residences, a tower completed in 2010 (99-year lease, 428 units), provides a very precise snapshot. 1-bedroom units trade between S$1.7M and S$1.95M, with average PSF around S$2,422. 2-bedroom units range from S$2.27M to S$3.98M, 3-bedroom units from S$3.78M to S$8.48M, and 4-bedroom units from S$6.28M to S$18M, with PSF potentially climbing above S$4,500 depending on floor and orientation.
Gross rental yield at Marina Bay is slightly higher than Orchard’s, with ranges of 2.5% to 3.5%. A 2-bedroom unit purchased around S$3M can generate monthly rent of S$6,500 to S$8,000, or 2.6% to 3.2% gross. However, these figures are compressed by the very high purchase prices typical of the CCR: in rental dollars, Marina Bay is very generous, but as a yield percentage, it remains modest.
The key long-term argument lies elsewhere. Marina Bay suffers from structural scarcity: the area was primarily designed as a commercial and civic hub, and residential use is only permitted on a few “white sites” released by the state. New opportunities therefore come in drips and drabs, and each significant launch tends to set new highs.
Two Sub-Markets at Marina Bay: Waterfront and Anson/Shenton
The broader District 1/2 area can be schematized into two segments for 2026:
Comparison of CBD residential zones: Strict Waterfront and Shenton Way / Anson Road corridor
Marina One and Marina Gardens Crescent. Indicative prices of S$4,500 to over S$7,000 psf for future deliveries, especially on high floors with unobstructed bay views.
More accessible sector. Key project: Newport Residences (integrated mixed-use development). Range of S$2,800 to S$3,500 psf. Conversions of office towers into residences: additional stock around S$3,000–S$3,800 psf.
Table 5 – Indicative 2026 Ranges District 1–2 (Marina / Shenton Area)
| Sub-Zone | Indicative PSF 2026 | Profile |
|---|---|---|
| Marina Bay Waterfront (Marina One, future Marina Gardens Crescent) | S$4,500 – S$7,000+ | Ultra-prime, direct bay views, extreme scarcity |
| Shenton Way / Anson Road (Newport Residences, conversions) | S$2,800 – S$3,800 | Prime “CBD-core” more accessible, strong rental demand |
The key price determinants are classic for a skyline: floor (premium above the 30th), orientation (bay view vs. secondary streets, with an estimated premium of 15–25%), size (smaller units often have higher PSF), and integration into a mixed-use concept (residence + hotel + retail, which adds a layer of convenience valued by executive tenants).
In terms of yield, Marina Bay proves slightly more generous than District 9: across District 1, residential yields generally range between 2.5% and 3.5%, slightly above the 1.5–2.5% range for Orchard, thanks to high rents driven by expatriate demand from the financial sector.
Sentosa Cove: Luxury Enclave in Correction, but with Fixed Supply
Sentosa Cove officially belongs to the CCR (District 4), but its market behavior differs significantly from that of mainland central districts. It is a highly specialized beachfront micro-market, almost entirely lifestyle-oriented, where the ability for foreigners to buy landed property (subject to Singapore Land Authority approval) long fueled spectacular rises.
In recent years, the trend has however reversed. URA data shows a significant decline in prices from the 2013–2023 peaks.
Non-Landed: Prices Still Down from the Peak
For condos, the average price 2025–2026 stands around S$1,700–S$1,800 psf, well below the highs of around S$2,125 psf reached in 2023. The cumulative decline is approximately 18–19% over the period. Over the first nine months of 2025, non-landed PSF was around S$1,728; updated analyses in May 2026 suggest a slight recovery to around S$1,855 psf, representing a one-time growth of 12.6% on a small sample, but in a context of low volumes.
This range represents typical transactions for a 3-bedroom apartment of 1,600 to 1,900 sq ft, varying by floor and view.
Landed: Villas in Price Retreat, Ticket Still Colossal
For landed properties, the correction is also marked. Land prices have slipped from about S$2,210 psf in 2023 to S$1,842 psf in 2025, a decline of about 13%. Meanwhile, listings continue to show much higher expectations, in the range of S$2,300 to S$2,850 psf for detached bungalows, revealing a gap between sellers and the actual market.
The price structure for houses in 2026 can be summarized as follows.
Table 6 – Sentosa Cove 2026: Price Benchmarks for Villas
| Type of Landed at Sentosa Cove | Indicative Land PSF | Typical Value Range |
|---|---|---|
| Waterfront Bungalows | ~S$1,800 – S$2,400 psf (realized), listings sometimes >S$2,700 psf | ~S$20M – S$40M+ depending on size and berthing |
| Non-waterfront Bungalows / Semi-detached | ~S$1,800 – S$2,200 psf | ~S$8M – S$18M |
| Cluster Terraces | ~S$1,800 psf (order of magnitude) | ~S$4M – S$8M |
Concrete listing examples further illustrate this diversity: bungalows on 7,400 to 10,100 sq ft of land ranging from S$14.8M to over S$30M, villas on Paradise Island or Sandy Island around S$2,100–S$2,800 psf, houses on Cove Drive or Cape Royale well above S$2,000 psf.
Rental Yields: Higher Than the CCR Average, but Still Compressed
On the rental front, Sentosa paradoxically offers superior yields compared to Orchard or Marina Bay. Non-landed condos have seen their gross yields rise from about 2.8% in 2020 to around 3.3% in 2024, helped by lower purchase prices and a relatively resilient rental market. Recent analyses describe a gross yield of 2.5–3.5% on canals and waterfronts, with peaks around 4.0% on certain segments.
Gross yields in the Sentosa district can reach 3.5%, a level above the CCR average of between 1.5% and 2.5%.
A Market Under Pressure, but Structurally Scarce
The flip side of this rise in yields is a painful resale market. In 2024, approximately 59% of transactions (landed and non-landed) resulted in a loss for the seller; this rate rose to nearly 66% in 2025. Resale prices are declining, holding periods are lengthening, and the increase in ABSD to 60% for foreigners since April 2023 weighs heavily.
Sentosa Cove is a gated enclave with a limited supply of about 2,160 units, including more than 1,700 private apartments. No new residential site is planned in the URA 2019 Master Plan or Government Land Sales. Most 99-year leases, dating from 2005-2007, will have residual terms of about 79 years in 2026, introducing a lease decay discount into investor models.
The investment thesis therefore rests more on the absolute scarcity of waterfront villas accessible to foreigners, and on the transformation potential of the Greater Southern Waterfront, a massive redevelopment project of the industrial quays from Pasir Panjang to Marina East. Sentosa lies at the heart of this future extended waterfront, which could, over time, enhance its status in Singapore’s residential landscape, provided the tax policy toward foreigners does not durably block demand.
Global Comparison: District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, Sentosa
For an overall view, we can juxtapose the average price levels and typical 2026 gross yields for these four flagship areas, keeping in mind that these are averages or representative ranges rather than absolute values applicable to every project.
Table 7 – 2026 Comparative Summary
| Area | Status | Average PSF / Key Range 2026 | Indicative Gross Rental Yield | Buyer / Investor Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District 9 (Orchard / River Valley, Scotts, Leonie) | CCR Prime | Average ~S$3,500 psf; sub-zones between S$2,600 and S$5,500 psf | ~1.5% – 2.5% | Ultra-HNW locals and foreigners, “trophy” buyers, family offices |
| District 10 (Bukit Timah, Holland, Tanglin, Nassim) | CCR Prime | Average ~S$3,200 psf; sub-zones between S$2,000 and S$6,000 psf | ~2.5% – 3.5% | Affluent families, freehold school hunters, long-term investors |
| Marina Bay (District 1 waterfront) | CCR Financial | Resale ~S$2,800 – S$3,800 psf; future waterfront new $4,500 – $7,000+ psf | ~2.5% – 3.5% | Investors targeting C-suite tenants, finance expats, mix residence/investment |
| Sentosa Cove (District 4) | CCR Beachfront | Non-landed ~S$1,700 – S$1,800 psf; landed ~S$1,800 – S$2,400 psf (realized), listings well above | ~2.5% – 3.5% (condos), lower on ultra-luxury villas | Very wealthy lifestyle buyers, foreigners seeking landed, investors playing long-term scarcity |
We see that District 9 retains the crown in terms of PSF, but at the cost of some of the lowest yields in the city. District 10 offers a slight PSF discount for a location and tenure quality that are often more defensive. Marina Bay provides an interesting compromise between slightly higher yield and global financial prestige, with revaluation potential tied to the scarcity of new sites. Sentosa, finally, is clearly in a digestion phase after past excesses, but its unique combination of waterfront villas and partial openness to foreigners sets it apart from any other Singaporean area.
Impact of Cooling Measures and ABSD on These Districts
No serious analysis of the Singapore high-end market can ignore the central role of cooling measures and notably the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty. Since April 2023, the regime has been particularly harsh for non-residents: ABSD was raised to 60% of the purchase price for foreigners, regardless of property ranking. For Singapore citizens, the rate is 0% for the first home, 20% for the second, and 30% for the third and beyond; for permanent residents, 5% for the first, 30% for subsequent ones.
This surcharge imposes a holding horizon of 10 to 12 years to make the investment worthwhile due to the high tax cost. It redirects foreign demand toward cheaper products (in PSF or overall value), reducing pressure on speculative markets and favoring districts with a better yield/risk ratio.
In this context, District 9 and Marina Bay remain the most exposed to volatility in high-end foreign demand, even if the base of wealthy local clients and new permanent residents maintains a comfortable market depth. District 10 benefits more from a solid domestic base (owner-occupier families, school proximity seekers), and Sentosa, highly dependent on foreigners, has particularly suffered from this tightening, as evidenced by the rise in loss-making resales and price declines of 13 to 19% from the last peaks.
How to Read These Figures as an Investor in 2026?
The 2026 situation is nothing like a euphoric bubble. URA data points toward contained overall growth (on the order of 3–5% expected for the year for most private segments), transaction volumes down about 40% in some quarters, and a rather “balanced” market in most prime districts.
This means an investor or owner-occupier must think more in terms of market fundamentals and risk calibration than bet on explosive short-term appreciation. Within this framework, the four studied areas position themselves in fairly distinct ways.
For District 9, the key question is whether you are willing to pay the full Orchard premium, with compressed yields and a marked gap between new and resale. The most rational strategy often involves targeting well-located resales in freehold projects capable of holding the top end of the range (3,200–3,800 psf) even during a slowdown, rather than rushing into new launches pushed beyond S$3,500–4,000 psf.
For District 10, the hierarchy revolves around three axes: the Bukit Timah school belt, the Holland Village hub with its young and vibrant profile, and the ultra-high-end Tanglin/Nassim area. The savvy investor will seek to exploit the relative discount versus District 9, while capitalizing on the freehold premium that has proven critical for value retention over the past decade. URA data also shows that, over ten years, median new freehold prices have risen over 50% in District 10, while leasehold projects, starting from lower levels, have seen even more spectacular percentage increases, with the risk of lease erosion weighing on the long term.
With new supply being extremely scarce in districts 1 and 2, each new waterfront project (such as Marina Gardens Crescent) will position itself well above current prices, sometimes between S$4,000 and S$5,500 psf, or even more for top floors. This dynamic creates an ascending price ladder that supports the resale values of existing towers, despite occasional market corrections.
Finally, for Sentosa Cove, the 2026 window looks more like a contrarian entry point than a cycle peak. Prices have fallen while the rest of the city continued to rise, resale losses have multiplied, and the 60% ABSD has clearly restrained international appetite. At the same time, the island retains a fixed stock of waterfront villas and beachfront condos, no new residential sites are in the pipeline, and the future transformation of the southern coastline attracts interest. For an investor capable of taking a very long-term view and accepting lower liquidity, Sentosa can thus be conceived as a bet on ultimate scarcity, rather than a hunt for immediate yield.
Conclusion: Four Markets, Four Logics, One Singaporean Framework
Real Estate Prices in Singapore in 2026: Comparative Table District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, Sentosa points to a far more nuanced reality than simply observing stratospheric PSF figures. District 9 concentrates the strongest address premium, but at the cost of extreme yield compression and new launches always more expensive than resale. District 10 offers a more “family and freehold” variant, with a PSF gap that significantly transforms the final bill, especially for foreigners subject to 60% ABSD.
Marina Bay illustrates the CCR model: high rents, moderate gross yields, supply scarcity, and correlation with finance. Sentosa is a gated beachfront enclave with limited stock, corrected prices, and rental yields higher than Orchard’s.
In all cases, the backdrop remains that of a market broadly rising, supported by strict regulatory oversight, structural land scarcity, and an economy that authorities strive to keep on a moderate but stable growth path. For the investor thinking beyond the short term, the question is therefore not so much whether District 9, District 10, Marina Bay, or Sentosa will rise, but to specify what mix of prestige, yield, liquidity, and political risk they are willing to accept within Singapore’s Core Central Region.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
