USA vs Portugal vs Greece: The Real Estate Showdown for Investors in 2026

Published on May 19, 2026 and written by Cyril Jarnias

For three years, real estate investors have been navigating an environment shaken by inflation, rising interest rates, and then their gradual easing. In 2026, the landscape has changed: the sharp price surge is behind us in most developed countries, central banks are cautiously loosening the monetary grip, and markets are entering a more selective phase. In this context, many savers are eyeing the real estate world with the same question in mind: is it better to invest your money in the United States, Portugal, or Greece?

To compare these playing fields, you need to move beyond clichés—”American safety,” “Portuguese quality of life,” “Greek sunshine”—and take a hard look at the data: price growth, rental yields, demographic trends, monetary policy, taxation, as well as risks and regulatory constraints. Based on the most recent research, here is an in-depth overview.

Three Markets, Three Real Estate Cycles

Before diving into the details country by country, it is useful to place these markets in their respective cycles.

In Portugal, the story is different. The country is emerging from a period of soaring prices: over one year, in fall 2025, the median price per square meter jumped more than 16%, reaching around €2,111/m² nationally, and over €3,500/m² in greater Lisbon. Since early 2026, the market has clearly entered a phase of “controlled cooling”: prices continue to rise, but at a much more moderate pace, sales volumes are showing the first signs of slowing, and RICS surveys indicate a decline in new buyer inquiries. At the same time, authorities have profoundly changed the investment framework: the end of the Golden Visa through real estate, transformation of the NHR tax regime, reduction of VAT on certain programs, stricter regulation of tourist rentals. Nevertheless, analysts converge on a “soft landing” scenario: annual price growth of 2 to 4% nationally, slightly more in some secondary cities, and a market that is anything but a bubble ready to burst.

Comparing Fundamentals: Prices, Yields, Dynamics

For an investor, the key question remains the same: how much does it cost, how much does it yield, and how likely is this equation to hold over time. A simple way to gain clarity is to put a few key indicators side by side.

Table 1 – Overview of Price Levels and Yields

These national averages obviously mask enormous differences between regions and segments, especially in the United States. But they are enough to sketch a first picture: the U.S. offers, on average, higher gross yields, at the cost of sectoral volatility and a more complex macro environment; Portugal sits in the upper-middle range of the EU in terms of yield, with a still relatively affordable price level; Greece combines catch-up prices and decent yield, all against a backdrop of housing shortages and a tourism boom.

United States: A Giant in Rebalancing, with Highly Localized Opportunities

The U.S. real estate market is so vast that it is almost misleading to treat it as a single bloc. Yet, a few strong trends stand out for 2026.

On the residential side, major institutes converge: price growth should be weak but positive. Forecasts range from nearly no increase to about +4% depending on the source, with a median around +1 to +3% for the median existing home price. 30-year mortgage rates are expected to average around 6.3% in 2026, slightly down from the 6.6% in 2025, without returning to the exceptional levels of the COVID era. This decline of about 0.3 percentage points, combined with income growth outpacing inflation, slightly improves affordability without making it comfortable for first-time buyers. But it is enough to timidly revive sales: existing home transactions could increase by about 3 to 5% compared to 2025, reaching around 4.2 million annualized sales.

On the investment side, the picture is clearing up. After a collapse in commercial transaction volumes between 2022 and 2023 (from over $800 billion to about $360 billion), activity is picking up: about $440 billion in 2024, and a rebound expected to $562 billion in 2026, nearly at the 2015–2019 average. Institutional investors, private equity funds, and family offices are gradually returning, attracted by adjusted valuations (in many segments, prices have corrected 20 to 25% from the peak) and better visibility on rates.

The key in the United States is selectivity. Prospects vary greatly by sector: data centers and e-commerce-driven logistics remain in hypergrowth, with vacancy rates below 2% for data centers and rising rents, while secondary office space remains “structurally struggling.” Multifamily housing retains strong structural support (supply deficit, demographics, high purchase prices), even if some Sun Belt metros are still absorbing a wave of new deliveries. Senior housing, on the other hand, is entering a phase of historic acceleration: the first baby boomers turn 80 in 2026, fueling massive demand in this segment.

Portugal: From a Broad Boom to a Fragmented Market

In Portugal, the 2025–2026 snapshot is of a market reorganizing after a spectacular price surge. The national median crossed €2,000/m² at the end of 2025, with an annual increase of over 16%. Some regions did even better: the Setúbal peninsula saw prices jump more than 19% year-on-year in Q3 2025; the Coimbra region experienced a real leap, with over 32% increase in one year.

At the same time, secondary cities and inland areas are experiencing a genuine “second wind”. Braga, Setúbal, Coimbra, some parts of Alentejo or the interior north show annual price growth often exceeding 15%, even 30% in extreme cases (Terras de Trás-os-Montes, for example, saw prices jump over 34% in twelve months). These markets remain far from Lisbon or Cascais levels, but are catching up, especially as they increasingly attract domestic buyers priced out of the major metros.

For the investor, the challenge in Portugal is no longer to “buy everything, everywhere” but to choose your camp: preserve capital in prime areas (inner Lisbon, Cascais, upscale Algarve), or target yield in secondary cities, developing suburbs, and certain inland territories.

Greece: A Market Still Catching Up, Driven by Tourism and Supply Scarcity

Greece stands out with a rather rare combination: an economy showing growth above the eurozone average (around 2.1% in 2025, 2.3% expected in 2026), tourism breaking records one after another, and a housing stock unable to keep pace.

At the same time, Greece suffers from a chronic shortage of new supply. In 2025, barely over 23,000 building permits were issued in the first eight months, down nearly 25% year-on-year. In large cities, the lack of housing (for sale or rent) is estimated at around 180,000 units; more than 150,000 homes have been switched to short-term rentals on Airbnb and the like, further reducing the stock available for long-term rental. The structural construction deficit is estimated at about 5,000 homes per year relative to needs.

This imbalance fuels very strong pressure on rents: between 2019 and 2024, rents in Athens surged more than 50%, while incomes only grew by about 27%. Rent inflation peaked at over 11% in June 2025, before slowing somewhat but remaining well above general inflation. In November 2025, rents measured in the consumer price index were still showing +8.6% year-on-year.

In this context, price increases continue to be fueled by a powerful cocktail: shortage of well-located, energy-efficient homes, tourism boom, foreign capital inflows (nearly €2.7 billion in net real estate FDI in 2024, almost 40% of total flows), and a residence-by-investment framework (Golden Visa) still active despite a tightening of thresholds.

Table 2 – Focus on a Few Key Markets and Their Key Figures

These few benchmarks are enough to understand that the choice between the United States, Portugal, and Greece cannot be reduced to a simple yield arbitrage. Rather, it is about placing the cursor among three logics: a massive and sophisticated market (USA), a European market stabilizing after a boom (Portugal), and a Mediterranean market still catching up fast, driven by tourism and scarcity (Greece).

Rental Yields: Cash Flow or Risk-Return Arbitrage?

For those investing remotely, often with moderate leverage and an intention for long-term or seasonal rental, gross rental yield is a key indicator. But it does not tell the whole story: rent volatility, demand stability, taxation, and operating costs can profoundly alter the equation.

United States: High Average Yield, but Very Heterogeneous

Globally, the United States ranks high in terms of rental yield: around 6.5% gross on average, which is classified as “good” in international comparisons. This figure aggregates very different realities: a small house for rent in a secondary Midwestern city can yield 8% or more, while a high-end apartment in Manhattan or San Francisco often only achieves 3 to 4% gross.

The “Sun Belt” markets (Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Nashville, Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, etc.) continue to attract capital thanks to a rare combination: above-average population and employment growth, relatively permissive construction policies, but still a structural shortage of affordable housing. These markets absorb new housing deliveries better than some coastal metros and still offer interesting returns, especially in multifamily and build-to-rent.

Portugal: Moderate Yield Nationally, but Pockets of 6–8% in Secondary Cities

In Portugal, data shows a national yield ranging between 4.3 and 4.6% gross depending on the source, with estimates rising to 5.6% in some studies. In the global country ranking, Portugal appears as a “moderate” yield market, slightly above the EU average.

But again, everything depends on the micro-market and property type:

An important characteristic of Portugal is that small units (one-bedrooms) generally maximize yield as a percentage, thanks to a better rent-to-price ratio. In almost all cities, one-bedrooms offer higher yields than two- or three-bedrooms, even if the latter may be more liquid for resale or better suited for a family strategy.

Greece: Good Average Yield, but Extreme Differences Between Popular Center and Premium Riviera

Greece shows gross yields close to Portugal’s: around 4.4% in some global rankings, with other studies placing them at 5.2% on average. A detailed analysis of over 80 neighborhoods shows an average gross yield close to 4.7%, with an average net yield around 3.2%, for a median price of around €238,000 and an average rent of about €1,050/month.

Again, the contrasts are striking:

The appeal of Greece, from a yield perspective, thus lies in this gap between an overvalued prime (Riviera, Mykonos, Santorini) and a still affordable pool of small urban properties, with very solid rental demand, particularly from students, tourists, or remote workers.

Public Policies, Visas, and Taxation: A Decisive Factor

An investor does not choose a market solely based on raw numbers. The rules of the game—taxation, rental regulations, visa regimes, legal certainty—matter at least as much, especially for those investing as foreigners.

Portugal: End of the Real Estate Golden Visa, but a Range of Residence Visas and Adjusted Taxation

Portugal has thoroughly overhauled its toolkit in 2023–2025. The Golden Visa through real estate purchase has been abolished, amid a housing affordability crisis and political pressure. New applications can no longer rely on a simple property purchase; the remaining routes involve investment funds (minimum €500,000), research projects, business creation, or cultural donations.

This does not mean the country has closed its doors to foreigners. On the contrary, it retains a range of attractive visas:

On the tax front, the government has attempted to address the housing crisis with a mix of sometimes contradictory measures: on one hand, VAT reduction to 6% for certain new homes under €648,000, reduction of rental income tax to 10% for leases meeting “moderate rent” criteria; on the other, increases in transfer taxes (IMT) on high-end transactions for non-residents, restrictions on tourist rental licenses in Lisbon and Porto, and a proposed flat rate of 7.5% IMT for non-resident buyers, which would significantly increase the cost for investors.

The implicit message is clear: Portugal seeks to prioritize affordable housing production and long-term stability, while continuing to welcome foreign capital, but in a more targeted and less speculative manner.

Greece: Golden Visa Tightened, but Still Operational, and Stabilized Property Taxation

Greece, on the other hand, has chosen to maintain its real estate Golden Visa, while raising thresholds dramatically. Since 2024–2025, three categories coexist:

– A “premium” zone (Attica, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini, large islands over 3,100 inhabitants) with a minimum ticket of €800,000, for a property of at least 120 m².

– A “standard” zone covering the rest of the country, with a threshold of €400,000, also for properties of at least 120 m².

– A preferential route at €250,000 for projects converting commercial buildings into housing, or renovating listed buildings, available everywhere, with no minimum area requirement.

On taxation, Greece has recently adopted a relatively clear regime for the foreign investor:

– Transfer taxes are around 3.09% of the objective value, which, combined with notary and attorney fees and cadastral costs, results in total acquisition costs of about 5 to 7%.

– Property tax (ENFIA) is calculated on the cadastral value, with a rate per square meter and coefficients based on location; for now, it remains at an acceptable level for most properties, even if island villas may incur significant annual amounts.

– Capital gains tax for individuals… is actually suspended for more than ten years. Officially set at 15%, it has been deferred each year since 2013, and the suspension continues until the end of 2026. In practice, an individual selling a property before that date pays no capital gains tax in Greece, even as a non-resident.

United States: Sophisticated Framework, but Fragmented and Sometimes Heavy

On the U.S. side, the complexity comes less from the federal level than from states and local governments.

At the macro level, real estate taxation remains broadly stable: no revolution comparable to what is seen in Portugal or Greece. The issues lie rather in:

– The extreme variation in property taxes from one state or county to another, which can represent more than 2% per year of the property value in some markets, thus eating into net yield.

– Differences in rent control, eviction procedures, and tenant protections, which condition the legal security of rental income.

– Taxation on capital gains and rents, modulated by status (individual, LLC, REIT, etc.), but generally predictable at the federal level.

For an international investor, the main complexity lies in the interaction of this regime with their own home-country taxation, and the need to structure investments through appropriate vehicles (companies, funds, REITs), often with the help of specialized advisors.

Risk, Liquidity, Time Horizon: How to Arbitrate?

Numerical comparison alone is not enough to decide. There remains the question of the nature of risk, market depth, and investment horizon.

The United States offers, by far, the best liquidity: a deep market, colossal transaction volumes, a diversity of assets (housing, logistics, data centers, healthcare, senior housing, student housing, etc.) and an abundance of financial products (REITs, funds, debt, club deals) that allow fine-tuning exposure. This is clearly the favored playing field for the investor seeking an institutional risk/return profile, with the ability to enter and exit more easily, at the cost of structuring complexity and exposure to sometimes violent sector cycles (offices, retail).

Greece, finally, offers a more unusual combination: a market still relatively cheap given its tourist potential and macro trajectory, but exposed to specific risks (chronic housing shortage, social tension over affordability, regulatory risks on short-term rentals, bureaucratic complexity). The investment horizon is rather long, with interesting valuation potential in the coming years, especially outside already “Europeanized” micro-markets (Mykonos, Santorini, Athens waterfront). For an investor willing to accept some illiquidity and administrative complexity, the country offers attractive yields and a particularly favorable tax window on short/medium-term capital gains.

So, Where to Invest in 2026?

The answer depends less on the country than on the investor’s profile.

Those seeking a ultra-professional market with sophisticated investment vehicles, capital depth, and exposure to major structural themes (data centers, logistics, senior housing, multifamily) will naturally be drawn to the United States. In 2026, timing is rather favorable: valuations have corrected in many segments, rates are beginning to fall, and yield forecasts rely more on rental income streams than on the illusion of infinite cap rate compression.

Finally, the investor in search of catch-up potential, higher yield, and strong exposure to tourism will find Greece a particularly stimulating ground. The rapid but still incomplete price increase, the scarcity of new supply, rental yields sometimes exceeding 6–7% on small formats, the tax window on capital gains—all form a set hard to ignore. However, it requires a very selective approach: avoid micro-markets already at “Swiss” prices with compressed yields, favor areas with solid rental demand (Thessaloniki, central or transitioning neighborhoods of Athens, university towns, well-served but still affordable islands), and absolutely surround yourself with local advisors to navigate bureaucracy and new rules on short-term rentals.

In 2026, there is no universal answer to the question “United States vs Portugal vs Greece: where to invest?” There is, however, one certainty: the time of global bets on broad price increases is over. Yield will be determined, in all three countries, at the level of micro-markets, asset quality, financing structure, and investors’ ability to read weak signals—whether from the Fed, the Bank of Portugal, or the Bank of Greece.

Market analysis 2026

For those who can combine these parameters, these three destinations are not opposed; they complement each other. Nothing prevents combining, for example, liquid exposure to U.S. real estate via listed vehicles, a few well-chosen apartments in Portuguese secondary cities yielding 6–7% gross, and one or two targeted assets in Greece positioned on remote work or high-end tourism. In a world where real estate has become a matter of precision rather than a rising tide, this geographic and sectoral diversification might just be the real answer to the question posed.

Cyril Jarnias

Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.

On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.

Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.

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