Published on and written by Cyril Jarnias
With more than nine out of ten residents already living in cities, the coming years are set to be decisive for Turkey’s urban future. Under the combined pressure of population growth, economic transition, seismic risk, and climate change, the country is piling up projects: transport infrastructure, “smart cities,” seismic retrofitting, major public facilities, rail corridors, new forms of social housing, local climate plans, green and blue networks…
Amount in Turkish liras of public investments planned for the year 2026.
A national strategy for “livable and sustainable” cities
At the heart of this dynamic, the state is trying to bring order to an urban planning landscape long dominated by rapid expansion, real estate development, and large-scale infrastructure projects. The Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (MoEUCC) has set a clear national vision with the 2020‑2023 National Smart Cities Strategy: “livable and sustainable cities that add value to life.”
This roadmap, structured around strategic objectives and around forty actions, requires all cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants to develop local ‘smart city’ strategies and their own roadmaps. It is based on national reference frameworks such as the 10th and 11th Development Plans, the KENTGES document (Integrated Urban Development Strategy 2010‑2023), and the Transport and Logistics Master Plan 2053, which gives a central role to smart mobility.
At the same time, Turkey is updating its climate instruments: climate strategy, action plans, a climate law under preparation, a revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with a 41% emission reduction target by 2030, and above all a “net zero” commitment by 2053. Within this framework, cities become the first line of defense: in 2015, they already accounted for 65% of national CO₂ emissions, 81% of energy sector emissions, and nearly 70% of residential emissions.
The national workshop ‘Building climate-smart and resilient cities in Türkiye: Climate Action Planning and Green Urban Infrastructure,’ organized in Ankara with the World Bank, marked a turning point. It brought together ministries, major cities (Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Antalya, Gaziantep, Konya, Samsun, Sakarya), international financial institutions (AFD, AIIB, EBRD, IDB, DBSA), and experts. The central themes were green infrastructure, climate planning, and innovative financing. The work resulted in a synthesis report and concrete projects.
To understand the scale of upcoming projects, one must start from vulnerabilities.
Turkey is now an urban country. According to sources, the urban population represents between 75% and over 93% of the total population, compared to barely 25% in 1950. Projections predict 80% urbanization by 2030, 86% by 2050. This ongoing rural exodus fuels a structural demand for housing – estimated at around 800,000 units per year – which recent production has only half-covered. Hence a chronic shortage, tight prices, and strong pressure on the regeneration of existing urban fabric.
Turkey faces a major climate risk with a vulnerability score of 9/10. It experienced more than 8,200 extreme events between 2010 and 2021, causing thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in losses. The threat of sea-level rise exposes 22 million residents in low-lying coastal areas, risking the submersion of 1,600 km² and the displacement of more than 214,000 people.
Finally, seismic risk remains omnipresent. The February 2023 earthquakes brutally reminded of the urgency to strengthen buildings and infrastructure. The national development plan makes the creation of “urban areas resilient to earthquakes and climate change” one of its main axes. Disaster risk reduction plans (PDRRP) have been prepared in all 81 provinces, supplemented by a national disaster risk reduction plan led by the disaster management agency AFAD/DEMP.
Transport infrastructure and major projects: structuring urban growth
One of the pillars of future urban development in Turkey remains massive investment in transport infrastructure, which is reshaping growth corridors, the location of activities, and land value.
In 2026, the “Transport and communication” sector alone captures 26.5% of the public investment budget, with an emphasis on high-speed railways, logistics connection lines, and major intercity routes. The dual objective is to strengthen the country’s role as a Eurasian hub and to relieve congestion in metropolises by providing alternatives to car‑only travel.
The rise of rail: crisscrossing the territory with fast lines
Since 2002, Turkey has invested nearly 64 billion dollars in its railway network, adding more than 3,000 km of track, including over 2,200 km of high-speed or intercity lines. Medium-term plans are ambitious: reach 17,500 km of track by 2028, then 28,500 km by 2053, with a growing share of double-track and signaled lines.
Among the flagship projects, the Ankara–Kırıkkale–Çorum–Samsun high-speed line is a north‑south backbone that will connect the capital to the Black Sea port. The full 293 km corridor is expected to reduce the Ankara–Samsun journey to 2h30, carry up to 12 million passengers and 14 million tons of freight per year, and link the northern axis with the Mediterranean port of Mersin via southern extensions. The Delice–Çorum section alone is designed for 200 km/h, with delivery expected toward the end of the decade.
In parallel, other corridors are under construction toward Izmir, Bursa, Gaziantep, and the Bulgarian border at Kapıkule, while a 509 km extension along the Black Sea coast is under study, between Samsun and Sarp, serving Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, and Rize. These rail lines are not mere transport infrastructure: they structure decisions about the location of logistics zones, industrial parks, new neighborhoods, and thus the shape of cities.
Highways, tunnels, and bridges: decongesting metropolises
Major road corridors complete this network. The Istanbul–Izmir motorway, inaugurated in 2019, reduced travel time from 8–10 hours to 3h30, while significantly increasing land values in between. Connected to the Osman Gazi Bridge over the Gulf of Izmit, it illustrates the “development corridor” strategy where roads, economic zones, and real estate projects interact.
Length in kilometers of the North Marmara motorway ring road bypassing Istanbul.
Underwater tunnel projects also play a structuring role. The Eurasia (Avrasya) road tunnel, double‑deck, connects the two shores of Istanbul in 15 minutes, compared to sometimes over an hour and a half before. The Marmaray immersed railway tunnel already carries 1.7 million passengers per day and reduced crossing times to four minutes. In the medium term, the three‑level “Great Istanbul Tunnel,” combining two road decks and a metro line, is expected to further strengthen network interconnection and relieve surface arteries.
New transport infrastructure (airport, canal, highways) is not neutral. It redistributes real estate pressure toward new poles: areas around Istanbul Airport and the future Canal Istanbul, the northern fringes of the metropolis, as well as medium-sized cities served by these new axes.
Canal Istanbul and megaprojects: catalysts or risks for the territory?
Among the most controversial projects, the Canal Istanbul – a 45 km artificial channel parallel to the Bosphorus – illustrates the intimate link between geostrategy, economy, and urbanization. Intended to secure and streamline maritime traffic (around 48,000 ships cross the Bosphorus each year), it involves the massive redevelopment of 152 km² of territory, including 37.5 km² for the canal itself, crossing Lake Küçükçekmece and dam areas.
Announcements around the canal have already triggered a surge in land prices in the districts concerned, transforming them into a gigantic laboratory of urban speculation. The question for the coming years will be whether urban planning, still being defined, will be able to contain sprawl effects, preserve fragile ecosystems, and ensure resilient neighborhoods in the face of seismic and water risks, or whether we will witness a poorly controlled extension of the urban footprint.
Smart cities: digital technology as a lever for urban transition
Beyond heavy infrastructure, Turkey is heavily banking on the digital transformation of its cities. A market estimated at nearly 1.75 billion dollars by 2024 is taking shape around the management of mobility, energy, waste, governance, and security.
The official website akillisehirler.gov.tr lists initiatives, while actors such as SAMPAŞ or the NOVUSENS institute have been supporting municipalities for years in deploying digital platforms, geographic information systems, or “Smart Box” and “Smart Municipality” solutions.
Istanbul, laboratory of the Turkish smart city
Istanbul launched a large‑scale smart transformation as early as 2015, explicitly aiming for the status of “world’s smartest city” by 2029. The metropolis relies on its municipal technology company İSBAK to develop projects in mobility, environment, energy, governance, and services for residents.
Among the operational or under‑development devices to improve urban services and quality of life.
Unified smart card system for transport and urban services, bike‑sharing network (İSBİKE), and digitally managed parking lots (İSPARK).
Traffic control center and electronic detection systems (EDS) for optimized traffic flow.
Smart meters, real‑time water network supervision (SCADA), and air quality monitoring center.
Municipal solid waste incineration plant with energy recovery for sustainable management.
Urban innovation center (Zemin Istanbul) and ‘living lab’ in Başakşehir to test innovative services in real conditions.
The extension of the metro – over 250 km today, 200 km additional under construction – is accompanied by an intensive development of intelligent transport systems: dynamic information panels, adaptive traffic light control, multimodal mobile applications. Car‑sharing and shared electric scooter services complete the ecosystem.
Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Konya: targeted projects
Ankara is also betting on a range of smart tools: city and traffic cameras, intelligent transport system (real‑time information, panels, density mapping), integrated waste management, smart drinking water management via SCADA, AnkaraKart card for transport. The capital is also developing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) supported by British funding (Global Future Cities program) and UN‑Habitat expertise, which resulted in a first generation of priority projects balancing accessibility, low‑carbon transition, and inclusion.
Amount in millions of euros of the EBRD loan for the construction of the Fahrettin Altay–Narlidere metro line in Izmir.
Bursa has created a “Smart City & Innovation” department that coordinates five axes: mobility, governance, environment, society, health. The SCADA system of the water operator BUSKİ enables fine network management, while projects involving biogas energy, sewage sludge incineration, or municipal solar plants illustrate the growing integration of energy into urban planning.
The city of Konya has established itself as a national reference in sustainable urban transport. It deploys a real‑time passenger information system (ATUS), a centralized traffic management center (METIS), a bike‑sharing service, and a network of over 500 km of cycle paths. In addition, it is experimenting with a catenary‑free tram, an innovation that eliminates overhead poles and cables to preserve public space.
A market for urban solutions boosted by international financing
These projects are broadly supported by international banks and agencies. The World Bank launched the “Sustainable Cities” program in Turkey as early as 2016, with tranches of $133 million, $91.5 million, and then $560 million to finance sustainable urban infrastructure. The EBRD, through its “Green Cities” program, supports Izmir, Ankara, Istanbul, Gaziantep, and Bursa. The U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) created the “U.S.–Türkiye Next Generation Cities” initiative, funding studies in Istanbul (congestion management), Gaziantep (smart city roadmap), Ankara (bus line optimization), and the Middle East Technical University (METU smart campus).
This constellation of financing reflects a shared conviction: Turkey’s urban future will also depend on cities’ ability to leverage data, interconnect networks, conserve resources, and involve citizens in decision‑making.
Climate‑resilient urban planning: nature in the city, climate plans, and adaptation
While technologies take center stage, Turkey’s urban agenda is equally shaped by the need to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions.
Local climate plans and city networks
A recent study shows that 23 out of 30 Turkish metropolises already have a Local Climate Action Plan (LCCAP), with 18 in the European format of Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans (SECAP). Twenty‑seven cities have joined the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. A specific network, the “Sustainable Urban Development Network,” brings together 20 municipalities – from Izmir Metropolitan to Van Metropolitan, including medium‑sized cities like Çaycuma, Espiye, and Ceylanpınar – around a cooperation protocol to share experiences, align strategies, and develop joint projects.
The municipality of Kadıköy, in Istanbul, is a pioneer with its Sustainable Energy and Climate Adaptation Action Plan, adopted in 2018 and extended with training sessions on strategic planning and Sustainable Development Goals. Mersin is preparing its own climate adaptation plan with European Union support.
The Climate Change Adaptation Grant Program (CCAGP), funded with 6.8 million euros, also finances local projects, while UNDP and MoEUCC update the National Adaptation Strategy (NASAP) and develop urban adaptation plans for Konya, Muğla, Sakarya, and Samsun.
Green infrastructure and nature‑based solutions
At the heart of these plans, a priority emerges: mainstreaming nature‑based solutions (NbS) and green and blue infrastructure (ecological corridors, vegetated streets, rain gardens, permeable surfaces, river renaturation, green roofs). The aim is to reduce urban heat islands, absorb extreme rainfall, and restore ecological connectivity.
Several Turkish cities are implementing ecological initiatives: Konya is developing the “Gedavet Ecological Corridor,” a pilot green infrastructure project. Izmir carried out the European program “Izmir‑Balçova / Green Re‑Vision” in 2019 to establish an urban resilience framework. Istanbul is testing green roofs and green grids, combined with detailed biodiversity mapping to target protection areas, reduce light pollution, and increase soil permeability.
“Sponge city” projects, Water‑Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD), and green streets are gradually becoming references for urban planning services, although legislative work is still needed to secure the inclusion of these measures in building regulations and local plans.
Turkey’s forests offset nearly 34 million tons of greenhouse gases in 2021.
Financing the transition: public banks and international institutions
The crucial question remains that of resources. The Provincial Bank (İlbank) plays a central role in financing municipal infrastructure. Between 2018 and 2021, it supported over 3,100 projects for a volume of about 22 billion Turkish liras, and in 2022 it set aside 37 billion liras (nearly 2 billion dollars) for “climate‑friendly” projects. A protocol with the World Bank, signed in 2021, also paves the way for $3.5 billion in concessional loans and up to $66.5 million in grants.
These resources help co‑finance green infrastructure projects, modernization of water networks, waste treatment, trams, electric buses, and rehabilitation of at‑risk neighborhoods. But they also raise the issue of selection and prioritization: studies highlight the importance of strengthening project engineering, feasibility studies, and coordination between institutions to avoid duplication and ineffective “showcase” investments.
Urban renewal and housing: combining seismic safety, inclusion, and the real estate market
Turkish urban development projects in the coming years will also be largely shaped by the enormous task of renovating existing housing and neighborhoods. The 2023 earthquakes accelerated reconstruction programs in the affected provinces, but the challenge extends beyond these territories: in cities like Istanbul, a large share of buildings constructed before 2002 do not meet current seismic standards.
A legislative arsenal for “urban transformation”
Since the early 2000s, the country has built a dense legal framework to enable “urban transformation”: the Law on the Transformation of Areas Under Disaster Risk (No. 6306), Article 73 of the Municipal Law (No. 5393), the Law on the Protection of Cultural and Natural Assets (No. 2863), and the Law on the Renovation of Historical Urban Fabric (No. 5366), among others. These texts authorize large‑scale demolition and reconstruction, often justified by seismic risk reduction.
Many regeneration projects in Istanbul have targeted low‑income neighborhoods, obsolete industrial areas, or degraded historical fabric. Sectors like Fikirtepe, Tarlabaşı, Sulukule, Ayvansaray, Süleymaniye, and some neighborhoods of the historic peninsula have been subject to renewal plans. These plans often involve massive demolitions, replotting, and new construction. Such transformations can lead to heritage loss, gentrification, and social tensions.
These past experiences have fueled an intense debate on how to conduct urban transformation: should a top‑down approach focused on the built environment be favored, or should it be co‑built with residents, taking into account economic fabrics, uses, and the memory of places? Movements like that of Gülsuyu, on Istanbul’s Asian shore, where residents organized with academics to obtain a revision of a plan deemed threatening to their neighborhood, show that another path is possible.
In the coming years, social pressure could push toward another model. After a phase of nominal price surges, the Turkish real estate market experienced a sharp slowdown in transactions in 2023, weighed down by interest rates exceeding 30% and inflation. Modest and middle‑income households find themselves caught between sharply rising rents (over 70% annual increase for rents in 2025) and limited access to credit.
The ministry plans to build at least 500,000 social housing units over two to three years as part of a large national program.
These initiatives add to the regeneration efforts in the earthquake‑stricken regions, where 550,000 housing units are planned, nearly half already delivered or under construction. The challenge, again, is to avoid reproducing vulnerable urban models identically, by systematically integrating seismic standards, energy efficiency, green spaces, and accessibility to services.
Cities, climate, and mobility: governance in flux
The success of this urban agenda ultimately requires evolving governance. Recent years have seen a proliferation of plans, schemes, and national, regional, or sectoral strategies: development plans, regional strategies (GAP, DAP, DOKAP, KOP), national spatial plans under development, climate plans, SUMPs in several metropolises, etc. But diagnoses point to a fragmentation of responsibilities, with more than twenty national institutions holding planning powers and a myriad of “special‑purpose plans” (tourism, environment, heritage, transport…) that sometimes overlap without coherence.
The rise of metropolises
In this complex landscape, large municipalities – particularly Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir – play an increasingly structuring role. Istanbul developed, with support from the British Global Future Cities program and the consulting firm Arup, the country’s first Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP). This document, aligned with European guidelines, sets 2040 targets for accessibility, public transport modal share, road safety, air quality, and reducing car dependence, and identifies 26 priority projects around three axes: low‑carbon transition, intermodality, and congestion reduction.
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality is developing a participatory planning approach through its dedicated agency and consultation tools. It implements various initiatives including youth councils, start‑up incubators, support for artists, and inclusion projects for migrants and marginalized or homeless people. In addition, the city benefits from its membership in the Eurocities network to share best practices and access European funding.
Ankara, for its part, strengthens coherence between its spatial plans and its sustainable mobility objectives, while Izmir works to integrate its multiple plans (transport, climate, logistics, urban logistics, bike‑pedestrian) to avoid contradictions. Studies have already identified gaps, notably a weak consideration of active modes (walking, cycling) and demand management in older planning documents, which guides ongoing revisions.
Networks of actors and participation
At the national level, networks like the “Sustainable Urban Transport Network Turkey” facilitated by WRI Türkiye bring together over 300 members – NGOs, businesses, local authorities – to promote sustainable urban transport, equitable access to walking, cycling, and public transport, and the integration of vulnerable users into mobility policies. This network organizes study visits (Brussels, Barcelona), regional workshops, micro‑grants for innovative projects (improving women’s experience in transport, cargo‑bike network, etc.), and contributes to the development of national action plans.
The municipalities that signed the Sustainable Urban Development Protocol align their 2020‑2024 agendas with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), climate policies, and the fight against inequalities. Training sessions, such as those organized by Kadıköy, help municipal services localize the SDGs, share good practices, and develop public policies on the climate crisis, poverty, and inequalities.
Cities under constraint, but rich in opportunities
All these developments sketch an urban landscape in full transformation. Turkey faces considerable challenges: rapid urbanization, a built heritage often vulnerable to earthquakes, high climate risks, strong social pressure on housing and services, an economy still marked by real estate and construction cycles. But it also has assets: a large youth population, genuine urban creativity, increasingly structured local institutions, growing engineering capacity, and solid international partnerships.
Some summary data helps measure the scale of the effort.
Summary of key data to quantify and evaluate the scale of actions or investments made.
Presentation of indicators and statistics for a concrete understanding of achievements.
| Key Indicator | Value / Target |
|---|---|
| Public investment budget 2026 | 1.92 trillion TRY (≈ $44.4 billion) |
| Share of transport & communication (2026) | 26.5% of investment budget |
| Current metro length in Istanbul | > 250 km (≈ 200 km additional under construction) |
| Rail investments since 2002 | ≈ $64 billion |
| Total rail network length target (2028) | 17,500 km |
| Urban population (approximate) | 75–93% of total population |
| Cities signatory to the Global Covenant of Mayors | 94 Turkish municipalities |
| Metropolises with local climate action plans (LCCAP) | 23 out of 30 |
| Cities in the Sustainable Urban Dev. Network | 20 municipalities |
On the climate front, another set of figures illustrates the challenges and responses:
| Domain | Key Data |
|---|---|
| Share of urban CO₂ emissions (2015) | 65% of national total |
| Urban emissions from energy sector (2015) | 81% of energy emissions |
| Flood losses (1948‑2020) | $2.5 billion and 1,401 deaths |
| Population on coasts < 10 m elevation | > 22.2 million residents |
| Area flooded if +1 m sea level rise | 1,600 km² |
| Emissions offset by forests (2021) | ≈ 34 Mt CO₂e |
| Local authorities integrating NbS and green infrastructure | Growing number (Konya, Izmir, Istanbul, etc.) |
These data show both the scale of the problem and the room for progress. The generalization of SUMPs, the rise of local climate plans, the expansion of green infrastructure, modernization of water and waste networks, and the gradual integration of nature‑based solutions point toward a new model of Turkish urbanization, less focused on physical growth alone and more attentive to resilience, sustainability, and inclusion.
Toward a new generation of urban projects
What is at stake today in Turkey goes far beyond building record‑breaking bridges, spectacular tunnels, or giant airports. Upcoming urban development projects bring several imperatives into tension: modernizing infrastructure and services, securing populations against risks, decarbonizing mobility and buildings, preserving natural and cultural heritage, while meeting a still colossal housing demand.
Urban regeneration experiences in Turkey offer key lessons. In Istanbul, the Fener‑Balat, Süleymaniye, and Tarlabaşı projects highlighted the risks of a heritage approach that excludes residents. In Ankara, the Hacı Bayram neighborhood project demonstrated the need to link conservation, urban functions, and social life. Finally, in Gülsuyu, citizen mobilization, supported by universities and independent professionals, illustrated the benefits of participatory planning.
At the same time, more recent cases – such as the smart transformation of the Kepez Santral district in Antalya, the ecological corridors of Konya, the climate plans of Kadıköy and Mersin, or the sustainable mobility projects of Izmir – outline paths toward a more integrated approach, combining digital, climate, mobility, inclusion, and quality of life.
Beyond instruments and funding, a genuine “project culture” is being built, where the keywords are coordination, transparency, participation, and evaluation. If Turkey manages to consolidate these practices, its future urban development projects could profoundly transform not only its landscapes but also the relationship between cities, their inhabitants, and the environment.
Analysis of urban development in Turkey
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Cyril Jarnias is an independent expert in international wealth management with over 20 years of experience. As an expatriate himself, he is dedicated to helping individuals and business leaders build, protect, and pass on their wealth with complete peace of mind.
On his website, cyriljarnias.com, he shares his expertise on international real estate, offshore company formation, and expatriation.
Thanks to his expertise, he offers sound advice to optimize his clients' wealth management. Cyril Jarnias is also recognized for his appearances in many prestigious media outlets such as BFM Business, les Français de l’étranger, Le Figaro, Les Echos, and Mieux vivre votre argent, where he shares his knowledge and know-how in wealth management.
