Investing in US Real Estate in 2026: The Complete Guide for French Investors

Published on May 19, 2026 and written by Cyril Jarnias

In 2026, the US real estate market is shaping up as one of the most interesting playgrounds for foreign investors. The market is emerging from a phase of extreme tension, prices are slowing, volumes are picking up again, rents remain solid, and above all the US legal framework remains surprisingly open to non-residents, while other countries have closed the door with surcharges and quotas.

This guide provides an overview of the US market in 2026, then zooms in on the reality for a French investor: yield potential, target cities, financing, taxation, regulatory risks, and concrete ways to protect against them.

A solid but less euphoric US real estate market

The consensus among major players (J.P. Morgan, Zillow, Realtor.com, NAR, CBRE…) is clear: 2026 is not a year of soaring prices, but a year of soft landing, with performance driven more by income (rents) than by capital gains.

National forecasts for residential price increases all hover around the same range: between 0% and 4–4.5% depending on the model, with several scenarios around 1–2% growth. Zillow anticipates growth of about 1.2%, another model places the median around 1%, while Realtor.com cites around 2.2%. J.P. Morgan, for its part, even envisions flat performance, i.e., 0%.

Sales recovering despite still-high rates

After a sluggish 2025, activity is picking up. By the end of 2025, existing home sales rebounded 5.1% month-over-month to reach a near three-year high, and new home sales in the fall exceeded expectations. For 2026, NAR expects about a 14% increase in existing home sales, with gradual improvement in affordability bringing sidelined buyers back into the market. Zillow is more cautious but still forecasts over 4.26 million existing-home transactions, a 4.3% increase.

Fixed 30-year rates should remain between 6% and 6.3% on average, with Realtor.com forecasting around 6.3%, NAR estimating ‘close to 6%,’ and Zillow warning that the market should not count on a massive rate easing.

Real estate market analysis

Yet, despite this high plateau, affordability is improving at the margin. First, because wages are rising faster than prices (+3.5% to 4% on compensation in 2025), and second, because builders are increasingly using “rate buydowns”—mechanisms where they pay up to 100 to 200 basis points to artificially lower the buyer’s mortgage rate. This doesn’t make monthly payments a giveaway, but according to several studies, it is enough to move a fringe of buyers from “spectator” to “active.”

A supportive rental market, especially for single-family homes

The real driver of investment in 2026 is not rapid asset appreciation, but the strength of rents. Several signals converge:

Rent forecasts reflect this mixed situation. For multifamily overall (apartment buildings), the expected increase is very moderate: Zillow mentions only +0.3% in 2026, a direct consequence of a wave of completed but still unleased construction in many Sun Belt and Midwest markets. In contrast, rents for single-family homes should rise around 2.3% over the year, driven by households that forgo buying but still want a “house” product.

In summary: for a French investor targeting rental yield, the single-family rental (SFR) or build-to-rent programs clearly appear to be the segment to favor, especially in markets where entry prices remain below the national median.

Why the 2026 context is specific for a French investor

The appeal of entering the US market in 2026 is not just about domestic fundamentals. You also need to look at the global macroeconomic backdrop, the euro’s position against the dollar, and the cycle of other real estate markets (including France).

Meanwhile, the dollar has remained robust in recent years, which has slowed some foreign buyers. But international capital flows are clearly picking up again. In 2024, cross-border investments in US real estate grew by 40% in the second half, mainly from Europe, attracted by adjusted valuations and a more fluid credit market. Between April 2024 and March 2025, existing home acquisitions by foreign buyers surged to about $56 billion, with over 78,000 transactions (versus 54,300 a year earlier).

For a French investor, two additional elements weigh in the balance:

– the French market has stopped soaring and remains expensive: prices are about 55% above their long-term trend according to public indicators, typical gross residential yields often cap around 3–4%, and regulatory constraints (especially on rentals and energy) are tightening;

– US real estate, for its part, did not experience a general correction during the monetary tightening, but is entering a phase of slow growth with rental yields significantly higher than French standards in many secondary cities.

In other words, 2026 looks like a window where you can still buy US assets in a stabilizing market, before a likely increase in domestic competition if rates were to fall further.

A US system very open to foreign buyers

One of the great advantages of the United States for a French investor is the fundamental simplicity of market access. At the federal level, there is no general restriction on property ownership by non-residents. You do not need a visa, a green card, or US tax residency to buy an apartment, a house, or a commercial building. You pay the same transfer taxes as an American, without any specific surcharge linked to your nationality, unlike in Canada, Australia, Singapore, or certain European metropolises.

A foreign buyer can thus purchase:

– single-family homes,

– condos,

– units in multi-unit buildings,

– short-term rental properties (subject to local regulations),

– income-producing buildings,

– commercial assets (offices, retail, warehouses, etc.).

The new wave of restrictive laws: who is affected?

Since 2021, nearly 36 states have adopted legislation regulating or even prohibiting land acquisitions by nationals or entities linked to certain countries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Maduro’s Venezuela, sometimes Syria or Cuba). More than 400 bills have been filed on the subject in just a few years, and 54 have been definitively passed. Most focus on:

– agricultural land,

– natural resources and mineral rights,

– land near critical infrastructure or military bases.

The French, like most Europeans, are not on these “adversary” lists and remain free to buy most residential and commercial properties. However, these new rules imply two things for a savvy investor:

– systematically include local regulatory due diligence, especially when buying agricultural land, raw land, or a property very close to a sensitive site;

– anticipate that this legislative field will continue to evolve in 2026, as about fifty new bills are already being studied at the state level and in Congress.

Where to invest: the most promising markets and segments for a French investor

With this backdrop in place, the question becomes very concrete: what types of assets and which cities to choose for a good balance of yield, liquidity, and regulatory risk?

Major regional trends: Sun Belt, Midwest, East Coast

Several major dynamics structure the US landscape.

On one side, the Sun Belt markets (Arizona, Texas, Florida, North Carolina…) retain strong appeal thanks to:

– no state income tax in some states,

– dynamic demographics,

– strong job creation,

– prices often lower than those on the West Coast or in New York.

However, they are emerging from a spectacular construction boom in 2021–2022, which locally creates a supply glut for apartments (multifamily) and may weigh on rents and occupancy in the short term. Conversely, single-family homes remain sought after, and the build-to-rent segment is rapidly expanding, driven by households that cannot buy but want to settle permanently in a house.

Finally, the major global hubs – New York, Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco – remain the preferred landing spots for a portion of international clients. They combine:

– exceptional liquidity,

– safe-haven status for international capital,

– but also very high entry prices and rental yields often lower than secondary markets.

For a French investor seeking a good balance between risk, return, and management complexity, the sweet spot is generally in medium-sized, well-connected metros with a diversified economy and still-affordable prices.

A few cities with strong rental potential

Price and rent data from end of 2025 give a good overview of the magnitudes in a sample of markets.

In addition to these metros, there are markets with higher cash-flow intensity, particularly in the Midwest or some segments of the South, where purchase prices can range from $120,000 to $180,000 for a home, with monthly rents around $900 to $1,300. In some sub-markets, you observe:

Investing in these markets requires more active management (renovations, tenant turnover, higher vacancy risk in certain neighborhoods), but can provide net returns far above those available in the French residential market.

Entry price: how much should you budget?

The order of magnitude for a French investor is fairly clear. In many attractive intermediate markets, so-called “entry-level” properties are between $300,000 and $450,000, with current rents in the range of $1,800 to $2,600 per month. In some contexts, homes trade between $320,000 and $500,000, typically renting for $1,800 to $2,700.

These rent levels allow, in well-chosen cities, aiming for gross yields on the order of 6 to 8%, or even higher in more affordable or lower-cost markets. The key then lies in managing expenses (property tax, insurance, maintenance, management) and taxation (see further on FIRPTA and the tax treaty).

Real estate sectors to watch in 2026

For a French investor, US real estate is not limited to single-family homes or condos for rent. The country also offers relatively straightforward access to professional segments, most of which remain difficult to access directly on the French market.

Residential rental real estate: core portfolio

Sector studies rank workforce housing and single-family rentals among the most attractive sub-segments for 2026. They receive high investment outlook scores, driven by:

– the growing gap between purchase price and median income,

– the significant volume of households priced out of homeownership,

– very strong rent resilience, even during macroeconomic slowdowns.

Build-to-rent – subdivisions of homes built for long-term leasing – constitute a strong development axis. They offer:

– a response to the shortage of family housing,

– an alternative for households that forgo buying,

– and stable returns for investors, with centralized professional management.

Commercial real estate and data centers: the big leagues

On the commercial front, CBRE anticipates a 16% increase in investment activity in 2026, to around $562 billion, a level close to the 2015–2019 period. Returns are expected to be primarily ” income-driven“: value will come mainly from rents, not from a spectacular expansion of valuation multiples, even though cap rates should compress by 5 to 15 basis points in many sectors.

– data centers, with leasing demand expected to hit an all-time high in 2026, but supply constrained by increasingly long lead times for electrical interconnection;

– top-quality (“prime”) offices in certain markets, where scarcity of modern space is being felt even as leasing activity exceeds 2019 levels;

– industrial and logistics warehouses, supported by reshoring and the use of third-party logistics providers (3PL);

– certain retail formats (neighborhood centers, convenience stores, discount, grocery) finding a second wind in a post-e-commerce environment.

Short-term rentals: high potential, real regulatory risk

Vacation rentals à la Airbnb continue to generate substantial income in the United States. Recent figures show, for example, that US hosts earned some $22 billion in revenue in 2022, with a median income around $14,000 per host.

But the rise of local regulations (night caps, bans in certain neighborhoods, registration and safety requirements) demands particular vigilance. Expected returns can far exceed those of traditional long-term rentals – some leisure markets can achieve much higher gross returns – but at the cost:

– of greater volatility (seasonality, tourist trends, competition),

– of real political risk (rule changes),

– and of more time-consuming management (cleaning, check-ins/outs, marketing).

For a French investor, this is therefore more of an opportunistic complement within an already diversified portfolio, rather than the core of a long-term strategy.

How can a French investor finance in the United States?

Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to obtain a US mortgage as a French non-resident. Several types of financing coexist, with varying terms and requirements.

Standard “foreign national” loans

Some large international or private banks (e.g., HSBC, certain wealth management networks like JP Morgan or Citi Private) have dedicated programs for non-residents. Their logic is simple:

– no US credit history (FICO) required,

– thorough review of bank statements and income documents from the home country,

– higher down payment than a resident (often 30 to 50% of the price),

– requirement for substantial reserves (several months, sometimes a year, of payments in an account).

Cash-flow-based loans (DSCR loans)

For pure rental investment, an interesting alternative lies in DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans. Their principle:

– the bank primarily looks at the property’s ability to generate enough rent to cover the debt service,

– the borrower’s personal income carries less weight in the decision,

– it is possible to finance rental properties without proving a regular US salary.

Procedure and documents to prepare

Specific requirements vary by lender, but there is always a common foundation:

– valid French passport,

– US tax identification number (ITIN) or, failing that, steps being taken to obtain it via form W‑7,

– bank statements (often for 2 to 6 months) showing funds for down payment and reserves,

– income documentation (pay stubs, tax returns) if the property is not strictly rental,

– possibly credit reports from the home country.

For a 100% rental setup under DSCR, the bank will additionally require a realistic rent estimate (often supported by an appraisal or market report).

Taxation on the US side: FIRPTA, property taxes, and capital gains

Investing directly in a US property involves a double tax layer: that of the United States, then that of France, mitigated by the bilateral convention.

The FIRPTA mechanism upon resale

When a non-resident sells real estate in the United States, they are subject to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA). Concretely, the buyer (or their closing agent) must withhold a percentage of the sale price and remit it to the IRS as a prepayment of capital gains tax. This withholding is typically around 15% of the sales price, with possible adjustments depending on the amount and the use of the property (buyer’s primary residence, etc.).

Local taxes and rental income

During the holding period, one must account for: time management, social isolation, interactions with other inmates, detention living conditions, and family visits. <– This appears to be a translation error in the original French? The original French says: "Au fil de la détention, il faut compter avec : la gestion du temps, l'isolement social, les interactions avec d'autres détenus, les conditions de vie en détention, et les visites familiales." That seems out of context (prison). Possibly a mistake in the source? I will translate it literally as is, but check the original: Actually the original French text has this paragraph: "Au fil de la détention, il faut compter avec : la gestion du temps, l’isolement social, les interactions avec d’autres détenus, les conditions de vie en détention, et les visites familiales.” That seems like a stray paragraph from a completely different context (prison). But I must translate the given text as is. However, looking again, the original French has this under “Impôts locaux et revenus locatifs” and it says “Au fil de la détention” which might be a typo for “Au fil de la détention du bien” (during property ownership)? No, it says “détention” which can mean “detention” but also “holding” (as in property holding). Actually “détention” in French can mean “holding” (possession) in a legal/financial context. So it’s likely “during the holding period”. The text that follows appears to be a list of things like “time management, social isolation…” which is very odd. Possibly the original French had a placeholder or a mistake. I will translate the French as given, but maintain the meaning of “holding” for “détention”. However, the list items seem irrelevant to real estate. I will keep them as they are in the translation, as it’s a direct translation.

Rents must be reported to the IRS, either by opting for taxation on net profit (income minus expenses) if choosing the “effectively connected income” regime, or by staying with a gross flat-rate withholding, which is less advantageous for an investor bearing significant expenses (management, repairs, loan interest, etc.).

Franco-American tax treaty: avoiding double taxation

Fortunately, the tax treaty between France and the United States governs the sharing of taxing power between the two countries.

Where do you pay what?

The basic principles are as follows:

– real estate income (rents) is taxable primarily in the country where the property is located. So an apartment in Houston is first taxed in the United States, even if the owner is a French tax resident;

– capital gains on real estate are also taxed first in the country where the property is located;

– in parallel, France, as the country of tax residence for the French owner, considers this income in the overall tax calculation but grants a tax credit corresponding to taxes already paid in the United States, to avoid economic double taxation.

1. declares their rents and expenses in the United States, pays the corresponding tax; 2. then declares these same rents in France in their global return, where they serve to determine their effective tax rate; 3. benefits from a tax credit mechanism, under the treaty, which cancels out, in whole or in part, double taxation.

For capital gains, the pattern is similar: taxation first in the United States (with the FIRPTA mechanism upstream), then tax credit on the French side.

Particularities to know

The treaty includes numerous technical provisions, notably on:

For real estate, the key takeaway for a French investor is that:

– the United States retains authority over current property taxation (local taxes, federal and state income and capital gains taxes);

– France does not forgo including this income in its own calculation, but must account for tax already paid across the Atlantic via a tax credit.

The issue is therefore not to avoid all tax, but to avoid overtaxation through ignorance or poor structuring.

Structuring your investment: in your own name or through a company?

A French person can buy US real estate:

– in their own name,

– via a US company (often an LLC),

– via a foreign company (holding, Luxembourg structure, etc.),

– or even via collective vehicles (REIT, private funds, syndications).

Buying in your own name is the simplest administrative path, but raises several issues:

Many international families opt for an LLC or a hybrid structure, which allows for:

– separating the asset from personal wealth,

– preparing for succession,

– more easily managing partnerships between co-investors.

The tax impact of these structures depends, however, on the choice of classification (transparent or opaque entity for the IRS, taxation at the member or entity level), which requires guidance from tax specialists proficient in both US and French law.

Risks and points of vigilance in 2026

Even if the dominant narrative is that of a “window of opportunity” for foreign investors, several very real risks must be taken seriously.

Persistently high interest rates

Projections for 2026 leave little hope of a quick return to mortgage rates of 3% as in 2020–2021. Around 6–6.3%, financing conditions remain heavy for US households, which:

– limits the potential for short-term price increases,

– but also maintains sustained pressure on rental demand.

For a French investor, this means not building a business plan on a scenario of rapid strong appreciation, but rather on:

– solid rental yield from the start,

– the possibility of refinancing in 3 to 5 years at a lower rate,

– and discipline in market selection (quality of employment base, demographics, historical rental vacancy).

Regulatory risk on foreign ownership

Even though the French are not in the crosshairs of laws targeting certain “adversary” states, the proliferation of measures at the state level creates uncertainty about future evolution. Several trends are clear:

The countermeasure for a French investor consists of:

– prioritizing standard residential properties in urban or suburban areas, far from any strategic sensitivity;

– staying informed, via a local attorney, of legislative developments in the state where the property is located;

– favoring markets with a stable legal environment that is not highly politicized on land issues.

Macroeconomic volatility and currency risk

While the euro/dollar exchange rate is not the core focus of this guide, it remains obvious that a French investor in the US is exposed to two risks:

– operational risk (local market, vacancy, repairs),

– and currency risk (future value of the property and rents in euros).

Several strategies exist to mitigate this risk:

– finance in dollars a significant portion of the investment, so that asset and debt move in the same currency (a weaker dollar reduces the value of the property, but also that of the debt);

– spread out currency conversions over time (not converting all at once);

– for investors of significant size, use hedging instruments (forwards, options) over selected horizons.

How to take action: a roadmap for a French investor

To close this overview, it is useful to summarize a pragmatic approach for a French person who genuinely wishes to place part of their real estate assets in the United States in 2026.

A typical path might look like this:

1. Clarify your objectives Determine whether you are primarily seeking rental yield, currency diversification, building a second home with appreciation potential, or a mix of the three. The target city and property profile will follow.

2. Choose 2 to 3 target markets Based on price data, rents, and macro trends (Dallas, Houston, Columbus, Charlotte, Atlanta, certain Midwest markets, etc.), identify a few cities where prices remain affordable and fundamentals solid. Beware of markets that are merely “trendy.”

3. Build a local team Recruit a real estate agent accustomed to foreign buyers, an attorney specializing in real estate, and, if necessary, a US–FR tax specialist. Favor profiles that have already worked with non-resident Europeans.

5. Structure ownership With tax advisors’ help, decide whether it is more advantageous to buy in your own name, via an LLC, or another structure. Consider impacts on estate, tax treaties, and management simplicity.

6. Secure local regulatory compliance Check that the chosen city and state do not impose particular restrictions for your profile (even though France is not an “adversary” country) and that the property is not on specially designated land.

8. Plan your exit Before buying, think about resale scenarios: whom to sell to, what time horizon, how to handle FIRPTA taxation and the Franco-American treaty. An investment is easier to manage when the exit strategy is clear.

In 2026, US real estate is neither a risk-free El Dorado, nor a saturated and inaccessible market. It is a sophisticated, deeply liquid environment with relatively stable rules for the French, but crossed by tensions (rates, politics, national security) that it would be unwise to ignore. For those who accept to learn, surround themselves with experts, and think like professional owners rather than simple buyers of a second home, the United States still offers combinations of yield, diversification, and market depth that are hard to find elsewhere.

Cyril Jarnias

Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.

On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.

Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.

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