Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
With falling interest rates, strong rental demand, and growing pressure on housing supply, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for residential real estate in Southern Europe. Three markets stand out clearly on investors’ radars: Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Behind the postcard images, however, these three countries do not offer the same risk/return profile, nor the same tax or capital appreciation prospects.
By cross-referencing data on prices, rental yields, economic forecasts, and tax regimes, this detailed comparison helps determine the most strategic destination for investing your money in 2026 among three options.
Three markets riding the same wave, but at different speeds
The macro environment clearly favors real estate in these three countries. Interest rates are falling in the eurozone, the European Central Bank has entered an easing cycle, and projections see key rates stabilizing around 2% in 2026. Concretely, this is already translating into lower mortgage rates: around 3.2% for new loans in Spain and 3.5% in Portugal, with the Euribor expected near 1.7% in early 2026. In Italy, banks are working around 3.6% for real estate loans.
Demand is supported by population growth, an increase in single-person households, remote work, and the influx of tourists and expatriates, while the supply of new construction is insufficient compared to the formation of new households, leading to rising rents and prices in all three countries.
But the dynamics are not the same everywhere. Spain is in a phase of clear overheating, Portugal in a period of consolidation after an impressive boom, while Italy stands out with high rental yields in a market that is rising more slowly.
Spain: strong growth, liquid market, supply pressure
Spain has become one of the most dynamic markets in Europe. In 2025, real estate investment there exceeded 18.4 billion euros, up 31% year-on-year, with an outlook for additional growth of 5 to 10% for 2026. On the macro front, GDP growth exceeds 2%, inflation is receding, and domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, is becoming the main driver of the economy.
A market driven by foreigners and scarcity
Foreign buyers are becoming increasingly significant: about 119,000 acquisitions by non-residents in the first ten months of 2025, following a record of over 139,000 purchases in 2024. They account for about 20% of the market, double the share in 2006. On coastal and luxury segments, their weight is even more pronounced, such as on the Costa del Sol or Costa Blanca where they exceed 40 to 50% of transactions.
Over 91% of real estate transactions involve existing homes.
The result is immediately visible in the price figures.
Prices: rapid increase, especially in tight areas
Indices converge: Spain has experienced a marked upward cycle since 2020, accentuated by the tourism recovery, the appetite of international investors, and the lack of supply. In 2025, the national price index rose by about 12.8 to 12.9% year-on-year, with 42 consecutive quarters of growth. Existing homes average around €1,800/m², new builds around €2,700/m², almost 50% more.
Another indicator puts the average apartment at around €3,100/m² in 2026, up 7% year-on-year, after +14.3% in 2025 and +12% in 2024. All sources converge on a national average range of €2,100 to €2,600/m², with very strong regional disparities.
Tourist areas and major cities are driving the increase:
| Spanish area (examples) | Average price 2025–2026 (€/m²) | Estimated recent annual increase |
|---|---|---|
| Madrid (city) | ≈ 4,600 | +17–19% |
| Barcelona (city) | ≈ 4,400 | +11–12% |
| Costa del Sol (Málaga province) | ≈ 3,800–4,000 | +13–15% |
| Costa Blanca (Alicante province) | ≈ 1,800–2,500 | +15–18% |
| Balearic Islands | ≈ 5,100 | +11–16% |
| Canary Islands | ≈ 2,700–3,400 | +12–18% |
In some provinces such as Alicante, Murcia, Valencia, or Madrid, annual increases exceed 15 to 18% in early 2026. Yet, even after this surge, national prices in real terms remain below the peak of the 2007 bubble, which reassures some investors about the risk of overvaluation.
Rental yields: decent to good, especially in mid-sized cities and on the coast
On the rental front, demand is exploding in major cities and along coastlines, with strong pressure on supply. On average, gross residential yields are around 5.4% at the end of 2025, slightly down from over 6% in 2024, as prices rise faster than rents. But this average masks significant contrasts:
In major metropolises like Madrid or Barcelona, gross yields are typically between 3 and 5% due to high purchase prices. In contrast, in many mid-sized cities and certain coastal segments, yields easily reach 6–7%, with peaks above 8% in well-chosen markets like Murcia, Zaragoza, or some peripheral areas of Alicante and Madrid.
The price-to-rent ratio is around 14 to 16 years of rent to amortize the purchase price, which is more favorable than in Italy (18–20 years) or in expensive neighborhoods in Portugal (over 20 years).
Outlook for 2026: further increases, but more moderate
Major market players (banks, real estate portals, research institutes) agree on a continued rise in 2026, but at a less explosive pace than 2024–2025. Most national scenarios range between +3 and +7%, with a consensus around 5–7%. In very tight areas—major metropolises, Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, main costas—projections are more in the 7–10% range.
This trend is driven by a combination of factors: transactions stabilizing at a very high level (over 700,000 sales in 2025, more than in 2007), insufficient new construction, robust economic growth, and an uninterrupted influx of foreign buyers. Organizations such as BBVA, Bankinter, and the Observatorio Inmobiliario all anticipate continued increases, even if the era of widespread +10–12% seems to be coming to an end.
Organizations such as BBVA, Bankinter, and the Observatorio Inmobiliario
For an investor, Spain therefore offers a clear profile: a highly liquid market, decent yields, a strong probability of capital gains, but already tight prices in the most famous “spots,” and a more restrictive regulatory environment for short-term rentals in major cities.
Portugal: targeted yield, market under pressure, very attractive taxation for affordable rentals
Portugal has established itself in a few years as one of the star real estate markets in Europe. Despite the end of some iconic tax regimes (NHR) and the halt of the real estate component of the “Golden Visa,” the market has not turned. On the contrary, prices have surged again, by around 11 to 14% over 2024–2025 nationally, and up to about 20% in 2025 according to some analyses.
Prices: a country cheaper than Spain… except on certain coastlines
Overall, Portugal remains slightly cheaper than Spain, especially outside Lisbon and the Algarve. Over 2024–2025, the national average price is around €2,065/m², with a significant gap between existing (about €1,815/m²) and new builds (around €2,712/m², almost 50% more expensive).
Major cities and coastal regions concentrate a significant portion of the increase, with levels now comparable to many Spanish areas:
| Portuguese market (examples) | Estimated average price (€/m²) | Main comment |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon (city) | ≈ 5,400 (apartments) | Most expensive city, strong supply pressure |
| Porto (city) | ≈ 3,300 | Strong rental demand, market catching up |
| Algarve (coast) | ≈ 3,200 | More expensive than some areas of Costa del Sol |
| Silver Coast | ≈ 2,100–2,200 | Still affordable compared to the south |
| National average (all segments) | ≈ 2,065 | Strong contrast coast / interior |
In the Algarve, some premium micro-markets like Lagos, Vilamoura, Albufeira, or the “Golden Triangle” (Vilamoura, Quinta do Lago, Vale do Lobo) have already reached levels comparable to, or even higher than, highly sought-after Spanish resorts. The logical consequence is a compression of yields in these very popular areas.
Rental yields: very variable, from “average” to “very good” depending on the city
Aggregated studies for 2025–2026 give a mixed picture of Portuguese yields. Several statistical perimeters lead to different figures, but the general idea is clear: the country is not a uniform “El Dorado”; you need to choose your markets carefully.
The average gross return on real estate investments can exceed 7% in mid-sized cities and the interior of the country.
The performance gaps are striking when looking city by city:
| City / Region (Portugal) | Type & size | Estimated gross yield | Estimated net yield | Average purchase price | Average monthly rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coimbra | Studio | ≈ 8.8% | ≈ 6.9% | ≈ €92,000 | ≈ €670 |
| Coimbra | 2BR | ≈ 8.2% | ≈ 6.4% | ≈ €140,000 | ≈ €960 |
| Aveiro | 2BR | ≈ 6.0% | ≈ 4.7% | ≈ €166,000 | ≈ €830 |
| Braga | 2BR | ≈ 5.6% | ≈ 4.4% | ≈ €178,000 | ≈ €830 |
| Lisbon | 2BR | ≈ 4.3% | ≈ 3.3% | ≈ €489,000 | ≈ €1,760 |
| Lagos (Algarve) | 2BR | ≈ 4.2% | ≈ 2.9% | ≈ €367,000 | ≈ €1,290 |
| Funchal (Madeira) | 2BR | ≈ 5.4% | ≈ 4.0% | ≈ €298,000 | ≈ €1,330 |
University cities (Coimbra, Braga) and certain well-positioned mid-sized towns (Aveiro, Vila Nova de Gaia, Setúbal) offer net yields around 5.5 to 6.5% with assured rentals over 9 to 10 months for students. Conversely, central neighborhoods of Lisbon or premium beach destinations in the Algarve sometimes drop to around 3% net due to very high per-square-meter prices.
For short-term rentals, the figures are significantly more attractive. In the Algarve, tourist apartments generate on average about 6.4% gross yield and 5.5% net, with an occupancy rate close to 93%, and up to 98% in the most sought-after micro-markets (Lagos, Albufeira, Vilamoura, Golden Triangle). By combining 5–6% net yield and 3–4% annual price appreciation over five years, some scenarios estimate a total return of 45 to 60%.
Taxation and public policies: a country pushing targeted rental investment
What most differentiates Portugal from the other two countries in 2026 is no longer the “Real Estate Golden Visa” (abolished since 2023), but a very sophisticated arsenal of tax measures designed to stimulate construction and affordable renting.
One billion two hundred million euros are allocated to produce or renovate approximately 26,000 homes by mid-2026.
Several levers directly interest the investor:
A set of measures aimed at promoting the construction and rental of affordably priced housing through significant tax advantages.
Applicable to the construction or renovation of homes intended for sale or affordable rental, for projects under approximately €648,000 or rents capped at €2,300/month.
For the construction of a primary residence, reducing the charge from 23% to 6% subject to cost limits.
Exemptions or reductions in property transfer tax (IMT) and property tax (IMI) for certain affordably priced homes.
From mid-2026, full exemption from personal income tax (IRS) or corporate income tax (IRC) for rents complying with caps.
Concluded with IHRU, providing exemptions from IMT, IMI, AIMI, reduced VAT, and stamp duty advantages for moderate rental projects lasting up to 25 years.
In parallel, nearly 1,800 Urban Rehabilitation Areas (ARU) are recorded in 2026: investing there allows accumulating reduced VAT rates, exemptions from IMI and IMT, and preferential access to certain public funding.
Finally, social measures directly target tenants (gradual increase in the tax deduction on rents paid, rising to €900 per year in 2026 then €1,000 in 2027), which indirectly supports the solvency of rental demand.
For a patient investor willing to engage in rental affordability schemes, Portugal thus becomes a laboratory of pro-investor policies, provided they accept moderate rents and a certain administrative complexity.
Golden Visa and price trajectory: the myth of a turnaround
The removal of real estate from the “Golden Visa” in 2023 and the end of the NHR (Non-Habitual Resident) regime in 2025 raised fears of a sharp market downturn. That has not happened. Despite these changes, the combination of limited supply, falling rates, strong foreign demand, and a broadly stable political framework continued to push prices up, with a jump of about 20% in 2025 according to some studies.
In 2026, most analysts forecast a slowdown to annual increases of 3 to 7% in the tightest markets, but no serious scenario projects a generalized decline. Portugal therefore remains, for now, an expensive market in its hot spots, but still growing.
Italy: yield reigns supreme, sophisticated taxation, and a recovering market
Less discussed than Spain or Portugal, Italy nevertheless presents, in 2026, a very attractive profile for yield-oriented investors, even for high-net-worth individuals seeking a European base with advanced tax engineering.
A market in a recovery phase, driven by falling rates
Italy is gradually emerging from a period of moderate growth, with GDP expected around 0.8–1% in 2026. But in real estate, the signals are clearly green: after a low in 2023 (total return +0.7%), the total performance reached +5.4% in 2025, bringing the ten-year average to 4.4% per year. Notably, the country has never recorded a year of negative total return, as the income effect has systematically cushioned price corrections.
Investment volumes have picked up again: about €12.5 billion in 2025 (+20% year-on-year), with a record final quarter of €4.5 billion, the highest since 2020. Forecasts point to sustained activity in 2026, driven by monetary easing (ECB rates around 2%, inflation at 1.6%) which reduces the cost of debt and sets “waiting” capital in motion.
Prices: moderate increase, gradual tension in major cities
Residential prices are rising steadily but not explosively. The national index increased by nearly 4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, the 24th consecutive quarterly rise. Adjusted for inflation, the real increase is more modest (a little over 2%), but the key point is elsewhere: the market is not falling, selling times are at historic lows, and negotiation margins are shrinking.
In 2025, homes in good condition gained 1.3 to 1.9%, while properties needing renovation increased more. In 2026, forecasts indicate a rise of 1 to 1.5% in major cities, with increases of 2 to 4% in Milan, Rome, and Florence, and 3 to 5% in some secondary cities.
Milan remains the undisputed driver of the high-end market, with prime neighborhoods like Brera peaking at nearly €18,500/m². Rome, Florence, Turin, and Palermo are attracting more and more investors seeking yields higher than those in northern European capitals, without giving up the prospect of gradual capital gains.
Rental yields: one of the best rent-to-price ratios in Europe
It is on yields that Italy clearly stands out. Aggregated data for early 2026 indicates an average gross rental yield of about 7.2–7.3%, sometimes measured up to 8.3% for certain panels, with prices around €1,700–1,800/m². Several evaluations rank this level of profitability as “very good” on a European scale.
In major cities, the figures are telling:
| Italian city | Estimated gross yield | Indicative average price (€/m²) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | ≈ 7.2% (overall) | ≈ 3,280 | 2.5–4% in prime, higher in secondary areas |
| Rome | ≈ 8.1% | ≈ 2,550 | Strong rental demand, massive tourism |
| Naples | ≈ 7.9% | ≈ 2,630 | High potential, especially in certain neighborhoods |
| Secondary cities | Up to 7–9% | 1,500–2,000 | Highly sought after for yield |
In the most upscale neighborhoods of Milan, yields compress to between 2.5 and 4%, but they rise to 4–6% in secondary areas and jump even higher in mid-sized cities (Turin, Palermo, some university or port cities) where rents remain supported and purchase prices are well below Milanese levels.
The price-to-rent ratio is around 18–20 years of rental income to amortize the price, which is slightly less favorable than Spain but significantly better than Northern European metropolises, where this ratio often exceeds 25 years.
A budding paradise for wealthy investors: flat tax at €300,000 and “impatriate” regimes
Beyond gross yield, Italy plays a very specific card: that of particularly advantageous tax engineering for wealthy individuals or mobile professionals who accept to transfer their tax residence to the country.
The neo-residenti regime (Non-Dom, Article 24-bis of the TUIR) allows a taxpayer who has not been an Italian resident for at least 9 of the last 10 years to move to Italy and replace progressive taxation on worldwide income with a flat tax on foreign-source income.
– as of 2026, this amount is set at €300,000 per year for the main taxpayer, regardless of the amount of their foreign income (whether they earn €500,000 or €50 million);
– the regime can be extended to certain family members (spouse, children, parents, siblings) for an additional tax of €50,000 per person per year;
– the maximum duration is 15 years, non-renewable, with tacit renewal each year as long as the taxpayer remains a resident and pays the flat tax;
– Italian-source income remains taxed under the progressive rate (23% up to €28,000, 33% between €28,001 and €50,000, 43% above, plus regional and municipal surcharges).
This scheme, sometimes referred to as the “CR7 rule” in reference to Cristiano Ronaldo, also exempts new residents from the obligations of detailed declaration of their foreign assets, as well as from wealth taxes on foreign real estate or foreign financial assets, and from Italian inheritance tax on assets located outside Italy. In 2026, the amount of the flat tax was raised from €200,000 to €300,000, and the contribution per family member doubled (from €25,000 to €50,000), but residents who entered the regime before the end of 2025 remain “frozen” at the old rate for the entire duration of their 15 years.
In parallel, other regimes target different profiles:
Workers moving to Italy benefit from an “impatriati” regime with a 50% exemption on employment income for five years (capped at €600,000/year), increased if there are dependent children. Retirees and professionals settling in the South can obtain a tax reduction of up to 90%. Finally, certain productivity bonuses up to €5,000 benefit from a reduced tax rate of 1% in 2026-2027.
For an international investor with a substantial portfolio, Italy therefore offers a double advantage: real estate yields higher than the European average and the possibility to very strongly optimize the taxation of their foreign income through a simple change of tax residence.
Short-term rental regulations: a tightening to factor into calculations
In 2026, Italian regulations are tightening on tourist rentals, especially for multi-property investors. The “cedolare secca” regime (flat tax on rental income) is now structured as follows:
– a reduced rate of 21% applies to income from short-term rentals of a single property;
– for a second property in short-term rental, the rate rises to 26%;
– from the third property dedicated to seasonal rental, the activity is presumed professional: a VAT number is required, income is taxed at progressive rates, and the benefit of the cedolare secca is lost.
The threshold for transitioning to “business activity” has been lowered over successive reforms (it was once possible to rent up to five properties without being considered a professional). For an investor targeting a large portfolio of short-term apartments, this change is crucial: beyond two units, Italy becomes far less attractive tax-wise in this segment.
On the other hand, for long-term rental strategies or for one or two properties in short-term rental, the country retains a clear advantage in terms of gross yields.
Comparing Spain, Portugal, and Italy: three very different profiles
In 2026, the trio Spain–Portugal–Italy illustrates three quite distinct ways of “doing real estate” in Southern Europe. To navigate this, it is useful to summarize some key indicators.
Prices, yield, and capital appreciation horizon
We can summarize the orders of magnitude as follows:
| Country | Indicative average prices (€/m²) | Approximate average gross yield | Expected capital appreciation horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ≈ 2,100–2,600 (wide coastal variations) | ≈ 5–6% (up to 7–8% locally) | +5–7%/yr nationally, 7–10% in hotspots |
| Portugal | ≈ 2,000–2,100 (existing) / 2,700 (new) | ≈ 4–5% (up to 7–8% targeted) | +3–7%/yr in tight areas |
| Italy | ≈ 1,700–1,800 (national) | ≈ 7–8% (3–5% in very prime) | +1–3%/yr on average, more in metropolises |
These figures clearly show the positioning:
– Spain combines decent yields, a very liquid market, and still dynamic revaluation potential, especially on the Mediterranean coasts and major cities;
– Portugal offers a slightly lower average yield in its star markets, but very high-performing niches in university cities or certain mid-sized centers, with a particularly attractive tax environment for affordable rental and renovation;
– Italy dominates the gross yield ranking, but with slower price appreciation, making it a more interesting market for cash-flow strategies rather than pure speculation on capital gains.
Tax and regulatory environment
The three countries are multiplying measures, but with different logics.
In Spain, taxation is relatively standard:
– non-resident tax at 24%;
– capital gains tax between 19 and 26%;
– property transfer tax (ITP) fairly high and variable depending on the autonomous community;
– sometimes restrictive environment for short-term rentals in major cities (quotas, licenses, limitations in certain neighborhoods);
– uncertainty related to a proposed deterrent tax on purchases by non-EU residents (proposal for a 100% surcharge still under debate), which could accentuate the difference in treatment between new (exempt) and existing homes.
Portugal, for its part, has abolished the real estate route of its Golden Visa and closed its NHR regime, but now plays on other levers:
For affordable housing, benefit from reduced VAT at 6%, exemptions or reductions in IMT, IMI, AIMI and stamp duty (ARU, RSAA, CIA), a flat tax of 28% on non-resident rents largely neutralizable via IRS/IRC, and an exemption from capital gains on primary residence reinvested in moderate rental.
Italy stands out with very targeted measures:
– global flat tax of €300,000/year for wealthy new residents on their foreign income, plus €50,000/year per family member;
– “impatriati” regime for workers, with a 50% exemption on income for five years;
– potential reduction of up to 90% in tax for retirees settling in the South;
– flat tax on rentals (cedolare secca) at 21% on one short-term rental property, 26% on a second, then switching to professional taxation beyond.
For an international wealth investor, Italy is by far the most tax-attractive provided they accept becoming a resident. For a non-resident investor, Portugal offers the most interesting levers within the specific framework of affordable rental and urban renovation. Spain, for its part, relies more on the depth of its market and its price dynamics than on “exceptional” tax regimes.
Which investor profile for which country in 2026?
Beyond the numbers, the choice between Spain, Portugal, and Italy in 2026 depends mainly on the profile and objectives of the investor.
To maximize rental cash flow: Italy wins (and some Portuguese niches)
An investor primarily seeking high gross rental yield, without necessarily aiming for a price explosion, will find Italy a very competitive playground. Yields of 7–8% on well-located apartments in secondary or university cities, with a deep domestic market and stable rental demand, remain hard to match in Western Europe.
Portugal can compete in a few niches — Coimbra, Braga, certain districts of Porto or mid-sized towns in the North — but Italy offers this high profitability more broadly, especially if one avoids Milan’s hyper-centers.
For an individual investor willing to move to Italy and take advantage of the Non-Dom regime, the trade-off becomes even more favorable: optimizing taxation on foreign income while exploiting a rental portfolio offering 7–8% gross yield is a rare scenario on a European scale.
For a mix of yield + capital appreciation and high liquidity: Spain remains the benchmark
Spain stands out as the logical choice for those seeking a balanced mix of yield, liquidity, and revaluation potential. The country combines:
Over 700,000 transactions per year, a record since 2007, reflecting an extremely liquid real estate market.
For an investor who prioritizes potential resale in the medium term, the depth of the Spanish market and its ability to liquidate a property quickly, even in volatile periods, are very strong arguments. It is also the market offering the widest range of strategies: second home, long-term rental, seasonal rental, building conversion, etc.
For a bet on quality of life, stability, and rental tax niches: Portugal in a good position
Portugal, finally, remains a top-tier choice for the investor willing to accept sometimes slightly lower yields than Spain or Italy in exchange for:
This country benefits from great political stability, a highly sought-after quality of life (safety, climate, modestly sized cities, good English proficiency), and a tax and regulatory framework very favorable to urban renovation, energy improvement, and affordable rental.
Yield niches are not lacking, but they are often located outside already saturated markets (Lisbon hyper-center, premium Algarve beach resorts). University cities, dynamic secondary centers, and well-chosen ARUs offer attractive combinations of reasonable entry prices, gross yields above 6%, and massive tax incentives (reduced VAT, IMI/IMT exemptions, reduced taxation on rents).
For a long-term investor focused on wealth preservation and inflation protection, combining a net yield of 3–5% with appreciation of 3–4% per year offers an annual “total return” close to 10–12%, in a country perceived as very safe.
In conclusion: 2026, the year of fine-tuning arbitrage
Between Spain, Portugal, and Italy, there is no “best” absolute market in 2026, but three highly differentiated offerings:
Analysis of the key strengths of three Iberian and Italian markets for the savvy investor
Dominant macroeconomic momentum, strength of domestic demand, capacity to absorb considerable volumes, and capital appreciation potential far from exhausted.
A testing ground for pro-housing policies: the investor engaged in accessible rental and renovation benefits from tax advantages and above-average yields.
One of the most attractive rent-to-price ratios in Europe, combined with tax regimes designed to attract capital and high incomes.
At a time when rates are normalizing, inflation is calming, and real estate is regaining its full status as a safe haven, choosing between these three markets essentially comes down to choosing your risk/return profile and your holding horizon. For the investor who knows exactly what they are looking for—immediate cash flow, potential capital gains, tax optimization, or simply a sunny refuge—the year 2026 offers, in each of these countries, windows of opportunity that would be hard to find in the major metropolises of Northern Europe.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
