Greece vs Portugal vs Spain: The Real Estate Showdown for Investors

Published on June 9, 2026 and written by Cyril Jarnias

Greece vs Portugal vs Spain: where to invest in real estate in 2026 when you are a European investor, often French, looking for yield, controlled taxation, and ten-year appreciation prospects? All three countries share generous sunshine, mass tourism, and solid rental demand. But beneath this apparent similarity, their markets are now following very different trajectories.

Three Mediterranean markets, three different stories

Greece, Portugal, and Spain have all risen significantly since 2015, but not for the same reasons. Portugal experienced a true bull‑run fueled by tourism, expatriates, and the RNH (non-habitual resident) regime. Spain digested the bursting of its 2008 bubble and rebounded thanks to massive foreign demand and above-average eurozone growth. Greece, on the other hand, is just emerging from a decade of crisis, with a spectacular price rebound but from very depressed levels.

Greece: the still affordable outsider

Greece remains the most accessible market of the three. According to several market sources, the average price is generally around €2,400 to €2,600/m², while France is around €3,300/m² and countries like Germany or the UK far exceed €4,000/m². In some regions, opportunities can still be found from €1,000/m².

Portugal: after the euphoria, a soft landing

In Portugal, the story is different. The market experienced a spectacular surge starting in 2015, driven by tourism, the RNH status, and Golden Visas. Between 2015 and 2022, certain areas of Lisbon and Porto saw prices jump up to +90%. In 2024–2025, the market began to correct: a decline of 5 to 12% depending on the segment, followed by stabilization in 2026.

The national median crossed €2,000/m² at the end of 2025, with a value around €2,111/m² and, according to other analyses, an average range of €2,300 to €2,600/m². Major cities remain very expensive: over €5,000/m² in Lisbon on average in early 2026, around €4,000/m² in Porto according to some sources. Gross yields range between 4 and 7% depending on the city and type of rental, with a national average of 6.3% in early 2026, down from 7.3% in 2024.

Spain: market depth and strong polarization

Spain has established itself as the giant of the trio. Since 2013, residential transactions have increased by 138%. The country benefited from GDP growth of 3.3% in 2024 (versus 0.7% on average in the eurozone), massive foreign demand (nearly 100,000 purchases by non-residents each year, about 20% of transactions), and a highly diversified market, from micro-villages in Castile to the global metropolises of Madrid and Barcelona.

In 2026, the average Spanish price hovers around €2,000 to €2,200/m², up about 18.4% year-on-year at the start of the year according to some indicators. Major notary networks report an average price increase of 7.5% in 2025 after 6.9% in 2024, with peaks of +15% in the Community of Madrid or the Valencian Community. Gross rental yields range between 5 and 7% on average, with peaks above 8% in some mid-sized cities.

Spain and Portugal have both closed the chapter on real estate Golden Visas. Greece, however, maintains its program but is tightening it.

Comparative price overview: who is really cheap?

An investor’s first question remains the entry ticket. Here again, the comparison is far from homogeneous within each country.

Average prices and internal disparities

We can summarize some order‑of‑magnitude figures (average values or typical ranges) for 2025‑2026:

In terms of sheer affordability, Greece still dominates, especially outside Athens and the most sought-after islands. Opportunities at €1,000/m², or even less in some villages or secondary neighborhoods, are nearly impossible to find in Portugal’s dynamic zones, and much rarer in Spain along the popular coasts.

Rental yields: where is cash‑flow easiest?

On gross profitability, the three markets generally fall within a range of 4 to 8%, with significant variations depending on the city, type of rental (long-term or seasonal), and level of quality.

Greece: interesting yield, but highly contrasted

Studies on Greece show rental yields generally varying between 3 and 7% depending on location. A fine analysis of about eighty neighborhoods gives an average gross yield close to 4.7%, with a net yield around 3.2%, a median price of about €238,000, and an average rent of €1,050/month.

In Athens, we observe: political institutions, philosophical culture, architectural advances and dynamic commerce.

– Yields of 5–6% gross on standard residential rentals in several neighborhoods of the capital.

– Micro-markets with double-digit yields, especially in tight tourist segments or student rentals, where the acquisition price has remained low.

In summary: Greece offers a very wide spectrum of yields, with a core market around 4.5–6% gross, but much higher peaks in targeted tourist or student niches.

Portugal: solid but declining yield, highly dependent on taxation

In Portugal, yields generally range from 4 to 7% depending on the area, with a national average of 6.3% in early 2026, compared to 7.3% in 2024 and 7.5% in 2019. The decline is clear: prices have risen faster than rents.

Some benchmarks:

Portugal remains competitive in Europe in terms of yield, but the investor must factor in two key elements:

Spain: champion of the yield / market depth ratio

Comparative data show that Spain displays, on average, better yields than France: 7.16% gross versus 5.90%. Among major European cities, Alicante (6.3%), Rome (6%), or Valencia (5.8%) are among the top performers, while Paris, London, or Munich bring up the rear with 3–4%.

In 2026, Spanish gross yields generally range between 5 and 7%, with peaks above 8% in well-chosen mid-sized cities: Murcia, Zaragoza, Alicante, some outskirts of Madrid and Barcelona.

Some order‑of‑magnitude figures:

For an investor seeking immediate cash‑flow with a moderate budget (under €150,000), Spain probably offers the widest variety of options today: shared flats in university cities, families in well-connected suburbs, mid-term furnished rentals for teleworkers and digital nomads on certain coasts.

Taxation: Portugal deepens, Greece entices, Spain regulates

Once you move from the postcard to the spreadsheet, taxation becomes decisive. All three countries have profoundly changed their regimes in recent years, especially concerning residence permits by investment and taxation of rental income.

Portugal: a sophisticated but more selective tax arsenal

For investors, Portuguese taxation revolves around several major building blocks.

Income tax on rental income (IRS)

– Non-residents: flat tax of 28% on rental income.

– Residents: possibility of a fixed rate of 25% on long-term rentals.

– Affordable rent regime:

– Reduced IRS rate of 10% on eligible rents, instead of the usual 25%.

– For companies, only 50% of eligible rents are subject to IRC (corporate income tax), the other half being exempt.

– Decree-Law No. 97/2026 (May 20, 2026):

– Introduces the reduced rate of 10% on standard residential lease income that meets certain ceilings.

– 50% IRS (or IRC category B) exemption on income from certain residential leases.

Concretely, an investor who agrees to charge a rent below market values in targeted areas can more than halve their income tax on rental income. For a portfolio held through a company, the taxable base is also halved.

Local wealth taxation

– IMI (Annual Municipal Property Tax):

– Rate between 0.3 and 0.45%, up to 0.8% depending on the municipality, calculated on the cadastral value.

– 3-year exemption for properties bought for less than €125,000 (including in Lisbon) as a first primary residence by buyers under 35.

– Possible reductions for renovated properties or those located in certain areas.

– AIMI (Additional Tax on High-Value Real Estate):

– 0.7% above €600,000 of cadastral value,

– 1% from €1 million,

– 2% above €2 million,

– Exemption possible for properties eligible for the affordable rent regime.

Transfer tax (IMT) and stamp duty (IS)

– IMT: main fiscal cost at purchase; progressive rate up to 8%.

– Several exemption schemes:

– Primary residence up to €106,346 (mainland) or €132,933 (Azores, Madeira).

– Enhanced exemptions for first-time buyers under 35 since summer 2024.

– Ceiling at €660,982 for these exemptions in 2026, with a mechanism for full exemption up to €330,539, then partial up to the ceiling.

– Specific rate for non-residents:

– Since Decree-Law No. 97/2026, residential acquisitions by non-residents are taxed at 7.5% IMT, replacing the progressive rates, significantly increasing the entry cost for a foreign investor.

– Surcharge of 10% for investors from tax havens.

– IS (Stamp Duty): 0.8% of the price or cadastral value (whichever is higher), with possible exemptions in certain rental investment contracts (CIA).

Capital gains

– 50% of the real estate capital gain is included in the taxable base and taxed at the progressive rate (up to 48%).

– Exemption for primary residence if the gain is reinvested in another primary residence in the EU/EEA.

– After the 2023 reform, this regime applies uniformly to residents and non-residents: only 50% of the gain is subject to the progressive rate.

– Decree-Law No. 97/2026 introduces an IRS exemption on capital gains reinvested in properties intended for residential rental.

Greece: simple taxation at entry, growing pressure on ownership

The research provided mainly details transaction taxation in Greece.

At purchase:

– Real estate transfer tax (about 3.09%):

– 3% for the state + 0.09% for the municipality, calculated on the cadastral value (not just the sale price).

– Ancillary costs (order of magnitude):

– Lawyer: 1 to 2% excl. tax of the price,

– Notary: 0.8–1% excl. tax,

– Land registry / cadastre: 0.475–0.575% excl. tax,

– Real estate agency: 2 to 3% excl. tax borne by the buyer according to local practices.

In total, acquisition costs typically range between 8 and 12% of the property price, which remains lower than some Western European markets but higher than the Portuguese average (6–8%).

Annual taxation is mainly based on a property tax (ENFIA) whose rate, for a non-resident, translates in practice into a charge of 0.1 to 0.5% of the estimated property value. The cost of living about 35% lower than in France partially offsets this tax pressure and makes the net profitability of investments more attractive for an investor managing locally.

Finally, note that Greece maintains a Golden Visa program – but deeply revamped. Investment thresholds have been segmented:

And rental usage is now regulated: Airbnb-type rentals are prohibited for properties held under the Golden Visa, transforming the strategy of candidates into a capital preservation or long-term rental logic, rather than aggressive seasonal yield.

Spain: end of the Golden Visa but still competitive rental regime

Spain completely abolished its real estate Golden Visa regime on April 3, 2025. No more residence permits are issued based on a simple investment ticket of €500,000 in property. Foreign investors must now go through entrepreneur visas, highly qualified talent, intra-group transfers, or strategic projects. Real estate becomes a patrimonial investment again, not a “residential passport.”

Tax-wise:

– IRNR (Non-Resident Income Tax) on rents:

– 19% for EU residents (after deduction of expenses),

– 24% for non-EU (without the same deduction rights).

– Notional taxation of non-rented secondary residences:

– 24% (or 19% EU) on 1.1% of the cadastral value.

– Purchase taxes:

– Existing homes: ITP (Transfer Tax), between 6 and 10%, up to 13% depending on the region and price.

– New homes: VAT + AJD (stamp duty), also at regional rates.

– Annual taxation:

– IBI (property tax), plus various local taxes (waste, etc.) and sometimes a surtax on vacant homes.

Several autonomous communities have adjusted their taxes:

– ITP reduction in the Valencian Community (from 10 to 9% as of June 1, 2026).

– Reduced rate in Andalusia (5% for investors reselling within two years on properties up to €500,000).

– Targeted relief in Galicia, Cantabria, etc.

– Rate increase in Catalonia for acquisitions over €600,000 (up to 13% above €1.5M).

In parallel, the EU adopted Regulation 2024/1028 imposing mandatory registration of short-term rentals from May 20, 2026. Spain already applies a national housing law that caps rent revisions via a new index and requires that agency fees for long-term leases be borne by owners, not tenants. The combination of these rules strengthens tenant legal security but imposes on investors a need to better calibrate their cash-flow.

Price outlook: which still have fuel?

The three markets have already risen a lot. Should we fear a bubble?

Greece: catch-up cycle, but signs of tension

Greek prices have risen more than 80% between 2017 and 2025, and exceeded their 2008 peak by just over 7% at the end of 2025. The double-digit annual increases of 2023 (nearly +13.9%) have already normalized to 7–8%. For 2026, most analyses indicate an expected progression of 3 to 6%, sustained but less explosive.

Underlying, the dynamic remains robust:

– Driving role of tourism (Athens, Cyclades, Crete, Rhodes…),

– Appetite from foreign investors, especially for high-end second homes,

– Limited supply of new housing (24% drop in construction starts in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year),

– Low availability of existing stock, hampered by complex legal procedures, Airbnbization, and lack of new construction.

Portugal: a slower rise, under authorities’ watch

In Portugal, major institutions (Fitch, DBRS, Bank of Portugal) share a nuanced diagnosis:

– The country suffers from a structural imbalance between supply and demand, with a deficit of available housing against sustained domestic and foreign demand.

– The rise in construction costs (about +4.7% year-on-year in early 2026) hampers new production.

– Prices have largely exceeded the financial capacity of Portuguese households, creating a major affordability problem.

The Bank of Portugal explicitly mentions a “risk of a residential price correction”. Scenarios of “brutal adjustment” in the event of an economic slowdown or financial market stress are mentioned. Nevertheless, DBRS estimates that prices will remain high as long as supply does not ease, and that fundamentals will remain sound.

Spain: vigorous growth but heading toward moderation

Spain combines above-average economic growth in Europe, an estimated shortage of 1.2 million homes, and strong foreign demand. Projections for 2026 speak of price increases of 5 to 9% depending on the institute (BBVA Research, CaixaBank Research, Singular Bank), after nearly 9% average rise in 2025.

Longer-term, some scenarios still predict about 5% per year in the most dynamic cities and regions, with an expected slowdown as local purchasing power saturates and credit becomes more selective.

The areas with the highest tension (Madrid, Barcelona, Balearic Islands, parts of Malaga and the Costa Blanca) may experience slightly above-average growth, but the Spanish government has clearly expressed its desire to reposition housing as a right rather than a vehicle for speculation. This is already reflected in the abolition of the Golden Visa, partial rent controls in “stressed areas”, and plans for taxation or restrictions targeting purchases by non-EU non-residents.

Which country for which investor profile?

Now that this overview is drawn, how do we concretely choose between Greece, Portugal, and Spain in 2026?

Cash‑flow oriented investor

For an investor primarily targeting high gross rental yield, even if it means more management and vacancy risk:

– Spain comes out on top, especially:

– Mid-sized cities (Murcia, Zaragoza, outskirts of Alicante, some areas of Valencia),

– Student shared flats or coliving in large university cities,

– Mid-term furnished rentals in well‑connected neighborhoods.

– Greece can be very attractive in certain segments:

– Student rentals in Athens and Thessaloniki,

– Seasonal rentals on islands or in Crete, with gross yields potentially exceeding 10% on well-chosen properties.

– Portugal remains interesting in its mid-sized cities (Coimbra, Braga, Santarém, Évora, Leiria) or some gentrifying neighborhoods, but the core Lisbon/Porto now offers more moderate yields (3.5–5.5% gross for long-term).

Long-term patrimonial investor

For the investor who prioritizes gradual appreciation, good liquidity on resale, and legal stability:

“Residence + yield” investor

Many investors are not just looking for a financial asset but also a pied‑à‑terre:

Conclusion: a complementary trio rather than a single winner

In 2026, choosing between Greece, Portugal, and Spain is not about designating an absolute “winner.” All three markets have entered a new phase: fewer promises of exponential capital gains in the short term, more selectivity, fine‑tuned taxation, and consistency between location, rental strategy, and holding horizon.

– Greece appeals with its still low prices (on average 40% below those in France), potentially very high yields in well‑targeted niches, and a tremendous catch‑up potential in its secondary cities and islands. Conversely, the record public debt, social tension related to the housing crisis, and dependence on tourism require a cautious approach, based on quality locations and good knowledge of the local context.

– Spain positions itself as the deepest and most readable market for an investor thinking in portfolio terms: strong liquidity, geographic and sectoral diversity, above‑average economic growth in Europe, and average rental yield among the best in Europe. The counterpart is increasing regulation (housing law, end of Golden Visa, mandatory registration of short‑term rentals) and a permanent political debate about the role of the foreign investor in residential real estate.

The real question is therefore not just “Greece vs Portugal vs Spain: where to invest in real estate in 2026?”, but rather: what mix of these three markets best matches your risk profile, time horizon, and personal taxation?

Comparative analysis of real estate investment

A very patrimonial French investor could, for example, combine an apartment in Lisbon or Madrid for security and liquidity, with a high-yield property in a mid-sized Spanish or Greek city to boost cash‑flow. Another, more lifestyle‑oriented, would prioritize a second home in Crete or the Peloponnese, accepting a moderate yield but extensive personal use.

In any case, the key in 2026 is no longer simply hunting for cheap m², but the ability to read micro‑markets finely, to integrate new tax rules, and to think in net yield, after taxes and expenses, over a horizon of at least ten years. Only then will Greece, Portugal, and Spain remain, for savvy investors, much more than a postcard: a true pillar of their European wealth strategy.

Cyril Jarnias

Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.

On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.

Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.

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