Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
In a Globalized World, Geopolitical Events Can Have Unexpected Repercussions
Geopolitical events can have unforeseen impacts on distant markets, and the real estate sector in Morocco is not immune to these influences. The war in Ukraine, beyond its devastating consequences for the region, has generated economic waves that reach the shores of the Moroccan Kingdom.
From fluctuations in construction material prices to shifts in foreign investment, the dynamics of the Moroccan real estate market have been disrupted by a conflict unfolding thousands of miles away.
In this article, we explore how the war in Ukraine has indirectly shaped the Moroccan real estate landscape, revealing the complexities of a sector in constant evolution.
Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine on the Moroccan Real Estate Market
The war in Ukraine has generated significant repercussions on the global economy, also affecting the Moroccan real estate market. This conflict, the largest on European soil since World War II, has created a climate of economic uncertainty that influences foreign investment and the dynamics of the real estate sector in Morocco.
Economic relations between Morocco and Europe have experienced notable disruptions since the start of the conflict. Economic sanctions imposed on Russia have led to a reorientation of trade flows, indirectly impacting Morocco, which maintains close ties with several European countries. This situation has resulted in increased caution among European investors, traditionally active in Moroccan real estate.
Foreign investors, particularly Europeans, are showing growing reluctance to engage in real estate projects in Morocco amid this global instability. This hesitation translates into a slowdown in transactions and contributes to the crisis the sector has been facing since 2018, already weakened by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
| Impact Factors | Consequences on Moroccan Real Estate |
|---|---|
| Geopolitical uncertainty | Decreased investor confidence |
| Economic sanctions | Disruption of supply chains |
| Global inflation | Rise in construction costs |
| Energy crisis | Increase in operational expenses |
The energy market, heavily disrupted by the conflict, is another major influencing factor. The war blocks the supply of many essential raw materials for construction, notably cement and concrete. This situation leads to an increase in construction costs, which is reflected in real estate prices in Morocco, exacerbating the issue of housing affordability.
According to some observers of the Moroccan market, a significant price correction would be necessary to revitalize the sector, with recommended decreases between 15% and 25%. This prospect of price correction comes in a context where real estate demand is experiencing a notable decline, a phenomenon amplified by uncertainties linked to the Ukrainian conflict.
Potential migratory waves resulting from the conflict could also influence the Moroccan real estate market. If the country becomes a destination for people fleeing conflict zones or European economic difficulties, this could create additional pressure on certain market segments, particularly in urban and tourist areas.
- Decline in real estate demand
- Weakening of household purchasing power
- Reluctance of foreign investors
- Disruption of supply chains for construction materials
May 1, 2025, marked a turning point for the real estate sector, reflecting the evolution of a market seeking new balances in the face of geopolitical challenges. The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with analyses attempting to anticipate price trends, transactional patterns, and overall economic impacts on the Moroccan real estate sector.
The conflict in Ukraine has created an uncertain global economic context, potentially discouraging foreign investors from engaging in real estate projects in Morocco.
Good to know:
The war in Ukraine indirectly influences the Moroccan real estate market by altering economic and political relations with European countries, notably through economic sanctions and a reorientation of trade exchanges. Foreign investments, particularly European ones, crucial for the Moroccan real estate sector, could be affected by regional economic instability. Simultaneously, fluctuations in the energy market, due to changes in energy supply caused by the conflict, risk increasing construction costs and sale prices. Finally, potential migratory waves may intensify real estate demand, with an influx of new residents seeking refuge, adding pressure on housing supply and affordability.
Influence of International Crises on Real Estate Investment in Morocco
The Moroccan real estate sector is going through a difficult period, marked by a persistent crisis since 2018 that has significantly worsened following several international factors. This situation affects a dynamic that was once thriving in the country.
The War in Ukraine and Its Repercussions on the Moroccan Real Estate Market
The war in Ukraine has created an uncertain global economic context that discourages foreign investors from engaging in real estate projects in Morocco. This conflict, the first of this magnitude on European soil since World War II, has significant repercussions on the morale of potential buyers, both local and international.
Direct consequences include:
- Blockage of essential raw material supplies
- Rise in construction costs
- General economic uncertainty
Impact on Raw Materials and Construction Costs
The war disrupts the supply of many crucial raw materials for the real estate sector:
- Gas and oil
- Cement
- Concrete
This situation leads to an increase in construction costs, which inevitably translates into higher real estate prices, making projects less attractive for investors and less accessible for potential buyers.
Evolution of the Moroccan Real Estate Market in Figures
| Indicator | Current Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Real estate demand | Declining | Downward pressure on prices |
| Real estate prices | Overvalued | Need for adjustment of 15% to 25% according to experts |
| Foreign investments | Declining | Weakening of the sector |
| Purchasing power | Weakened | Decreased investment capacity |
Aggravating Factors: Pandemic and Economic Context
The health crisis imposed drastic restrictions that disrupted economic activities and weakened the financial foundations of households and businesses. This financial fragility directly impacted citizens’ purchasing power, compromising their ability to invest in real estate.
Outlook for 2025
The Moroccan real estate market in 2025 will be characterized by:
- A necessary price correction (decrease of 15% to 25%)
- An adaptation to new global economic realities
- A possible recovery contingent on the stabilization of the international context
May 1, 2025, could mark a turning point for Moroccan real estate, with new dynamics expected in the market.
Investor confidence remains the key factor for the sector’s recovery, but it remains heavily influenced by global geopolitical uncertainties that continue to weigh on investment decisions in Moroccan real estate.
Good to know:
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated global economic uncertainties, impacting real estate investment in Morocco. Local and foreign investors are showing increased caution, influenced by significant fluctuations in oil and gas prices, which directly affect construction costs. Increases in raw material prices, coupled with exchange rate fluctuations, further complicate budget forecasts for real estate projects. In response, the Moroccan government has implemented measures to stabilize the market, including adjusting tax policies and encouraging the development of renewable energy to reduce dependence on energy imports. These interventions aim to strengthen foreign investor confidence, even though the volatility of the international context remains a persistent challenge.
Impact of the Arrival of Ukrainian Refugees on Housing in Morocco
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Morocco has seen a notable increase in the number of Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum on its territory. Although the majority of displaced Ukrainians headed to neighboring European countries, a significant portion turned to North Africa, particularly major Moroccan cities such as Casablanca, Rabat, and Marrakech.
This arrival has had a direct impact on urban rental demand. In these metropolises already marked by strong real estate pressure, the influx of newcomers has intensified competition for access to rental housing. Several local real estate agencies have reported a temporary increase in requests for furnished or semi-furnished apartments in central and peripheral neighborhoods.
Main Observed Effects:
- Increase in rents in certain sought-after neighborhoods
- Increased scarcity of short-term available housing
- Occasional tensions between local populations and newcomers over certain offers
Before this influx, the Moroccan rental market was characterized by:
- An offer mainly geared towards Moroccan families or traditional expatriates
- Relatively stable prices outside tourist peaks
- Few specific initiatives for the rapid reception of vulnerable foreign populations
Comparison Before/After the Arrival of Ukrainian Refugees
| Situation | Before Conflict | After Refugee Arrival |
|---|---|---|
| Housing availability | Moderate | Declining |
| Average rent level | Stable | Occasional increase |
| Tenant profiles | Local/classic expatriates | Diversification |
The challenges faced by these refugees are multiple:
- Difficulty in quickly providing all required guarantees (high bank deposit, lack of local history)
- Language barrier limiting access to informal rental networks
- Insufficient offers adapted to family or temporary needs
Several testimonies collected from Ukrainians settled in Casablanca report a feeling of “permanent uncertainty” in the face of the lack of intermediary structures between initial humanitarian accommodation and autonomous access to the traditional real estate market.
“We found an apartment thanks to a Moroccan friend after several weeks spent at different acquaintances’ places,” explains Olena K., mother of two. “But we were asked for three months’ deposit even though we hadn’t found a stable job yet.”
Faced with this unprecedented situation for the country, public policies have attempted a gradual adaptation:
- Occasional implementation of administrative aid to accelerate temporary regularization
- Limited support through certain partner NGOs offering mediation with private landlords
However, due to the lack of a structured national system specific to non-French-speaking extra-African refugees, many remain dependent on the private sector where they often face restrictive conditions and indirect discrimination.
In summary:
The growing arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Moroccan cities since 2022 has contributed to locally accentuating the tension on the urban rental market. Despite some ad hoc measures aimed at their temporary administrative integration, their real estate integration remains complex—marked by increased competition with the vulnerable local population and a glaring lack of specialized support.
Good to know:
With the notable arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Morocco following the conflict in Ukraine, major Moroccan cities have observed an increase in rental demand, particularly in Casablanca and Rabat, highlighting tensions in the local rental market. These refugees often face obstacles in integrating into the Moroccan real estate market, such as difficulties in providing rental guarantees or navigating a different legal and cultural environment. Moroccan reception policies, while allowing some administrative flexibility, have not entirely lifted these challenges, compared to a pre-conflict situation where demand was more stable. Refugee testimonies illustrate varied experiences: some succeed in finding housing through solidarity networks, while others struggle to find affordable homes, exacerbating existing economic barriers. Recent statistics show that rental pressure has increased by nearly 15% in some urban areas, underscoring the need for targeted support for these newcomers.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
