Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
The Greek Real Estate Market Faces the Consequences of the War in Ukraine
The real estate market in Greece, undergoing a revival after a decade of financial crisis, is facing new pressures due to the unprecedented impact of the war in Ukraine. The geopolitical and economic upheavals caused by this conflict have had direct repercussions on the Greek real estate sector.
Key Impacts on the Sector
Among the most notable effects:
- Changes in appeal for foreign investors
- Significant fluctuations in real estate prices
- Repercussions on the country’s energy policy
Good to know:
Due to its geographical proximity to tension zones, Greece has experienced increased migratory pressures since the start of the conflict.
Economic Challenges
The country also faces rampant inflation, adding a factor of uncertainty for:
- Potential buyers
- Real estate developers
- Institutional investors
Understanding these dynamics is essential to grasp the challenges and opportunities facing a sector considered a pillar of the country’s economic recovery.
Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine on the Greek Real Estate Market
The war in Ukraine has profoundly altered the dynamics of real estate investments in Greece, both through its security repercussions and the economic uncertainty generated at the regional level.
Security Concerns and Economic Uncertainty
- The rise in geopolitical tensions and the feeling of instability have pushed some investors to favor markets perceived as safer in the Mediterranean region.
- Uncertainty about European economic prospects, linked to energy disruptions and inflation imported from the conflict, has made decision-making more cautious for some local and foreign players.
- However, as observed in other neighboring countries, this perception of relative stability can enhance Greece’s appeal for investors seeking to diversify their assets away from areas directly exposed to the conflict.
Migration Flows and Housing Demand
- Migration flows resulting from the conflict have led to a notable influx of Ukrainian refugees into Southeast Europe. Greece has taken in a significant share of these displaced persons.
- This arrival has resulted in a temporary but marked increase in rental demand in several major Greek cities as well as in some popular or well-connected tourist areas.
Table – Main Effects on the Greek Real Estate Market
| Factor | Main Consequence |
|---|---|
| Migration influx | Increase in rental demand |
| Geopolitical uncertainty | Strategic portfolio diversification |
| Search for security | Increased attractiveness for certain investor profiles |
Impact on Real Estate Prices
- In the short term, the increased tension in the rental market has locally helped sustain or even drive up prices, particularly in segments accessible to expatriates and refugees with initial capital or international aid.
- In the classic residential segment as well as that dedicated to seasonal rentals (Airbnb), an amplifying effect is observed due to the intersection of strong external demand (migrants/refugees) and the maintenance or rapid recovery of post-pandemic tourism.
Strategic Choices of Investors
List – Typical reactions observed among different profiles:
- International investors: increased interest in Athens and Thessaloniki, considered stable; active search for tangible assets amid international financial volatility
- Local investors: repositioning towards affordable housing or properties intended for short-term rentals
- Institutional groups: enhanced monitoring of regulatory developments (Airbnb quotas, taxation)
Greek Regulatory Adjustments
Faced with new challenges:
- Possible adaptations concerning:
- Temporary/exceptional regulation of the rental market to avoid an uncontrolled surge in rents
- Specific administrative facilities to accelerate access to housing for displaced populations
- Occasional reinforcement of controls on certain incoming financial flows related to the tense geopolitical context
Emerging Opportunities
The Greek real estate sector thus benefits from:
– New visibility among investors seeking refuge from areas under direct sanctions,
– Increased diversification with a potential expansion of its customer base (Ukrainian/Russian expatriates),
– And potentially a sustainable rebound if these new dynamics are accompanied by an appropriate regulatory framework that promotes social stability while protecting economic attractiveness.
Good to know:
The war in Ukraine has stimulated real estate investments in Greece, particularly due to security concerns and economic uncertainty driving investors to seek safe havens for their capital. Migration flows from Ukraine have exacerbated housing demand, especially in major cities like Athens and Thessaloniki, leading to a rise in real estate prices. Investors, both foreign and local, are thus reconfiguring their strategies to capitalize on this upward trend. The Greek government has had to adapt its regulations to facilitate these transactions while managing the influx of migrants, which includes incentive policies for purchasing real estate. These developments offer considerable opportunities to strengthen the Greek real estate sector in a disrupted international context.
Ukrainian Crisis: Impacts on Housing Supply and Demand in Greece
The invasion of Ukraine has had a direct and prolonged impact on the Greek real estate market, exacerbating pre-existing tensions in the housing sector. Since 2022, Greece has seen a notable increase in real estate demand, fueled in part by the massive influx of Ukrainian refugees seeking to settle temporarily or permanently.
Main Developments Observed:
- Housing prices in Greece increased by approximately 11% between 2022 and 2023, according to Global Property Guide.
- This increase is largely attributed to heightened tension between supply and demand in major cities where refugees have predominantly settled.
- The total number of real estate transactions has also grown in line with this rising demand.
| Year | Price Variation (%) | Estimated Number of Transactions |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 – 2022 | +8 | Strong increase |
| 2022 – 2023 | +11 | Marked increase |
Most Affected Geographic Areas:
- Athens
- Thessaloniki
- Certain islands hosting humanitarian programs
In these regions, pressure on the rental stock has intensified. The sudden arrival of a large number of people has reduced the available supply for local residents and driven up not only purchase prices but also rents.
Sustainable Structural Effects:
The impact is not limited to prices alone:
- New construction struggles to keep pace with this new demand; administrative delays and rising material costs hinder the release of new housing onto the market.
Specific government policies have been implemented:
- Occasional acceleration of permits for social or mixed residential projects;
- Tax incentives to stimulate investment in the rehabilitation of existing buildings;
- Implementation (still partial) of targeted housing aid to facilitate the rapid integration of refugees.
Economic Challenges Related to the War:
The war in Ukraine weighs on the Greek economy overall:
- Imported inflation (especially energy/food), which directly affects construction costs;
- Relative decline in local purchasing power amid increased competition for a scarcer good;
Identified Future Challenges:
“The persistent housing crisis could last as long as regional geopolitical instability continues…”
Professionals anticipate that without a major acceleration in new construction or regulatory easing, these tensions should continue or even intensify until demographic stabilization or a mass return to their country of origin of a significant portion of Ukrainian refugees.
Good to know:
The Ukrainian crisis has significantly influenced the Greek real estate market due to the influx of refugees, increasing housing demand, especially in Athens and Thessaloniki. The number of real estate transactions increased by 25% in 2022 compared to the previous year, causing a rise in housing prices in urban areas, with an average of +15% in central neighborhoods. This context has pushed the Greek government to adapt its policies to accelerate the construction of new housing and reconsider urban zoning. However, economic challenges due to the war have slowed some construction initiatives, while persistent uncertainty could have lasting impacts on market dynamics. At the same time, only a few rural regions have hosted refugees, leading to limited demand and little impact on real estate prices.
Influence of Ukrainian Refugees on the Greek Real Estate Sector
The arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Greece has contributed to the increase in real estate demand, particularly in major cities such as Athens and Thessaloniki. Several factors explain this development:
- The massive influx of refugees requiring quick housing, often in urban centers offering infrastructure and existing solidarity networks.
- A marked preference for the rental market rather than purchase, due to uncertainty about the length of stay or lack of access to local mortgage credit.
- The pre-existing pressure on the rental stock due to the rise of tourism and short-term rentals (Airbnb type), accentuated by this new demand.
Consequences on the Rental Market:
- Significant increase in rents observed in the central neighborhoods of Athens and Thessaloniki since 2022.
- Housing occupancy rates near historical highs: several real estate agencies report near-saturation of available stock in city centers.
- Local households face greater difficulties accessing affordable housing due to increased competition.
Recent Trends (up to 2025):
| City | Average Annual Rent Variation (2023–2025) | Estimated Occupancy Rate (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Athens | +12% | >97% |
| Thessaloniki | +10% | >95% |
The average price per square meter continues to rise, with an expectation that “the increase will continue in 2025,” both in the center and in the suburbs. This dynamic is explained not only by the arrival of refugees but also by a general context of relative housing scarcity.
Supply/Demand Changes:
- Supply struggles to keep pace with new demand: few new residential projects are delivered quickly.
- Some landlords now favor seasonal or temporary rentals aimed at new arrivals sometimes equipped with European or associative aid.
Potential Government Responses:
- Temporary extension or expansion of the public/private stock mobilized to house vulnerable families
- One-off financial aid targeting both refugees and landlords accepting this audience
- Tax incentives to encourage long-term rental supply
In the long term, these measures could help partially regulate the tension but also risk, if they persist without parallel development of new housing stock, maintaining structural upward pressure on the entire urban residential sector.
Good to know:
The influx of Ukrainian refugees into Greece has placed significant pressure on the real estate market, particularly in major cities like Athens and Thessaloniki, where rental demand has increased sharply. This has contributed to a rise in rental property prices, with an average increase of 15% observed over one year. Occupancy rates have reached near-full levels, especially for small units often sought after by refugee families. To mitigate this pressure, the Greek government is considering launching affordable housing construction programs, as well as tax incentives to encourage the release of vacant housing onto the market. These initiatives could, in the long term, not only stabilize prices but also increase supply, making the market more accessible for both refugees and local residents.
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
