Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
The Serbian consumer market is undergoing significant transformation. Driven by a steady increase in purchasing power, the rise of e-commerce, and a more structured retail offering, it remains marked by significant tensions: recent inflation, the perception of prices being “too high” relative to living standards, territorial inequalities, and an aging population. In this contrasting landscape, households are making increasingly nuanced trade-offs between price, promotions, product origin, and perceived quality, while retail and e-commerce players engage in intense competition to capture a demand that is both cautious and highly connected.
A Market Driven by Household Consumption
Private consumption plays a central role in the Serbian economy. It accounted for slightly more than two-thirds of GDP and recent data shows a rather solid dynamic. Household expenditures reached RSD 1,188,601.30 million in Q2 2025, a record high, compared to an average of RSD 839,315.14 million since the mid-1990s. Projections indicate further increases, with anticipated expenditures around RSD 1,248,776 million in 2026 and RSD 1,292,483 million in 2027.
Average net salary in Serbian dinars for the first nine months of 2025, equivalent to nearly 917 euros.
However, the country is emerging from a violent inflationary shock. The consumer price index briefly peaked at over 16% in 2023, and food inflation exceeded 25% year-on-year at the height of the crisis. Even though inflation fell below 3% by the end of 2025, the episode has had a lasting impact on consumer behavior.
Spending Structure: Food at the Heart of the Budget
Serbia remains a country where food weighs heavily on household budgets. Even before the price surge, in 2019, average monthly spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages reached 22,977 dinars, accounting for over one-third of total consumption (34.2%). Housing and utilities represented 16.7% at the time. More recent data confirms the weight of food: a shopper survey shows that an average Serbian household spends RSD 37,501 per month on food, household products, and personal hygiene. The increase is significant (+13% year-on-year) and, importantly, more than half of this amount (RSD 19,148, or 51%) is dedicated to fresh products.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages represent 31% of the consumer price index basket, making it the most important category, ahead of housing (14%) and transport (12%). Consequently, any variation in food prices has an immediate and significant impact on households’ perception of inflation.
The 2023‑2025 shock illustrates this sensitivity. Poor weather conditions caused fruit prices to soar: year-on-year, apples (+51%), raspberries (+50%), apricots (+70%), peaches (+87%), and even cherries (+205%) saw spectacular increases, pushing inflation upward and fueling consumer discontent, already faced with a general rise in the cost of living.
Cautious Consumers Regaining Confidence
Despite this tense context, household confidence indicators have recovered after the peak of concern. The confidence index remains in negative territory (around -5 points in summer 2025, compared to a low of -22.7 points in 2014) but is gradually improving. Households remain generally cautious but are no longer in the “survival” mindset that prevailed at the height of inflation.
The Food Budget as a Social Barometer
The allocation of the food budget illustrates this mix of caution and a return to a form of normalization. The 2024 NielsenIQ survey shows that households continue to monitor prices, but some extreme restriction strategies are receding. Nearly half of consumers say they buy fewer “luxury” products, while 37% indicate they prioritize items on promotion. However, the share of these behaviors has decreased compared to the previous year, a sign that households feel a little less cornered.
Revealingly, Serbians remain particularly attentive to the prices of essential staples like dairy products, bakery items, fruits, and vegetables, but show less vigilance regarding categories considered non-essential, such as baby food or plant-based milks. In other words, they negotiate on the superfluous, not the essential.
Strict Planning… but Impulse Purchases
Serbians plan their shopping a lot, without giving up on impulse purchases. Thus, 71% prepare a list before going to the store, but 69% also buy products not on the list. The typical consumer therefore sets a budgetary framework, which they then allow themselves to exceed, especially when they come across promotions they deem “too good to pass up.”
38% of the sales value of fast-moving consumer goods comes from promotional sales, a regional record.
The Decisive Importance of Freshness
While price matters, perceived quality – particularly freshness – remains the decisive criterion for choosing a store. Three categories dominate: fresh fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, and dairy products. More than one in two consumers is willing to change their route to shop at an outlet known for its fruits and vegetables, and 55% would be willing to go out of their way to buy higher-quality meat.
This demand for freshness partly explains why fresh product expenditures absorb more than half of an average household’s food budget. It is also at the heart of competition between retailers: the battle is less about the price of a pack of cookies and more about the perceived quality of the produce section or the butcher counter.
A Highly Connected Country Shifting to Digital
Digitally, Serbia presents a paradoxical profile: highly advanced infrastructure and usage, but advertising expenditures and e-commerce still below their potential.
A Massively Online Population
With an internet penetration rate exceeding 90% and more than 8.4 million active mobile connections for a population of about 6.6 to 6.7 million inhabitants, the country has more SIM cards than residents. The vast majority of these connections are broadband (3G, 4G, or 5G). Median download speeds, close to 70 Mbps on mobile and over 90 Mbps on fixed broadband, place the country in the upper average for the region.
Social media is omnipresent: approximately 4.8 to 5 million active social identities, representing more than 70% of the population. YouTube reaches over seven out of ten Serbians, Facebook and Instagram comfortably exceed 3 million users, while TikTok is growing strongly, especially among the younger generation. In total, nearly 80% of internet users use at least one social platform.
Table – Key Digital Indicators
| Indicator | Approximate Value 2025 |
|---|---|
| Total Population | 6.6–6.7 million |
| Active Mobile Connections | 8.45 million |
| Internet Penetration (Population) | 90–92% |
| Social Media Users | ~4.8–5 million |
| Share of Population on Social Media | ~70–72% |
E-commerce Boom… on a Still Modest Base
Online commerce has experienced rapid growth, accelerated by the pandemic. Between March and July 2020, e-commerce activity simply doubled compared to the previous year. Food deliveries increased by 200%, textile sales nearly doubled, and purchases of computers and technical devices rose by 50%. In 2021, approximately 70% of the population made at least one online purchase, a rate that places Serbia well ahead of the Western Balkans, although still below levels observed in Western Europe.
The e-commerce market reached approximately $852 million in 2024, after a strong recovery.
Usage is spreading rapidly: more than 3.3 million online consumers in 2020, with forecasts of 4.3 million by 2027, representing nearly two-thirds of internet users. Growth is particularly clear among the most active 16‑34 age group: nearly 40% of 16‑24 year-olds and 25‑34 year-olds report having made three to five online purchases in the last three months. Seniors remain less involved, but their adoption is increasing.
Table – E-commerce Dynamics in Serbia
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue 2022 | $710.7M |
| Revenue 2024 (approx.) | $852M |
| Forecast 2027 | $1.65B |
| E-commerce Customers 2020 | 3.3M |
| E-commerce Customers Forecast 2027 | 4.36M |
| Share of Internet Users as E-shoppers 2023 | ~57% |
| Forecast Share 2027 | ~62.5% |
The most purchased online categories confirm the anchoring of digital in daily habits: clothing and sports articles lead (nearly 30% of buyers), followed by electronic equipment (25%), toys, media, furniture, and food. Some data shows that over 60% of consumers prefer to buy their electronic gadgets online, taking advantage of a wider offer and easier price comparisons.
Payments: Cash is Still King, but Cards are Gaining Ground
On the payments front, Serbia illustrates a gradual transition. Historically, cash on delivery dominates online transactions, in line with Central and Eastern European preferences. But the trend is clearly towards the growing importance of cards and digital solutions.
More than half of e-commerce transactions are now settled by card (credit or debit), with an increase of nearly 18% in one year. Mobile payments, although still a minority, already constitute a significant share. Simultaneously, the use of online and mobile banking is exploding: the number of mobile banking users surged by over 30% in 2021, and online card or e-money payment transactions increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
This rapid formalization of payments supports both e-commerce growth and the fight against the informal economy, one of the stated goals of the government, which is multiplying initiatives to encourage cashless payments.
A Highly Concentrated Retail Landscape Under Fire
Modern retail has become considerably denser in recent years. Shopping malls, retail parks, supermarkets, discounters, and convenience chains now structure the urban landscape, particularly in Belgrade, which concentrates nearly half of the country’s modern retail space.
Very Powerful Retail Champions
The market is dominated by a few major groups. Delhaize Serbia (Maxi banner and associated formats) remains the leader with several hundred stores and revenue exceeding one billion euros. Lidl, Mercator/Idea, Univerexport, DIS, and Aman complete the leading pack. Alone, the top three (Delhaize, Lidl, Mercator) represented about three-quarters of the sector’s revenue in 2023, with average gross margins well above the European average (nearly 27% compared to just over 20% in Europe).
Table – 2023 Revenues of Major Retailers
| Retailer | Revenue (approx.) | Net Profit (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Delhaize Serbia | €1.3B | >€66M |
| Lidl Srbija | €886M | €15M |
| Mercator S / Idea | €871M | €14M |
| Univerexport | €322M | €7M |
| DIS | €234M | €4M |
| Aman | €274M | €9M |
This concentration is raising growing questions, especially since sector margins surged in a context of high inflation. A study showed that Serbian retail gross margins on food products exceeded, on average, those of retailers in many neighboring countries. For a portion of the population, this fuels the feeling that large chains may have taken advantage of inflation to increase their profits at the expense of consumers.
Consumer Boycotts and Price-Fixing Investigation
This discontent has translated into spectacular actions. Boycott movements organized on social media called on citizens to avoid major chains for several days. During a first boycott day, the number of receipts issued reportedly dropped by 20 to 25% compared to the day before, and sector revenue by nearly one-third, representing several million euros in lost revenue.
Competition authorities can open a procedure in case of suspected price-fixing. An investigation can be based on monitoring the prices of around thirty products over several months. The observation of very close price alignments, even during promotional periods, can signal a lack of effective competition and be enough to trigger action against major retailers.
For many analysts, the response should not be through generalized price controls, deemed ineffective in the long term, but through strengthening competition and greater transparency on price formation (purchase costs, margins, taxation). The boycotts nevertheless sent a clear signal: Serbian consumers are organized, informed, and ready to use their purchasing power as leverage.
A Diversifying Offer: Retail Parks, Discounters, Specialized Stores
Alongside this concentration, the landscape is diversifying. Retail parks, virtually non-existent in 2011, now represent over a third of modern retail space. Discounters, led by Lidl and low-cost players, continue their expansion, benefiting from the price sensitivity of a large part of the population (nearly a quarter of Serbians live below the poverty line).
Medium-sized supermarkets and drugstores are growing, while hypermarkets and small mixed grocery stores are seeing their market share diminish. Households visit an average of three different banners per month, revealing mobility and a search for comparing offers.
The segment of specialized food stores (butchers, greengrocers, fishmongers, etc.) constitutes another growing segment. This segment, coded 4721 in the Serbian nomenclature, has seen its number of enterprises increase by over 30% per year between 2020 and 2025, reaching more than 1,300 structures. These stores rely on quality, proximity, and often an “artisanal” or local dimension to differentiate themselves, benefiting from the renewed interest in fresh and regional products.
Promotions, Private Labels, and Price Trade-offs
Faced with the rising cost of living, promotions have become an essential lever. As mentioned, more than a third of FMCG sales value comes from promotional purchases, a rate higher than in many neighboring countries.
Promotion as the Norm, Not the Exception
In certain key categories (packaged bread, coffee, ready meals, spreadable sweets, toilet paper), more than one in two products is sold on promotion. Retailers compete with discounts and multiply “shock” operations – to the point that, for many consumers, the list price is now just a theoretical reference. Many wait for the coupon or weekly promo to restock.
Promotions have mixed effects. In the short term, they protect the purchasing power of vigilant consumers but can blur price transparency and encourage overconsumption or impulse purchases. In the long term, they risk weakening manufacturers’ margins and increasing pressure on suppliers, especially the smaller ones.
Rising Power of Private Labels
In this context, private label brands (PL) are progressing rapidly, even though their market share (13% in value) remains below that observed in Western Europe. Their double-digit sales growth year-on-year (+13% in value, of which +11% in volume) contrasts with the more modest growth of national brands (+10%, with a mix more driven by price increases).
More than half of consumers systematically compare the prices of major brands with those of private label brands.
For consumers, private labels play a role as an arbiter between price and perceived quality. In an environment where prices are rising faster than wages for part of the population, these products offer an alternative deemed acceptable, even attractive, especially when combined with promotions.
Consumers Marked by Food Ethnocentrism
A prominent feature of the Serbian market is the importance placed on product origin, particularly for food. Academic work conducted in the early 2010s shows a high level of ethnocentrism among Serbian consumers, especially regarding food.
Marked Preference for “Made in Serbia”
Surveys reveal that Serbians clearly prefer local products, which they associate with both better perceived quality, support for the national economy, and, for older and wealthier consumers, an assumed patriotic dimension. The motivation to buy Serbian relies as much on rational factors (freshness, taste, know-how) as on moral ones (supporting domestic producers).
Consumers first prefer local products, then those from Germany and more broadly the European Union. They show, however, distrust towards products originating from certain neighboring countries or China, perceived as less reliable, of lower quality, or associated with political and identity tensions.
Interestingly, openness to other cultures does not seem to reduce this ethnocentrism. One can be both curious about foreign products and attached, even militant, for national products. For foreign brands, this implies working more finely on their local anchoring, partnerships with Serbian players, or highlighting concrete benefits for the country.
Growth of Traditional, Artisanal, and Geographical Indication Products
This sensitivity to origin is reflected in the growing interest in traditional products and those with a geographical indication (GI). A 2021 survey shows that most respondents associate GI products with supporting small producers and developing the local economy. They perceive them as vectors of cultural heritage and are willing to pay more for these specialties, even though many admit to having an imperfect knowledge of the GI system.
Annual frozen sour cherry export capacity of Serbia, illustrating the country’s agri-food potential.
In the case of cheeses, another study shows a pronounced attachment to artisanal cheeses: consumers judge them healthier and of better quality than industrial cheeses, and a majority declares themselves willing to pay more for these products, while demanding more hygiene and traceability guarantees (individual packaging, clear labeling).
For retailers, these trends present a dual challenge: on one hand, structuring local supply chains capable of meeting demand in terms of quality, volume, and sanitary standards; on the other hand, showcasing these products on shelves, possibly via dedicated corners for regional specialties or food craftsmanship.
A Consumer Both Very Social and Sensitive to Marketing
With a social media usage rate exceeding 70% of the population, Serbia is a market particularly receptive to digital campaigns. Online advertising investments, although still modest in absolute value, are progressing at high speed.
Digital Advertising, Social Media, and Influencers
Digital advertising expenditures surpassed the 100 million euro mark in 2023, up more than 25% year-on-year. Social media is one of the most dynamic segments with growth of over 40%: Facebook (Meta), Instagram, and YouTube concentrate most investments, while TikTok is becoming essential for targeting young adults.
Over 80% of Gen Y and Gen Z discover new products via social media.
Regulation, inspired by GDPR and European directives, however imposes a certain transparency: advertising must be clearly distinguished from editorial content and sponsored partnerships must be disclosed, pushing players to professionalize their practices further.
Mobile, the Primary Entry Point
The smartphone has become the central tool for consuming commercial information. In the world of fast-moving consumer goods, mobile applications have surpassed paper flyers as the primary source of information on promotions and new products. Consumers use their apps to compare prices, spot discounts, create their shopping list, and even accumulate loyalty points.
The shift to digital forces retailers to invest in intuitive applications, digitized loyalty programs, and targeted marketing campaigns. For brands, geolocation allows reaching consumers near points of sale, but this requires a fine understanding of local expectations to avoid being perceived as intrusive.
Territorial and Social Inequalities Shaping Demand
Behind the national averages lie strong disparities. Serbia suffers from a high poverty rate (nearly a quarter of the population) and marked income inequalities, with a Gini coefficient above 30. Belgrade concentrates about 40% of the country’s wealth, while the south and east represent only a small share of value creation.
Rural/Urban: Two Serbias of Consumption
More than half the population lives in urban areas, and this is where the most modern offer is concentrated: supermarkets, shopping malls, international banners, delivery platforms. Conversely, a good part of rural areas lacks reliable logistics: only 40% of rural families reportedly have access to reliable and punctual delivery services. Consumption there remains more oriented towards short circuits, local markets, self-production, and small grocery stores.
While the online purchase rate remains globally high in Serbia, it shows significant gaps depending on age and location. People over 55 and inhabitants of the most remote regions buy less online. Conversely, young urbanites are very active buyers, frequently ordering clothing, high-tech products, or meals via delivery services like Glovo or Wolt.
An Aging Population, a Medium-Term Challenge
Serbia is one of the oldest countries in Europe: the median age exceeds 44 years, and more than 23% of the population is over 65. Simultaneously, the country is experiencing continuous demographic decline, linked to low fertility (about 1.5 children per woman) and negative net migration. This evolution has direct consequences on demand structure: increased needs in health, products related to aging (incontinence, specific care, comfort products), and a potential slowdown in growth for certain segments (children’s toys, school supplies, energy drinks, etc.).
The market for hygiene and health products for seniors, particularly adult diapers, is experiencing strong growth, partly supported by public reimbursements. In contrast, sales volume of baby diapers is declining, although their market value is maintained due to a trend towards purchasing higher-end products.
A Regulatory Framework Aligning with European Standards
The Serbian legal environment governing consumption, retail, and e-commerce has significantly strengthened, often with the perspective of alignment with the European Union.
E-commerce, Data Protection, and Consumer Rights
The law on electronic commerce, texts governing electronic documents, digital identification, and personal data protection now constitute a relatively robust foundation. Inspired by the GDPR, the new data protection law imposes explicit consent for commercial prospecting via electronic means and strengthens individuals’ rights over their data.
Consumers benefit from specific rights for distance purchases, including a 14-day withdrawal period, a detailed pre-contractual information obligation, and strict regulation of offer content. Regarding promotions, precise rules apply to sales and discount campaigns: their duration is limited, winter and summer sales periods are determined by law, and the duration of price reduction campaigns is regulated.
This regulatory architecture aims to establish a climate of trust, an indispensable condition for online purchases to become a reflex for population segments still hesitant.
Fight Against Counterfeiting and the Informal Economy
Simultaneously, authorities are conducting an offensive against counterfeiting and illegal online commerce. In one year, nearly 48,000 suspicious ads were screened, about 80,000 advertisements for counterfeit products on social media were removed, and over 800,000 illicit items seized. Customs is also strengthening controls on parcels from foreign platforms to limit undeclared imports or non-compliant products.
The government prohibits the online sale of prescription medications. This measure, both sanitary and economic, aims to protect physical pharmacies and regulate a sensitive market, in response to the rise of pharmaceutical e-commerce.
What Prospects for the Serbian Consumer Market?
Considering all these elements, the Serbian consumer market appears as a field of opportunities, but also of risks, for economic players.
Clearly Identified Growth Drivers
Several structural trends support demand:
– a steady progression of incomes and real purchasing power, despite a starting level still below Western EU standards;
– strong digital diffusion, paving the way for the rise of e-commerce, online services, and targeted advertising;
– sustained demand for fresh, quality, local, or strongly regional identity products, which can be leveraged both on the domestic market and for export;
– the premiumization of certain segments (cosmetics, personal care, premium products, wines, gastronomic specialties) among a consolidating urban middle class.
Major infrastructure projects, the organization of international events, and the development of exporting industrial sectors furthermore contribute to stabilizing employment and supporting disposable income.
Persistent Headwinds: Prices, Inequalities, Demographics
The main challenges, however, remain significant:
The recent memory of inflation limits companies’ ability to raise prices. Demand is segmented by significant territorial and social inequalities, varying notably between Belgrade and small towns in the south. Demographic aging weighs on long-term growth, affecting goods for youth. Finally, distrust towards large chains, perceived as making excessive margins, forces retailers to be more transparent.
For Companies: Establish Local Anchoring, Master Pricing, Invest in Digital
For players looking to position themselves in the Serbian consumer market, several key imperatives clearly emerge from the current landscape.
To succeed in Serbia, it is essential to build credible local anchoring. This involves creating partnerships with Serbian producers, promoting local origin supply chains, and adapting product ranges to national tastes and culinary habits. The Serbian consumer is particularly receptive to messages highlighting positive local impact, such as job creation, support for small businesses, and the preservation of Serbian gastronomic heritage.
Next, the importance of a finely calibrated pricing and promotions policy. In a market very sensitive to discounts, it is crucial to find the balance between promotional attractiveness and margin preservation, avoiding strategies that could be perceived as “opportunistic inflation.”
Finally, the necessity to massively invest in the digital field: high-performing e-commerce sites, robust mobile applications, logistics adapted to urban areas but also to less well-served regions, social media communication in line with local cultural codes, and thoughtful use of influencer marketing.
In this context, the Serbian consumer market appears as an interesting laboratory for transformations sweeping across Central and Eastern Europe: growing power of digital, rediscovery of the local, inflation challenge, increasing demands for transparency and corporate social responsibility. Players who can combine these dimensions, while respecting the country’s specific economic and cultural constraints, will find significant development opportunities in the years to come.
A 62-year-old retiree, with a financial estate exceeding one million euros, well-structured in Europe, wanted to change his tax residence to optimize his tax burden and diversify his investments, while maintaining a link with France. Allocated budget: 10,000 euros for comprehensive support (tax advice, administrative formalities, relocation, and wealth structuring), without forced asset sales.
After analyzing several attractive destinations (Serbia, Greece, Cyprus, Mauritius), the chosen strategy consisted of targeting Serbia for its advantageous taxation on income, absence of wealth tax, a cost of living significantly lower than France (Belgrade clearly cheaper than Paris), and facilitated access to the European market via free trade agreements. The mission included: pre-expatriation tax audit (exit tax or not, tax deferral), obtaining a residence permit via purchase of a primary residence or passive income, detachment from French social security (CNAS/CPAM), transfer of banking residence, plan to break French tax ties (183 days/year outside France, center of economic interests), connection with a local network (lawyer, immigration, French-speaking partners), and comprehensive wealth integration (analysis and restructuring if necessary).
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. We encourage you to consult qualified experts before making any investment, real estate, or expatriation decisions. Although we strive to maintain up-to-date and accurate information, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the proposed content. As investment and expatriation involve risks, we disclaim any liability for potential losses or damages arising from the use of this site. Your use of this site confirms your acceptance of these terms and your understanding of the associated risks.
Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
