Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
Casablanca remains, in 2026, the most closely watched real estate market in the country. As the economic capital, the largest pool of salaried jobs, a transportation hub, and a showcase for major urban projects, the city concentrates demand pressures, pricing issues, and the bulk of investment flows, both local and foreign. Available data show a market far from overheating, but clearly trending upward, with very strong transaction activity and new supply struggling to keep pace.
The market is currently ‘negotiated,’ slightly favoring sellers for well-located and properly valued properties. Prices are rising moderately, sales volumes are increasing sharply, and interest rates remain contained. Major infrastructure projects are redrawing the map of opportunities. For mid- to long-term investors, the period is favorable for entry, provided you choose your segment and neighborhoods wisely.
A Market with Moderate but Solid Growth
Figures from 2025-2026 paint the picture of a healthy market, without hype but supported by strong fundamentals. In 2025, residential prices in Casablanca rose at an annual rate of between 3% and 7%, and official data still show an increase of about 1.2% in the third quarter of 2025, even as transaction volume surged nearly 24% over the same period.
Nationally, the annual rise in residential prices stands at around 1.5% going into 2026, and Bank Al-Maghrib, as well as the National Federation of Developers (FNPI), forecast annual appreciation of about 3% to 5% for residential in the coming years, with a more aggressive scenario of around 4% to 6% in major cities and up to 6% to 8% for certain luxury segments.
Cumulative increase in the average price of apartments in Casablanca over the past five years.
Casablanca in the National Context
On a national level, the gap between Casablanca and the rest of the market is clear. The average price of a house in Morocco is around 950,000 MAD, with a national average price near 10,500 MAD/m². In major metropolises like Casablanca and Rabat, values per square meter typically range between 12,000 and 15,000 MAD, and even higher for the most sought-after areas of the economic capital.
To better situate Casablanca, simply compare the recent evolution of prices per square meter in euros for houses and apartments. This comparison helps illustrate real estate market trends in the city.
| Year | Houses (€/m²) | Annual Change | Apartments (€/m²) | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,158.25 | — | 1,305.18 | — |
| 2023 | 1,251.33 | +8.04% | 1,455.55 | +11.52% |
| 2024 | 1,309.91 | +4.68% | 1,586.06 | +8.97% |
| 2025 | 1,510.93 | +15.35% | 1,856.58 | +17.06% |
| 2026 | 1,619.42 | +7.18% | 1,989.58 | +7.16% |
This upward momentum, especially pronounced from 2023 onward, confirms that the market is not “flat.” However, in real terms—adjusted for inflation—the picture is more nuanced: at the national level, the real price index is about 21% below its 2010 level. Over ten years, nominal prices have moved little, but inflation has eaten away some of the real value, making the current period look more like a recovery than a cycle peak.
Price Levels and Residential Market Structure
Casablanca offers a very wide price range, from entry-level studios to ultra-luxe oceanfront penthouses. The median home price is around 960,000 MAD, with an average price close to 1,125,000 MAD. About 80% of residential properties fall between 510,000 and 2,400,000 MAD.
The market remains overwhelmingly dominated by apartments, which account for roughly 75% of supply, versus 7% for villas, 5% for townhouses, 10% for studios, and 3% for upscale formats like duplexes or penthouses.
In terms of budget, it can be summarized as follows:
| Property Type | Typical Surface Area | Price Range (MAD) |
|---|---|---|
| Studio | ~35 m² | ≈ 440,000 |
| 1–2 Bedrooms | 60–80 m² | 750,000 – 1,000,000 |
| Family Apartment | 90–120 m² | 1,100,000 – 1,500,000 |
| Duplex | 140–170 m² | 2,000,000 – 3,000,000 |
| Villa | > 250 m² | from 5,000,000 and up |
| Entry-Level Housing | — | 450,000 – 650,000 |
| Luxury Segment | — | 4,000,000 – 12,000,000 and up |
The median price per square meter in Casablanca is around 11,300 MAD, with an average close to 12,500 MAD. New properties generally sell for 10% to 20% more than older buildings, reflecting construction quality, amenities (parking, security, green spaces), and the scarcity of well-located land.
In practice, the final selling price is often negotiated 5% to 10% below the asking price. To the purchase price, add between 7% and 10% in ancillary costs (registration fees, notary fees, etc.), plus a potential renovation budget of 5% to 20% depending on the property’s condition.
A Two-Speed Geography: Prime Neighborhoods and Peripheries
Price differences within the city are considerable. Casablanca is clearly a two-speed city: a coastal strip and a few central pockets where square meter prices reach highs, and a vast set of peripheral or semi-central neighborhoods where prices remain accessible, often with good rental yields.
The Most Expensive Neighborhoods
Aïn Diab, Casablanca Marina, Anfa, and Casa Finance City form the heart of the upscale segment. Aïn Diab is currently the most expensive neighborhood in the city, with prices around 31,500 MAD/m² and a typical range of 27,000 to 36,000 MAD/m² for apartments. Casablanca Finance City ranges from 22,000 to 30,000 MAD/m², Gauthier between 19,000 and 25,000 MAD/m², while Racine falls in the 17,000–23,000 MAD/m² zone.
Overview of price ranges for different property types depending on the neighborhood.
High price per m², generally above €10,000. Prestigious older apartments and renovated lofts.
Price per m² between €6,000 and €8,500. Townhouses with gardens and modern family apartments.
More affordable price per m², between €4,000 and €6,000. New housing and recent real estate developments.
Most accessible price per m², often below €4,000. Small apartments for renovation and older housing.
| Neighborhood (apartments) | Price Range (MAD/m²) | Typical Overall Price (MAD) |
|---|---|---|
| Aïn Diab | 27,000 – 36,000 | 3,000,000 – 7,000,000 |
| Casablanca Finance City | 22,000 – 30,000 | 2,200,000 – 4,500,000 |
| Gauthier | 19,000 – 25,000 | 1,800,000 – 4,000,000 |
| Racine | 17,000 – 23,000 | 1,600,000 – 3,600,000 |
| Triangle d’Or | 16,000 – 22,000 | 1,500,000 – 3,400,000 |
| Riviera | 16,000 – 21,000 | 1,400,000 – 3,200,000 |
| Marina | 17,000 – 23,000 | 1,500,000 – 3,500,000 |
In these areas, demand comes as much from senior executives and local business leaders as from expatriates, diplomats, and foreign investors, especially from Europe and the Middle East. You’ll find high rents, low vacancy rates, but also, for the investor, tighter gross yields, often around 4%–5% for the most “lifestyle” properties (e.g., certain seaside vacation products).
More Affordable Neighborhoods and Good Value
At the other end of the spectrum, neighborhoods like Aïn Sebaâ, Hay Mohammadi, Sidi Bernoussi, or parts of Hay Hassani show prices ranging from 9,500 to 12,000 MAD/m², or even less in the most peripheral areas. In Aïn Sebaâ / Hay Mohammadi, an apartment can be negotiated between 500,000 and 1,500,000 MAD for reasonable sizes.
In simplified terms, we can contrast a few broad neighborhood categories:
| Category | Neighborhood Examples | Average Prices (MAD/m², apartments) |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Premium | Aïn Diab, Marina, Anfa | 22,000 – 36,000 |
| Central Upscale | Gauthier, Racine, Triangle d’Or | 16,000 – 25,000 |
| Central/Mid-Range | Maarif, Les Princesses | 14,000 – 18,000 |
| Residential Family | Riviera, Oasis, Hay Hassani | 12,000 – 17,000 |
| Affordable Periphery | Aïn Sebaâ, Hay Mohammadi, Sidi Bernoussi | 9,500 – 12,000 |
For an investor seeking the best risk/return profile, it is often the intermediate belts – Maarif, Les Princesses, Hay Hassani, parts of Bourgogne or Oasis – that offer the most interesting combination: still reasonable prices, sustained rental demand from young professionals and families, and good access to transport and services.
A Strong Rental Market, Attractive Yields
One of the great strengths of Casablanca’s real estate market remains the power of its rental market. In a city where home ownership remains difficult for a significant portion of households, renting is the dominant solution, especially for young professionals, newly arrived households, and a large population of transferred executives.
Rental yields for apartments are considered attractive on a regional scale. Aggregate data shows an overall range of 5% to 8% depending on property type and neighborhood, with an average close to 7% for apartments.
Yields by Property Type and Zone
Detailed studies for Casablanca indicate the following average gross yields by apartment type (all zones combined):
| Apartment Type | Average Gross Yield |
|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | ≈ 8.18% |
| 2 Bedroom | ≈ 7.50% |
| 3 Bedroom | ≈ 6.72% |
| 4 Bedrooms and More | ≈ 5.61% |
This hierarchy is logical: the smaller the property, the higher the rent per square meter, hence a higher yield. This is especially true for studios and small one-bedroom units, where the optimal surface area to maximize yield per square meter is between 25 and 45 m².
This is the average gross yield for rental investments in Casablanca’s city center.
The price-to-rent ratio provides another perspective: in Casablanca, it takes an average of 14 to 16 years of rent to “repay” the purchase price of a typical apartment, which falls within a range considered consistent for a major urban market. A ratio of 0.50% monthly rent relative to price is already considered favorable for investment, while the national average is around 0.44% per month, with Casablanca often higher for good products.
Rent Levels and Rental Market Tightness
Rents reflect this tight context. For apartments, the following average levels are observed:
| Rental Type | Average Monthly Rent (MAD) | Observed Range (MAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom City Center | ≈ 5,583 | 4,000 – 8,000 |
| 1 Bedroom Outside Center | ≈ 3,207 | 2,000 – 6,000 |
| 3 Bedroom City Center | ≈ 10,600 | 7,500 – 15,000 |
| 3 Bedroom Outside Center | ≈ 5,598 | 3,500 – 12,000 |
Rental demand is growing at least as fast as supply; classified ad platforms do not report a surge in rental listings. In the most sought-after neighborhoods – Gauthier, Racine, Anfa, parts of Maarif – a correctly priced listing can find a tenant within days or weeks. Average vacancy nationwide is estimated at around 7% for cautious investors, but in Casablanca’s “core market” areas, it can be much lower.
For an investor, it is crucial to calculate the net yield by deducting all expenses (condo fees, taxes, insurance, maintenance, management) from the gross yield. As a rule of thumb, the net yield is 1.5 to 2 points lower. Thus, a gross yield of 7% equates to about 5% net in the best cases, and 3.5–4% net for standard products.
Demand Supported by Demographics and Employment
If Casablanca holds up so well, despite purchasing power sometimes under pressure, it is thanks to the strength of its structural drivers. The country has an urbanization rate of about 65%, and roughly 1.8% of the population migrates to cities each year. The Casablanca-Settat region is the most populous in the kingdom, with over 60% of its population under 35. This demographic pressure, combined with Casablanca’s role as the primary hub for salaried jobs, creates a very robust demand foundation.
Purchase and rental flows are primarily driven by young professionals, families forming, transferred executives, and Moroccans living abroad (MRE) who invest in real estate. This dynamic is reinforced by diaspora remittances and the emergence of an urban middle class.
Furthermore, international tourism plays an indirect but real role. The country welcomed nearly 19.8 million visitors in 2025, with tourism revenue close to 124 billion dirhams, or about 7% of national GDP. Casablanca, even if not the primary leisure destination, benefits from this flow through its hotel supply, short-term rentals (Airbnb), and its status as an air gateway.
Stable Interest Rates and Accessible Financing
On the financial side, the context remains favorable. Bank Al-Maghrib kept its key rate at 2.25% in December 2025, after a limited tightening cycle aimed at curbing inflation. Real estate loan rates average between 4.5% and 6.5%, with a typical rate around 5%–5.2%. This stability helps maintain affordability of monthly payments, especially for salaried households eligible for credit.
The central bank does not plan to tighten lending rules (such as loan-to-value ratios or stress tests) in the short term. This suggests a stable financing environment at least until the first half of 2026. The main risk would be a sharp rise in mortgage rates due to an inflationary or external shock, but this scenario is currently considered unlikely.
In parallel, the state maintains a range of housing subsidies: direct subsidies for properties up to 700,000 MAD, reduced VAT for social housing (units of 50–80 m² capped at 250,000 MAD), and price caps for middle-class housing (80–120 m², maximum 6,000 MAD/m²). Public guarantees FOGARIM and FOGALOGE secure part of the risk for banks, facilitating credit access for households with informal or moderate incomes.
Supply Struggling to Keep Up: Inventory Tightness and Structural Deficit
One of the most telling elements of the Casablanca market is the growing tightness of supply, particularly in the mid-range well-located apartment segment. Listing portals report a notable drop in the number of apartments for sale compared to the previous year, while sales are rising sharply. The gap is resulting in a shift toward a “tight” market, where good products sell faster and new listings slow down.
The national housing deficit in Morocco is estimated at 340,000 units.
This supply shortfall is reinforced by two phenomena. First, stricter rules for issuing permits and certificates of conformity are slowing groundbreakings and deliveries, especially in expansion areas. Second, scarcity and cost of land in central neighborhoods are pushing developers to reduce unit sizes and multiply small housing units – studios, one-bedroom units, and micro-apartments – to maintain affordable “face” prices, sometimes at the expense of comfort.
Infrastructure and Major Projects: A Powerful Value Driver
One of the main arguments in favor of investing in Casablanca concerns the depth of infrastructure projects, either underway or planned, that are altering the relative value of neighborhoods and creating substantial premiums around new transport corridors and economic hubs.
Tramway, High-Speed Rail, and Urban Network
The T3 and T4 tram lines entered service at the end of 2024, significantly improving access to neighborhoods like Sidi Maarouf, Oulfa, and connections to Aïn Diab. Market studies show that walking proximity to a tram station leads to a 10% to 15% premium on property prices, both for sales and rentals. In the medium term, the entire tram corridor (all lines combined) could see annual price growth of 4% to 7%.
More than 30% increase recorded in the value of certain peripheral real estate areas, linked to railway infrastructure projects.
Mohammed V Airport and the Air “Hub”
Another major project: the new hub terminal at Mohammed V Airport, with a total investment of about 15 billion dirhams, integrated into a global investment program of 25 billion dirhams managed by ONDA through 2030. The airport’s capacity expansion – coupled with air agreements, traffic growth, and the prospect of hosting the 2030 World Cup – should strengthen Casablanca’s role as a regional transport and services platform.
Areas between the city center and the airport, such as Sidi Maarouf and Nouaceur, as well as office and business housing corridors, offer strong potential. They benefit both from residential demand from employees in logistics, aviation, and services sectors, and from tertiary demand, fully capitalizing on this economic momentum.
2030 World Cup and Ripple Effect
The co-hosting of the 2030 World Cup with Spain and Portugal comes with a vast investment program in stadiums, transport, tourism infrastructure, and road and rail networks, estimated at around $41 billion. Several structuring projects directly or indirectly affect Casablanca: modernization of existing infrastructure, improvement of road and rail connections, and expansion of hotel capacity.
History shows that these large investment cycles can lead to substantial cumulative increases over a decade: overall projections for Morocco anticipate cumulative real estate price growth of 18% to 30% over five years, and 40% to 70% over ten years, with a maximum range of up to 80% in the most optimistic scenarios.
Neighborhood Focus: Where to Invest in Casablanca in 2026?
Even in a favorable market, neighborhood selection remains critical. Available data allows for distinguishing several strategic axes.
The “Safe Bets”: City Center and Near Center
Maarif, Gauthier, Racine, Les Princesses, parts of Anfa and Oasis form the core of central or immediately adjacent neighborhoods where demand is most consistent. These areas combine accessibility, services, shops, proximity to employment hubs, and good brand image.
In Maarif or Gauthier, a mid-sized apartment can trade between 15,000 and 18,000 MAD/m², with a gross rental yield around 5%–7% depending on size and building quality. These neighborhoods offer three major advantages for an investor:
– Above-average resale liquidity,
– Relatively easy rental with low vacancy periods,
– Historically steady price appreciation, even if not explosive.
This is the budget in dollars to acquire a 90 to 110 m² apartment in the Maarif district of Casablanca.
Emerging Employment Hubs: Sidi Maarouf, CFC, and Casa Anfa
Sidi Maarouf is often described as a kind of local “Silicon Valley”, a major hub for information technology, outsourced services, and corporate headquarters. The neighborhood benefits from the new tram connection, quick access to the airport, and a dynamic business environment. Prices there remain more reasonable than in upscale areas (often between 9,000 and 10,500 MAD/m² for apartments), while offering very competitive rental yields, usually between 6% and 8.5%.
Casa Finance City (CFC) and Casa Anfa play the high-end tertiary and residential card, with modern buildings, green spaces, a high concentration of international offices, and a clear positioning as a continental financial hub. Apartments there trade between 22,000 and 30,000 MAD/m², with villas potentially reaching 35,000 MAD/m². This is more of a bet on long-term capital appreciation and demand from senior executives and expatriates than on maximum “cash flow.”
Peripheries as Growth Bets: Bouskoura, Zenata, Sidi Bernoussi
For investors willing to accept a longer horizon (7–10 years) and a more pronounced risk/return profile, the peripheries currently being structured represent an interesting lever. Bouskoura, about twenty kilometers south of the center, combines natural environment, forests, new facilities, international schools, and planned urbanization projects; a bet on the city’s southward expansion.
Number of jobs that the logistics zone of the Zenata eco-city is expected to create by 2026-2027.
In more working-class neighborhoods like Aïn Sebaâ or Sidi Bernoussi, prices remain significantly below the center (25% to 40% cheaper), around 9,500–12,000 MAD/m², but revaluation can be supported by transport projects, new industrial and logistics zones, and the growing scarcity of affordable supply.
Recommended Investment Strategies
Given this landscape, several strategies emerge for those looking to invest in Casablanca in 2026.
“Buy-to-Let” Strategy on Mid-Range
The safest, and the one recommended by many analysts, is to target mid-range apartments in well-connected neighborhoods like Maarif, Les Princesses, Sidi Maarouf, or Hay Hassani. The idea is to prioritize:
– sizes between 50 and 90 m²,
– well-managed buildings, with parking and good construction quality,
– immediate proximity to transport (tram, major bus lines) and employment hubs.
In this niche, the target gross yield is 6% to 7%. Moderate annual appreciation is estimated at 2% to 4%. The price-to-rent ratio, around 14 to 16 years, is reasonable. The risk of prolonged vacancy remains limited, provided discipline is maintained on the purchase price and property upkeep.
“Capital Growth” Strategy in the Periphery
Another approach is to favor areas ahead of major infrastructure and urban development projects, such as Bouskoura, Zenata, or certain peripheral pockets near Sidi Maarouf and Nouaceur. Here, the bet is less on immediate rental yield – though it can remain decent – than on significant land appreciation over time.
This type of strategy requires: careful planning and precise execution to ensure effectiveness.
– a longer holding horizon (at least 7–10 years),
– an ability to withstand potential project delays,
– a good knowledge of development plans and developer quality.
Projected five-year growth range for these corridors under optimistic scenarios.
Diversification and Niches
Casablanca also offers opportunities in specific segments: warehouses and logistics (with yields potentially reaching 8%–10% and rents of 40–70 MAD/m² per month for quality warehouses), Grade A offices around CFC, or short-term rentals in tourist and business districts (Marina, Aïn Diab, Gauthier, Racine).
Airbnb-style rentals show occupancy rates around 45% citywide, with average nightly rates close to $54 (about 500–900 MAD depending on the neighborhood), and over 1,000 active listings. However, this segment remains subject to tourist accommodation permit requirements and higher regulatory risks.
Risks and Limitations: Cautious Optimism
Even though the overall conclusion on Casablanca remains “rather favorable” for investment, serious analyses insist on cautious optimism. Several sources of risk must be kept in mind.
First, household debt capacity is already stretched: the price-to-income ratio reaches nearly 15, and the credit burden corresponds to about 118% of income in certain typical scenarios. Many households are therefore at the limit of what they can reasonably absorb, which mechanically limits the scope for rapid price increases.
The market is characterized by an oversupply of luxury apartments and a shortage of affordable housing or quality office space. Upscale properties may see slower sales and price adjustments if foreign demand falls, while pressure on middle-class housing remains maximal.
On the macroeconomic front, the main risks identified are:
– a shock to mortgage rates in the event of inflationary pressure,
– a significant economic slowdown in Morocco or its main partners,
– a slump in tourism or major delays in projects related to the 2030 World Cup,
– deterioration of the regional geopolitical situation.
Finally, certain administrative rigidities (processing times, complexity of some land assembly procedures, anti-fraud measures) can lengthen project timelines and weigh on short-term profitability.
Why, Despite Everything, Casablanca Remains a Market to Favor
Despite these risks, observers agree: on the 2026–2028 horizon, Casablanca retains strengths that make it one of the strongest real estate markets in the region for residential and commercial property.
Several elements support this view:
Casablanca offers several advantages for real estate investment: it is a young and growing metropolis, a leader in formal employment. Its position as an economic hub is reinforced by Casa Finance City, Mohammed V Airport, and an efficient rail network including high-speed rail. Public policies are proactive in infrastructure and housing, with massive programs. Openness to foreign capital is notable, with few restrictions for non-residents. Finally, net rental yields remain competitive compared to many major European or Mediterranean cities.
In summary, the most likely scenario for Casablanca in the coming years is one of moderate but steady price increases (3%–7% per year depending on the area), supported by solid fundamentals and massive infrastructure investments. An investor with a horizon of at least five to seven years, willing to carefully select neighborhoods and remain disciplined on purchase prices, has a good chance of combining capital appreciation with attractive rental income.
To succeed in Casablanca, it is essential to base decisions on precise data (Bank Al-Maghrib, HCP, specialized platforms, market reports) and avoid following trends alone. Value is built in the details: micro-location, construction quality, proximity to the tram, clarity of the land title, and the product’s fit with actual neighborhood demand.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
